\u3000\u3 China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) 281 Accelink Technologies Co.Ltd(002281) )
Performance review
On April 14, 2022, the company released its annual report. In the past 21 years, the company achieved an operating revenue of 6.486 billion yuan, Y / y7.7 billion yuan 28%； The net profit attributable to the parent company is 567 million yuan, Y / y16.5 million yuan 39%； Deduct 470 million yuan of net profit not attributable to parent company, Y / Y3 44%。 In line with market expectations.
Business analysis
Strong overseas demand, guaranteed delivery and growth, and increased gross profit margin. Among them, the revenue of transmission products was 3.848 billion yuan, Y / y1.2 billion yuan 07%, gross profit margin 28.33%, Y / Y0 5PP； The revenue of access and data products was 2.602 billion yuan, Y / y5.5 billion yuan 19%, gross profit margin 17.54%, Y / Y0 54PP。 Strong overseas demand, with a revenue of 2.118 billion yuan, Y / y21 46%。 In the second half of the year, affected by the shutdown of the epidemic, there were problems in the industry, such as supply chain shortage, extension of delivery time, transportation delay and so on. The company maintained a stable delivery capacity, with an annual shipment of 234 million, Y / Y8 06%。 The overall cost was properly controlled, and the three rates decreased by 0.4pp.
We will continue to invest in R & D, increase and expand production capacity and accelerate the evolution to high-end products. In 2021, the R & D investment was 748 million yuan, Y / Y14 million yuan 96%, accounting for 11.53% of revenue, Y / y0.05% 77PP。 It is planned to raise 1.773 billion yuan through non-public offering of shares to invest in the production and construction of high-end optical communication devices and the construction of high-end optoelectronic device R & D center. After being put into operation, it can form an annual scale of 6.1 million 5g / F5G optical devices, 133500 coherent devices, modules and advanced white boxes, and 700000 digital communication modules. The new R & D center will carry out the development of silicon-based optoelectronic advanced packaging technology, silicon-based optoelectronic products, 50gpon technology, wavelength selective switch (WSS), ultra wideband amplifier technology and other technologies to increase technical reserves. The construction period of the production and construction project of high-end optical communication devices is 2.5 years, and it is estimated that about 250 million yuan of income will be added every year after it is completed.
The market of 5g wireless access module has warmed up, and the demand for data communication optical module is strong. The 5g construction cycle is longer than 4G. According to lightcounting, the global market will have an annual demand for wireless prequel modules of more than 25 million in the next few years; The demand for Ethernet optical modules will exceed US $7 billion by 2026, including high-speed 400g and 800g optical modules cagr10% +. The company is an optoelectronic device manufacturer with the most complete product coverage, the largest production scale and the most complete market system in China. According to the statistics of industry organization omdia, 21q3 has an overall global market share of 7.8%, increasing 1pp. It is expected that the revenue growth of the company will exceed the industry average in the next three years.
Profit adjustment and investment suggestions
We lowered the revenue growth rate, increased the gross profit margin, and increased the fixed asset investment and R & D expense ratio. It is estimated that the company's revenue in 22-24 years is 72.60 (- 13%) / 81.71 (- 13%) / 9.152 billion yuan, the net profit attributable to the parent company is 5.97 (- 21.8%) / 7.07 (- 19%) / 786 million yuan, EPS is 0.85/1.01/1.12 yuan, corresponding to 19 / 16 / 15 times of the current stock price PE respectively. The valuation has high cost performance and maintains the "buy" rating.
Risk tips
The introduction of high-end chips is less than expected by overseas customers, and the risk is uncertain.
