Yesterday, brother Z's old face was slapped, but I didn't panic at all, because I believed that good things would follow.
Sure enough, the NSC issued a "red envelope" last night - "timely use of monetary tools such as RRR reduction". It seems that the benefits of RRR reduction are already on the way!
Today, the market is also very impressive, and all kinds of indexes have risen sharply. COVID-19 detection, Baijiu, chip semiconductor, coal, real estate, phosphorus chemical industry and other sectors are strengthening.
However, the situation is very good, but there are still sudden black swans to disturb the situation.
Today, the vaccine leader Chongqing Zhifei Biological Products Co.Ltd(300122) with a market value of 200 billion suddenly collapsed, with a maximum decline of 18% and a market value loss of nearly 40 billion. What happened?
On the news front, according to authoritative media reports, the World Health Organization (who) released a message on its official website, reviewed the evidence of one dose of human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccine, and came to the conclusion that a single dose of HPV vaccine can provide reliable protection, which is equivalent to the effect of two or three doses of vaccination scheme.
This news means that the effect of one injection of HPV vaccine is the same as that of two or three injections. For those who have already received two or three injections, they will receive them. But for those who haven't been vaccinated with the second and third injections, can they not be vaccinated again? If so, it means that there may be great uncertainty about the business volume of relevant companies in the future.
It is precisely because of such concerns that Chongqing Zhifei Biological Products Co.Ltd(300122) was killed. Not only it, but also the Beijing Wantai Biological Pharmacy Enterprise Co.Ltd(603392) , which had a strong trend before, also fell by the limit for a time.
There may be follow-up to this matter Chongqing Zhifei Biological Products Co.Ltd(300122) official response to investors said that the company had noticed the news and had a great impact. Please continue to pay attention to the announcement or news of the company.
In addition, Beijing Wantai Biological Pharmacy Enterprise Co.Ltd(603392) said that up to now, the company has only obtained the vaccine registration license in China, but has not obtained the vaccine registration license in overseas countries. The bivalent HPV vaccine currently approved by the company in China is 3 doses (2 doses for women aged 9-14). Under the current national drug administration policy, a series of clinical, data support and registration change procedures need to be performed for the change of vaccination grade, which takes a certain time, and has no significant impact on the company's operating performance in the short term.
Well, next, my friends may ask, Chongqing Zhifei Biological Products Co.Ltd(300122) plummeted, Beijing Wantai Biological Pharmacy Enterprise Co.Ltd(603392) plummeted. They are all vaccine leaders. But what does it have to do with me if I don't buy them?
Indeed, if you don't buy a single stock, it may have little to do with you. However, if it is a fund with heavy positions, it is different. It is likely that the fund you hold bought Chongqing Zhifei Biological Products Co.Ltd(300122) . Because the sixth largest shareholder of Chongqing Zhifei Biological Products Co.Ltd(300122) is the China EU medical and health hybrid managed by Glenn, holding 15.38 million shares, and increased its position in the fourth quarter of last year.
Over the past year, the luck of China EU medical and health care is really not good. Many of its heavy positions have encountered the "heavy hammer" of the sudden black swan. For example, Wuxi Apptec Co.Ltd(603259) , Aier Eye Hospital Group Co.Ltd(300015) , Topchoice Medical Co.Inc(600763) , Shenzhen Mindray Bio-Medical Electronics Co.Ltd(300760) , etc.
The most typical is its largest heavy position stock Wuxi Apptec Co.Ltd(603259) . In February this year, it was reported that the two subsidiaries were listed on the "unverified list" (UVL) by the U.S. Department of Commerce. The news at that time led to the limit of Wuxi Apptec Co.Ltd(603259) share price. After the limit fell, Wuxi Apptec Co.Ltd(603259) fell by 13% and then rebounded to the bottom.
Although Wuxi Apptec Co.Ltd(603259) has gradually recovered the lost ground caused by the sharp fall in short interest at that time, from the perspective of trend, it is only a rebound. It is too difficult to completely strengthen. There are Aier Eye Hospital Group Co.Ltd(300015) , Topchoice Medical Co.Inc(600763) etc. almost all of them have failed to recover after encountering bad positions, so it is difficult to regain their momentum.
Well, what brother Z wants to say next is the key point.
Whether it is Chongqing Zhifei Biological Products Co.Ltd(300122) , Wuxi Apptec Co.Ltd(603259) , or the pharmaceutical hot stocks that have been greatly hyped mentioned above, they are high valuation tracks after rising for two or three years.
Companies with such high valuation tracks are most afraid of the sudden black swan that may cause a decline in performance. Although their share prices have fallen a lot, their valuations have fallen today. However, as long as there is a risk of uncertainty in their performance growth expectations, they will still be high valuation companies in the future. So, don't look at Chongqing Zhifei Biological Products Co.Ltd(300122) now the P / E ratio may be only 20 times. If the performance falls by 50% this year, the valuation will be high immediately.
Therefore, after the sudden bad fall of individual stocks, brother Z felt that he was not in a hurry to copy the bottom. At this time, copying the bottom was tantamount to "licking blood at the edge of the knife". If we hold such stocks, it depends on how the company responds to bad news and the trend the next day. If the company strongly responds to bad news, there may be a rebound in the short term in the future, so you can look for opportunities to reduce your position in the rebound. However, if the company can not give a strong response and the stock price continues to weaken, there is really no need to linger. We are all small shareholders. It's better to "free" early.
On the other hand, which stocks are most afraid of bad in the current market? Personally, people like real estate stocks should be regarded as - the industry environment has been too bad, but they are not afraid of bad.
Well, that's about what brother Z talked about today. For the market, there is really not much to worry about. However, the market of washing dishes may appear in the future. There is no bottom. Success is achieved overnight, and the process will be more painful.
\u3000\u3000 (risk warning: equity funds are high-risk varieties and should be invested with caution. This material is not regarded as any legal document. All information or opinions expressed in the material do not constitute the final operation suggestions for investment, law, accounting or taxation. I will not guarantee the final operation suggestions for the contents in the material. Under no circumstances will I be liable for any loss caused by anyone's use of any content in this material No responsibility. China's fund operation time is relatively short, which can not reflect all stages of the development of the stock market. The past performance of fixed investment does not represent the future performance. Investors should fully understand the differences between regular fixed investment of the fund and savings methods such as zero deposit and lump sum withdrawal. Fixed investment is a simple and easy way to guide investors to make long-term investment and average investment cost. However, regular and fixed investment can not avoid the inherent risks of fund investment, can not guarantee the income of investors, and is not an equivalent financial management method instead of savings.
Before investing in the fund, investors should carefully read the fund contract, prospectus and other fund legal documents of the fund, fully understand the risk return characteristics and product characteristics of the fund, fully consider their own risk tolerance, rationally judge the market on the basis of understanding the products or services and listening to the appropriate opinions, and according to their own investment objectives, term, investment experience Make investment decisions carefully and bear investment risks independently due to factors such as asset status. There are risks in the market, so we should be cautious when entering the market. The fund manager reminds investors of the principle of "buyer's own responsibility" for fund investment. After investors make investment decisions, the investors shall be responsible for the investment risks caused by the operation of the fund, the fluctuation of the listed trading price of fund units and the change of the net value of the fund.)
