\u3000\u3 Jointo Energy Investment Co.Ltd.Hebei(000600) 256 Guanghui Energy Co.Ltd(600256) )
Core view
The dividend performance exceeded the forecast and the cash performance exceeded the forecast. The company achieved an operating revenue of 24.865 billion in 2021, a year-on-year increase of + 64.30%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 5.003 billion, a year-on-year increase of + 274.40%. 21q1 achieved an operating revenue of 9.398 billion, a year-on-year increase of + 70.10%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 2.213 billion, a year-on-year increase of + 175.67%, exceeding the upper limit of 2.06 billion yuan in the first quarter. The company plans to pay a cash dividend of RMB 2.626 billion, accounting for 52%, accounting for 125.76% of the annual net profit attributable to the parent company in recent three years.
The volume and price of main products increased simultaneously, and the flexible sales of LNG increased profits. In 2021, the sales volume of the company's main products increased significantly: in the coal sector, the sales volume of raw coal was + 121% year-on-year, and the sales volume of upgraded coal was + 35% year-on-year; In the natural gas sector, the LNG unloading volume of Qidong was + 22% year-on-year, and the sales volume was + 31% year-on-year; In the coal chemical industry sector, the sales volume of methanol was + 9% year-on-year, and the sales volume of coal tar was + 15% year-on-year. In terms of price, according to wind, in 2021, thermal coal increased by 45%, LNG increased by 19%, methanol increased by 64% and coal tar increased by 46%.
In 2022, the company's LNG currently adopts the profit oriented "one gas and multiple sales" sales mode, and newly introduces the mode of international entrepot trade and terminal agent unloading service in the window period, which helps to improve the company's profitability when the import price difference is unfavorable, forming the unique competitive advantage of Guanghui Qidong LNG terminal. The core focus of the 14th five year plan: the increment of Malang coal mine and Qidong terminal. The planned capacity of Malang coal mine of the company is 15 million tons. At present, relevant procedures are still being handled in the early stage. It is expected to be completed and put into operation in 2023 and gradually reach the production capacity in 2024; At present, the turnover capacity of Qidong LNG terminal has reached 3 million tons. The company's 5 storage tanks are expected to be completed and put into operation in the second half of 22 years. At that time, the turnover capacity will reach 5 million tons. Later, the company will add 67 storage tanks, which are expected to be completed and put into operation in 24-25 years. At that time, the total turnover capacity of the company will reach 10 million tons. In addition, the company's ethylene glycol production project from raw gas generated by the clean coal refining project has started trial operation and is expected to be put into operation gradually in the second quarter of 22 years, contributing profits.
The core focus of the Tenth Five Year Plan: green energy transformation. In the context of the dual carbon policy, the company also officially started the pace of transformation to green energy. At present, it is promoting the implementation of carbon dioxide capture, storage and oil displacement (CCUs) project, and will also accelerate the layout of the development of hydrogen energy industry in the future. In terms of hydrogen energy, the company plans to build 537 sets of 1000nm3 / h electrolytic water hydrogen production units, supporting the wind room with photovoltaic new energy power generation, with a total installed capacity of 6.25 million KW, of which the total installed capacity of new energy power generation is 3.2 million KW at the end of the 14th five year plan and 3.05 million KW at the end of the 15th five year plan.
Risk tip: energy prices fall, and the progress of projects under construction does not meet expectations.
Investment suggestion: it is estimated that the net profit attributable to the parent company in 22-24 years will be 9.1/10.4 billion yuan, EPS = 1.38/1.59/1.65 yuan, the current stock price corresponds to PE = 7 / 6 / 6x, and the "buy" rating will be maintained.
