Benefiting from the rising coal price and the rising overall profitability of the coal industry, the performance of listed coal enterprises generally increased in a large proportion in 2021, and continued the high growth trend in the first quarter of this year.
On April 14, Anhui Hengyuan Coal Industry And Electricity Power Co.Ltd(600971) ( Anhui Hengyuan Coal Industry And Electricity Power Co.Ltd(600971) ) released the financial report for 2021. During the reporting period, the operating revenue was 6.749 billion yuan, an increase of 30% year-on-year; The net profit was 1.387 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 80%, and the profit level reached a new high since the listing.
The outstanding performance of the coal industry has been reflected in the secondary market. Since this year, the performance of the coal sector has been eye-catching. The Wande coal index (886003) has increased by 38% and several stocks have increased by more than 60%, among which Pingdingshan Tianan Coal Mining Co.Ltd(601666) the share price has doubled since the beginning of the year.
What is the follow-up trend of coal price? Can coal enterprises continue to make big profits in 2022? It is generally expected in the industry that under the background of steady growth, the coal demand still has a certain toughness this year. With the implementation of the policy of ensuring supply and increasing production and the further improvement of the coal price formation mechanism, the coal market will tend to be stable in 2022, the price center will move down and fluctuate in a narrow range within a reasonable range.
net profit hit a new high since listing
After two consecutive years of decline in profits, Anhui Hengyuan Coal Industry And Electricity Power Co.Ltd(600971) turned upward in 2021, and the net profit increased by more than 80%, reaching 1.387 billion yuan, a new high since listing.
In terms of quarterly performance, it contributed more than 60% of profits in the second half of the year, of which the single quarter profit in the fourth quarter was 574 million yuan, accounting for 41% of the annual net profit Anhui Hengyuan Coal Industry And Electricity Power Co.Ltd(600971) plans to use 43% of the annual profit for dividend, and plans to pay 5 yuan for every 10 shares, with a total cash dividend of 600 million yuan.
Anhui Hengyuan Coal Industry And Electricity Power Co.Ltd(600971) is located in the hinterland of East China, with 5 pairs of production mines under its jurisdiction, with an approved total capacity of 10.95 million tons / year. In 2021, the company’s raw coal output was 101044 million tons, with a year-on-year increase of 3.02%; The production and sales of commercial coal were 7.9025 million tons and 7.3935 million tons respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 10.27% and 0.93%. According to the calculation of sales data, Anhui Hengyuan Coal Industry And Electricity Power Co.Ltd(600971) the annual average price of coal exceeded 830 yuan / ton, and the gross profit margin of coal sector was 42.81%, an increase of 3.89 percentage points over the same period of last year.
In the first quarter of this year, Anhui Hengyuan Coal Industry And Electricity Power Co.Ltd(600971) still maintained rapid growth, and it is expected to realize a net profit of about 382 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of more than 50%.
As the main listing platform of Wanbei Coal and power group, Anhui Hengyuan Coal Industry And Electricity Power Co.Ltd(600971) has the possibility of asset injection of future controlling shareholders. At present, the commitment of Wanbei Coal and power group to solve the problem of horizontal competition is still valid, and its subordinate exploration rights such as Qidong deep and Wolong Lake West, as well as relevant coal subsidiaries outside the province, have injected expectations. In 2021, Anhui Hengyuan Coal Industry And Electricity Power Co.Ltd(600971) paid 307 million yuan to acquire 100% equity of Hengtai new materials under the controlling shareholder, and cut into the new material industry dominated by gypsum mining and development, which is expected to form complementary industrial advantages with the existing coal sector.
In the annual report, Anhui Hengyuan Coal Industry And Electricity Power Co.Ltd(600971) set the main work objectives for the whole year of 2022, planned to produce 10.35 million tons of raw coal and sell 7.402 million tons of commercial coal, and the production and sales remained stable and increased; In terms of revenue and cost prediction, it is relatively conservative. The total operating revenue is expected to be 6.221 billion yuan, down nearly 8% from 2021; The total operating cost was 5.281 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.4%.
coal enterprises generally increased their performance
In the context of high coal prices, high growth similar to Anhui Hengyuan Coal Industry And Electricity Power Co.Ltd(600971) has become the norm in the industry.
The operating performance of China Shenhua Energy Company Limited(601088) , China Coal Energy Company Limited(601898) and China Coal Energy Company Limited(601898) of China’s two coal giants reached a record high. Among them, the revenue of China Shenhua Energy Company Limited(601088) 2021 reached 335216 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 43.7%; The net profit was 50.269 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 28.3% China Coal Energy Company Limited(601898) last year, the revenue and net profit were 231127 billion yuan and 13.282 billion yuan respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 64% and 125% respectively; It is estimated that the net profit in the first quarter of 2022 will be 6.45 billion yuan – 7.13 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 83.8% – 103.2%.
Yankuang energy and Shaanxi Coal Industry Company Limited(601225) increased significantly, with net profits of 16.259 billion yuan and 20.936 billion yuan respectively in 2021, with a year-on-year increase of 128.3% and 40.83%. In the first quarter of this year, Yankuang energy is expected to achieve a net profit of 6.6 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of nearly 2 times.
