\u3000\u3 Guangdong Shaoneng Group Co.Ltd(000601) 088 China Shenhua Energy Company Limited(601088) )
Core view:
China Shenhua Energy Company Limited(601088) introduction: China’s leading coal enterprise has a complete industrial chain of coal upstream and downstream. The upstream is coal, the midstream is transportation, and the downstream is power generation and coal chemical industry.
Reduce the cost and increase the efficiency of outsourcing, and the profit growth space can be expected: the outsourcing volume may drop to 110 million tons from 2022 to 2024, so as to improve the comprehensive gross profit margin of the coal division by reducing the cost and increasing the efficiency. According to the analysis of the business model, from 2022 to 2024, by reducing the purchased coal and reducing the business of the low interest rate sector, the comprehensive gross profit margin of the coal business sector may be 35%, 35% and 34.8%, significantly higher than the gross profit margin of 27.6% in 2021.
Profit thickening improves roe and dividend yield: as the coal and power generation sectors are more mature, the reduction of capital expenditure can bring more profit retention for dividends. According to our profit forecast and 90% predicted dividend payment ratio, the dividend amount is expected to reach 57.8 billion / 66.2 billion / 70.6 billion in 2022 / 2023 / 2024, with a corresponding dividend yield of 9.6% / 11% / 11.8%. We expect that in the future, under the situation of tight coal supply and demand, the enterprise roe will reach 19.07% in 2022 and more than 21% in 2023.
Profit forecast and Valuation: we predict that the revenue of the coal segment will increase by 5.8%, 11.2% and 6.2% year-on-year from 2022 to 2024, and the overall revenue scale of the company will increase by 5%, 10.59% and 6% year-on-year from 2022 to 2024; Based on the analysis of the business model, it is estimated that the net profit attributable to the parent company from 2022 to 2024 will be 64.2 billion, 73.6 billion and 78.4 billion respectively, and the EPS will be 323, 3.7 and 3.95 yuan respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 27.6%, 14.7% and 6.5%. Combining PE and DDM model valuation method, the company was given a target price of 42.38 yuan and maintained a “buy” rating.
Risk tip: economic growth is less than expected; The recovery of housing construction was less than expected; The investment of construction capacity exceeded expectations
