\u3000\u30 Beijing Zznode Technologies Co.Ltd(003007) 69 Shenzhen Dynanonic Co.Ltd(300769) )
Key investment points
The company’s Q1 net profit attributable to the parent company was 762 million yuan, with a month on month increase of 140277% / 36.87%, greatly exceeding market expectations. In 2022, Q1 company’s revenue was 3.374 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 561.88%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 762 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 140277%; Deduct non net profit of 756 million yuan, an increase of 2136.2% year-on-year. In terms of profitability, Q1 gross profit margin was 34.78%, with a year-on-year increase of 17.38pct and a month on month increase of 0.28pct; The net interest rate attributable to the parent company was 22.58%, with a year-on-year increase of 12.63 PCT and a month on month increase of 0.93 PCT; Deducting non net interest rate of 22.39%, it increased by 15.77pct year-on-year and 1.02pct month on month.
22q1 shipped 35000 tons, with a year-on-year increase of 150% +, and the profit increased significantly month on month. It is expected to maintain a high growth in 22 years. We expect the company to ship 35000 tons of lithium iron cathode in 2022q1, with a year-on-year increase of 150% +, which is basically flat on a month on month basis. The downstream demand is strong. The epidemic has no impact on the production side and is still full of production and sales. The output of Q2 is expected to increase further on a month on month basis. In 2022, the company’s orders are full. We expect that the annual delivery is expected to exceed 230000 tons, with a year-on-year increase of 155% +, and the equity shipment is expected to reach 200000 tons. In terms of profitability, the selling price of Q1 lithium iron cathode is about 109000 yuan / ton (including tax), an increase of about 30% month on month, which is mainly affected by the rise of lithium carbonate price. We calculate that the company’s net profit per ton of 22q1 is about 210 Yunnan Yuntou Ecology And Environment Technology Co.Ltd(002200) 0 yuan / ton, an increase of about 50% month on month, and the profitability is greatly improved. We expect that excluding the impact of inventory income, the profit per ton of Q1 is expected to reach about 10 Yihua Healthcare Co.Ltd(000150) 00 yuan / ton, The company’s continued large-scale production cost reduction and the industry’s short supply have improved its bargaining power. We expect that the profit level in 22 years is expected to maintain 10000 / ton, flat and slightly increased year-on-year.
The company’s layout of manganese iron lithium is leading in the industry and its competitiveness is further strengthened. It is expected to start small batch mass production in 2022h2. Lithium ferromanganese phosphate maintains the stability of lithium iron and improves the energy density. We expect it to become the upgrading direction of traditional lithium iron and middle-end ternary. The company has made a technical breakthrough in the development of new phosphate cathode materials. The products have passed the small-scale test link and have been preliminarily put into the construction of R & D pilot test line. The products have passed the small batch verification of downstream customers and have been highly recognized by customers, We expect that 2022h2 is expected to be shipped in small quantities, and 110000 tons of capacity will be released in 2023, which is expected to be mass produced. The company’s new lithium manganese iron phosphate has a higher voltage platform, and the energy density of the battery can be further improved when it is used with lithium supplement agent. In addition, 25000 tons of lithium supplement agent is expected to be mass produced in 2023, which can further improve the cycle life and energy density of iron lithium cathode and strengthen the technical advantages of the company.
Profit forecast and investment rating: considering that the company is a leading enterprise in iron and lithium industry and the rapid expansion of production capacity, we adjusted the net profit attributable to the parent company from 2022 to 2024 to RMB 2.019/25.593329 billion (the original forecast value was RMB 1.557/2.246/3.2 billion), with a year-on-year increase of 152% / 27% / 30%, corresponding to pe25 / 20 / 15x. We gave 30 times PE in 2022, the target price was RMB 678.9, and maintained the “buy” rating.
Risk tip: the sales volume is lower than expected and the profit level is lower than expected.