Among many coal mining and sales enterprises, Shanxi Lanhua Sci-Tech Venture Co.Ltd(600123) , Shanxi Coal International Energy Group Co.Ltd(600546) and Shanxi Coal International Energy Group Co.Ltd(600546) have achieved an eye-catching growth of about 5 times. Specifically, Shanxi Lanhua Sci-Tech Venture Co.Ltd(600123) 2021 recorded an operating revenue of 12.9 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 95%; The net profit was 2.34 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 525% Shanxi Coal International Energy Group Co.Ltd(600546) 2021 revenue and net profit were 48.137 billion yuan and 4.948 billion yuan respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 35.9% and 498.67% respectively. In the first quarter of this year, Shanxi Lanhua Sci-Tech Venture Co.Ltd(600123) expects the net profit range to be 850950 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 274.73% – 318.82%. In addition, the net profit of listed coal enterprises such as Yizhong energy, Shanxi Blue Flame Holding Company Limited(000968) , Pingdingshan Tianan Coal Mining Co.Ltd(601666) , China Coal Xinji Energy Co.Ltd(601918) , Shanxi Lu’An Environmental Energydev.Co.Ltd(601699) , etc. in 2021 increased by 1-3 times.
High performance growth is gradually transmitted to the secondary market. Since this year, the coal index has continued to rise, with a cumulative increase of nearly 38%, of which Pingdingshan Tianan Coal Mining Co.Ltd(601666) share price has doubled Shanxi Coal International Energy Group Co.Ltd(600546) , Yankuang energy, Jinneng Holding Shanxi Coal Industry Co.Ltd(601001) , Shanxi Lanhua Sci-Tech Venture Co.Ltd(600123) , Shanxi Coking Coal Energy Group Co.Ltd(000983) , China Coal Energy Company Limited(601898) all increased by more than 60%. Over the past three days, the coal sector has performed strongly, China Coal Energy Company Limited(601898) , Pingdingshan Tianan Coal Mining Co.Ltd(601666) harvest 2 rose, and other individual stocks were popular.
what is the future trend of coal price
It is generally expected in the industry that with the steady growth expectation superimposed on the support of the sharp rise in overseas coal prices, the coal price will still have a certain toughness in 2022. Under the recently intensive supply guarantee policies and measures, the advanced production capacity of the industry will be released one after another, the role of Changxie coal as a “ballast” is becoming increasingly prominent, and the wave in the coal market will tend to converge.
Since the beginning of this year, the coal price has been rising first and then declining. The coal price in the Bohai Sea port market has been rising from the beginning of the year to early March. After a high shock in late March, it has begun to fall. Among them, the spot closing price of q5500 thermal coal produced in Shanxi of Qinhuangdao port was 1295 yuan / ton on April 6, down nearly 20% compared with March 24. In terms of Changxie coal, the average price in the first quarter was about 720 yuan / ton, with a year-on-year increase of more than 20%, but it has decreased month on month in March.
According to China Coal Energy Company Limited(601898) news, the monthly price of 5500 kcal of water coal under the medium and long-term contract of the company from January to March this year was 725 yuan / ton, 725 yuan / ton and 720 yuan / ton respectively, with a month on month decrease of 5 yuan / ton in March.
In February this year, the national development and Reform Commission issued a notice on improving the coal price formation mechanism and the supervision of medium and long-term contracts, which defined the reasonable range of coal long-term association price at the pithead of Shanxi, Shaanxi and Mongolia for the first time. The reasonable range of coal price with calorific value of 5500kcal in Shanxi is 370570 yuan / ton, 320520 yuan / ton in Shaanxi and 260460 yuan / ton in Western Mongolia. The notice will be implemented from May 1; The benchmark price of the long-term association has been lowered from 700 yuan / ton to 675 yuan / ton, and the reasonable range is 570 yuan / ton – 770 yuan / ton; At the same time, the coal production plan was issued, requiring the release of another 300 million tons of production capacity within the year, with a daily output of more than 12.6 million tons. According to the National Bureau of statistics, the average daily output of raw coal in China from January to February this year was about 11.695 million tons.
China Coal Energy Company Limited(601898) said that driven by the steady growth policy, China’s coal demand is expected to remain resilient in 2022 and will maintain steady growth on the whole; With the continuation of the policy of ensuring supply and price stability and the orderly release of nuclear production capacity in recent years, the elasticity of coal supply is expected to further increase. It is the general trend for coal prices to fall from a high level to a relatively reasonable level. It is preliminarily predicted that the coal market fluctuation will tend to converge in 2022. It is expected that the coal price of Changxie will still play the basic “anchoring” role of the market price level, and the fluctuation range is about 570770 yuan / ton; The coal market will still show great fluctuation elasticity throughout the year.
China Shenhua Energy Company Limited(601088) also said that due to seasonal fluctuations, emergencies and other factors, the supply of coal may be tight in some areas and in some periods of time; With the stricter supervision of medium and long-term coal contracts, the coverage proportion of Changxie coal will further increase. It is expected that the coal market will stabilize in 2022, the price center will move down and fluctuate in a narrow range within a reasonable range.
