\u3000\u30 Xuchang Ketop Testing Research Institute Co.Ltd(003008) 94 Marssenger Kitchenware Co.Ltd(300894) )
Key investment points
The company disclosed the annual report of 2021:
2021: revenue of RMB 2.32 billion, yoy+44%; Parent 380 million, yoy + 37%; Deduct non RMB 350 million, yoy + 37%; Corresponding to 2021q4: revenue of 720 million, yoy + 18%; 100 million to parent, yoy-14%; Deduct non 100 million, yoy-10%; Previously, the company has issued a performance forecast, which is expected to achieve a net interest rate of 370430 million, and the actual performance falls at the lower edge of the forecast.
Revenue side: integrated stoves maintain high growth
Quarter by quarter, the growth rate of Q1-Q4 is 180% / 48% / 37% / 18%. It is expected that the decline of Q4 growth rate is due to: ① the delayed confirmation of double 11 e-commerce ② the decline of Q4 growth rate of the industry.
By product, the income of integrated stove is 2.04 billion, yoy + 45%; Water washing products reached 130 million, yoy + 25%, and integrated stoves maintained a high growth rate.
By channel, the online sales revenue reached 970 million, yoy + 53%, accounting for 39%. According to the data of ovicloud, the online market share of the company further increased to 23.4% in 2021, leading the second place by 12.1%; Offline sales revenue reached 1.35 billion, yoy + 38%, accounting for 61%. The company actively expanded offline channels. In 2021, more than 200 dealers were added, and the number of terminal stores increased to more than 2000, a net increase of about 200.
Profit side: Q4 profit pressure
Gross profit margin: – 5.5pct to 46%, Q4 to 43%, yoy to 10.4% for the whole year. The main reasons for the decline are ① cost pressure: the company’s direct material cost increased by 63% and manufacturing expenses increased by 106%, both higher than the revenue growth. The growth rate of manufacturing expenses is significantly higher, which is expected to be related to the company’s inclusion of transportation expenses in the cost item; ② Q4 online promotion overweight: the annual online gross profit margin was – 8%, higher than the decline offline.
Expense ratio: the annual sales, management and R & D expenses were – 3.1 / – 0.16 / – 0.39pct to 21.8% / 3.73% / 3.19% respectively, of which the sales expense ratio decreased significantly due to the adjustment of accounting standards, and the expense ratio also decreased in Q4;
Net interest rate: under active fee control, the annual net interest rate decreased from -0.89pct to 16.16% year-on-year, and Q4 decreased by 5.5pct to 14% year-on-year.
Investment suggestions:
Considering that the price of raw materials is still high in the near future, we maintain the company’s revenue forecast for 20222023, reduce the company’s profit forecast for the same period, and introduce the profit forecast for 2024. It is estimated that the sales revenue will reach 2.35, 3.05 and 3.82 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 31%, 25% and 22%, and the net profit attributable to the parent company will reach 510, 660 and 810 million yuan (originally 550 and 710 million yuan), with a year-on-year increase of 35%, 29% and 24%. Maintain the industry leader Marssenger Kitchenware Co.Ltd(300894) “buy” rating.
Risk tips:
The entry of cross-border giants led to the deterioration of competition, the expansion of channels was less than expected, and the cost of raw materials rose sharply again.
