\u3000\u3 Jointo Energy Investment Co.Ltd.Hebei(000600) 660 Fuyao Glass Industry Group Co.Ltd(600660) )
The revenue of 2022q1 reached a record high, and the total profit excluding the rise of exchange, soda ash and sea freight was + 24% year-on-year Fuyao Glass Industry Group Co.Ltd(600660) 2022q1 achieved a revenue of 6.548 billion (year-on-year + 14.75%, month on month + 1.51%), and the revenue reached a record high in a single quarter; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 871 million (year-on-year + 1.86%, month on month + 58.28%), and the total profit after deducting the appreciation of RMB, exchange, soda ash and shipping was 1.37 billion (year-on-year + 24%). Overall, in 2021q1, the company's revenue reached a record high, and the revenue growth rate steadily exceeded that of the automobile industry by 12pct (automobile output + 1.95% year-on-year). It is expected that it is mainly due to the year-on-year increase of ASP and market share of automobile glass, and non recurring factors such as exchange, soda ash and sea freight prices affect the growth performance of profit side.
The appreciation of RMB, the rise of sea freight and soda ash prices affected the gross profit margin, and the expense rate was flat year-on-year. Considering the comparable caliber 2021q1 adjusted by accounting standards, the gross profit margin of the company was 35.75%, with a year-on-year increase of -1.50pct, mainly due to the impact of RMB appreciation, sea freight and soda ash price rise. 22q1's "gross profit margin - sales expense rate - management expense rate" was 23.63%, with a year-on-year rate of -0.80pct and a month on month rate of + 2.79pct. Under the comparable caliber, 22q1 was higher than 21q1. After adjustment according to the new accounting policy, the company's 2022q1 four rate was 19.00%, with a year-on-year increase of + 0.01pct, of which the sales / management / Finance / R & D expense rate was 4.51/7.61/2.74/4.14% respectively, with a year-on-year change of -0.23 / - 0.47 / + 0.70 / + 0.01pct.
The increase in the value of single car is accelerated, and we are optimistic about innovative products of automotive glass in the long term. Germany: Germany's sam22q1 is expected to have a revenue of 27.81 million euros (38 million euros in the same period last year), and 20q4 / 21q1 / 21q2 / 21q3 / 21q4 / 22q1 is expected to have a loss of more than 4 million euros / 5.1 million euros / 5.2 million euros / 806 / 2025 / 6.71 million euros respectively; US side: Fuyao us 22q1 has an estimated revenue of US $167 million, an estimated operating profit of US $19.49 million, a net profit margin of about 8%, a 21-year revenue of RMB 3.9 billion, a net profit of RMB 270 million and a net interest rate of about 7%. In 2021, the proportion of Fuyao intelligent panoramic sky glass, dimmable glass and other high value-added products increased by 3.3pct, and the price of automobile glass per square meter continued to increase from 152.4 yuan in 2016 to 180.5 yuan in 2021, with a CAGR of 3.44%. 22q1 expects ASP to accelerate. In March 2022, Fuyao and Tsinghua University jointly established the intelligent industrial Internet research center to reduce losses and increase efficiency; And introduced new technologies such as luminous exterior decoration system and etc front windshield to make the automobile glass more intelligent.
Risk tip: the uncertainty of overseas epidemic affects the progress of the company's auto glass business and Sam integration.
Investment suggestion: maintain the profit forecast and raise it to the "buy" rating.
In the early stage, due to the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, car core shortage, epidemic and other factors, the company's share price callback range is large, the current safety margin is high, and the market is overly worried about profits in the early stage, which is expected to be repaired in the short term; In the medium term, after the epidemic situation and supply chain pressure are relieved, the company is expected to become a variety with relatively strong fundamentals in the automotive sector (surpassing the industry); In the long run, after the realization of ASP promotion logic, the industry growth attribute is highlighted, which is expected to bring valuation flexibility. The average valuation of comparable companies in 2023 is 21 times. We updated the target valuation of Fuyao Glass Industry Group Co.Ltd(600660) 2023 to 39-44 yuan (18-20xpe in 2023). The current stock price still has 37% room for improvement from the target valuation and was raised to the "buy" rating.
