\u3000\u30 Xuchang Ketop Testing Research Institute Co.Ltd(003008) 94 Marssenger Kitchenware Co.Ltd(300894) )
The annual revenue and profit increased beautifully, and the performance in the fourth quarter was suppressed by raw materials. In 2021, the company achieved a revenue of 2.319 billion / + 43.65%, a net profit attributable to the parent company of 376 million / + 36.53%, and a net profit not attributable to the parent company of 353 million / + 36.54%. Among them, Q4's revenue is 721 million / + 18.29%, the net profit attributable to the parent is 102 million / - 14.43%, and the net profit not attributable to the parent is 101 million / - 10.23%. The company plans to pay a cash dividend of 3 yuan (including tax) for every 10 shares. The company's annual revenue and profit increased strongly, and the growth rate of Q4 revenue decreased. Considering that the contract liabilities of the company increased by nearly 100% year-on-year and month on month Q3 at the end of 2021, Q4 revenue may be affected by the cross period of online revenue recognition. Q4 performance is under pressure. On the one hand, due to the pressure of raw materials, on the other hand, the company has withdrawn 14 million bad debt reserves for Suning's accounts receivable. If added back, the annual net profit attributable to the parent company will be 390 million / + 41.55%.
Strengthen brand building and vigorously explore channels, with strong growth in all categories. In 2021, the company's revenue from integrated stoves increased by 45.3% to 2.04 billion, and the revenue from washing products increased by 24.5% to 130 million. By channel: in 2021, the offline revenue increased by 37.6% to 1.35 billion, the net number of distribution stores increased by 200 to 2000 (+ 11%), and the single store shipment increased by 23% to about 680000. Online channels continued to strengthen their operations on tmall, jd.com and other platforms, with revenue increasing by 53.0% to 970 million. The company continues to make intensive efforts in channel and marketing: on the channel side, the company increases the development and support of dealers, assists dealers in developing emerging channels such as engineering, finishing, Ka and sinking, and empowers dealers. In 2021, there will be a net increase of more than 200 dealers, and the delivery volume of a single dealer is expected to increase by 19% to 900000. China's CCTV advertising and variety sponsorship are also promoted by the traditional marketing media, tiktok and jitter as the representative of the new media promotion strategy, and brand building. With the strengthening of marketing, product research and development, channel strengthening and digitization, the company's Wuxi Online Offline Communication Information Technology Co.Ltd(300959) market share has increased comprehensively. According to ovicloud, in 2021, the offline market share of the company's integrated stove increased by 6.9pct to 21.3%, and the online listing share increased by 4.3pct to 23.4%, ranking first in the industry.
The profit is greatly affected by the cost of raw materials, and the profit of the whole year remains stable. In 2021, the company's gross profit margin fell by 5.5pct to 46.1% due to the adjustment of accounting standards for transportation cost. In terms of gross sales difference, the gross sales difference fell by 2.3pct in 2021. The gross sales difference in Q4 fell by 7.8pct, which is expected to be more affected by the cost. In terms of expenses, the company's management / Finance / R & D expense ratio has declined, decreasing by 0.2/0.4/0.4pct to 3.7% / - 0.8% / 3.2% respectively in 2021. The company's annual net profit margin decreased by 0.9pct to 16.2%, and Q4 net profit margin decreased by 5.5pct to 14.1%. If Suning's 14 million bad debt reserves withdrawn by the company are added back, the annual net interest rate will be slightly reduced by 0.2pct, Q4 net interest rate will be reduced by 3.5pct, and the annual profitability will remain stable.
Risk warning: industry competition intensifies; The price of raw materials has risen sharply; Less than expected channel development.
Investment suggestion: lower the profit forecast and maintain the "buy" rating.
Considering the recent high volatility of raw material prices, the profit forecast is lowered. It is estimated that the net profit attributable to the parent company from 2022 to 2024 will be 490 / 640 / 840 million (the previous value was 540 / 7.0 / 880 million), with a growth rate of 31.6% / 30.1% / 30.9%; Diluted EPS = 1.22/1.58/2.07 yuan, corresponding to PE = 29 / 22 / 17x, maintaining the "buy" rating.
