Recently, the price of lithium carbonate has fallen continuously, and now it has lost 500000 yuan / ton.
On April 13, according to the data released by Shanghai Ganglian E-Commerce Holdings Co.Ltd(300226) , the quotation of some lithium battery materials fell again. Among them, the average price of battery grade lithium carbonate fell by 1000 yuan / ton to 495000 yuan / ton.
In the face of the falling price of lithium carbonate, during the interview with the reporter of science and Innovation Board daily, many people in the industry have different views on “whether the inflection point has come”. Meanwhile, the recent fall in lithium carbonate prices may alleviate the cost pressure of all links of the industrial chain.
▍ lithium carbonate price has reached the inflection point
At present, lithium carbonate, as an important raw material for power batteries of new energy vehicles, is mainly used to produce lithium iron phosphate and low and medium nickel cathode materials in ternary materials.
According to the monitoring data of business agency, lithium carbonate products rose sharply in 2021, and the prices of the whole year were in the upward range. In the first quarter of this year, the price of industrial grade and battery grade lithium carbonate was still in a significantly higher range, with a price increase of about 80% in three months. Among them, in March this year, the rising trend of lithium carbonate price began to slow down.
Shanghai Ganglian E-Commerce Holdings Co.Ltd(300226) new energy business department lithium analyst Qu Yinfei analyzed to the reporter of science and Innovation Board daily, “Recently, the price of lithium carbonate has indeed reached the inflection point. The upstream and downstream cannot reach a unified expectation of the price, resulting in the weakening of spot transactions in the recent market. At present, the two sides are still in a state of confrontation. The downstream spot purchase intention is very low, and the market transaction high is difficult to maintain. The whole is in a downward state.”
At the same time, many people in the industry told the reporter of science and Innovation Board daily, “it’s hard to say whether it’s at an inflection point now.”
Among them, true lithium research founder and President Moke said to the reporter of science and Innovation Board daily, “there is no way to judge whether it has reached the inflection point, and the temporary price decline may not turn into a trend.”
Merco further explained: “lithium resources are generally priced in US dollars, and the high inflation in the United States leads to the depreciation of the US dollar; at the same time, the outbreak of demand and hoarding in all links have indeed exacerbated the shortage of supply to a certain extent.”
“it’s hard to say whether the price of lithium carbonate is at an inflection point at present.” Some people in the industry analyzed and said to the reporter of the science and Innovation Board daily, “now the supply has not been greatly released, but the demand is still relatively strong. From this point of view, the high price may continue.”
▍ lithium carbonate price follow-up trend
From the logic of lithium carbonate price change, “cost, supply and demand, and emotion will guide lithium price changes. Among them, supply and demand and cost are dominant, supplemented by emotion. However, it does not rule out that under special circumstances, emotion will stimulate the market greatly, thus guiding the market.” Qu Yinfei, lithium analyst of Shanghai Ganglian E-Commerce Holdings Co.Ltd(300226) new energy business department, analyzed the reporter of science and Innovation Board daily
For the follow-up trend of lithium carbonate price, in the opinion of Qu Yinfei, lithium analyst of Shanghai Ganglian E-Commerce Holdings Co.Ltd(300226) new energy business department, “In the later stage, it is expected that the market will remain weak. The cost side spodumene price is still supported. With the increase of Salt Lake production and the production of new projects, the supply is expected to gradually increase in the second quarter. On the contrary, the downstream cathode enterprises are more exclusive to the current price procurement, and with the weakening of enterprise production scheduling, the purchase intention continues to decrease. Both supply and demand and sentiment reflect that the market will be weak in the second quarter.”
At the same time, true lithium research founder and President Moke analyzed that “the price of lithium carbonate is likely to fluctuate at a high rate this year, because at present, the demand side will still be relatively strong.”
Huaan Securities Co.Ltd(600909) research shows that with the gradual release of lithium carbonate production, the relationship between market supply and demand has been alleviated. Downstream enterprises generally accept high priced lithium carbonate, and the market game will continue. Affected by the supply and demand pattern and sentiment, it is expected that the short-term price of lithium carbonate will stop rising and maintain stability.
Affected by the recent decline of lithium carbonate price, the cost pressure of all links of the industrial chain may be alleviated to some extent.
“the falling price of lithium carbonate is a good thing for downstream applications such as electric vehicles, because the price of batteries may not continue to rise.” Mo Ke, founder and President of true lithium research, said
Qu Yinfei, a lithium analyst at Shanghai Ganglian E-Commerce Holdings Co.Ltd(300226) new energy business department, told the reporter of science and Innovation Board Daily: “the most intuitive impact of the decline in the price of raw material end products is that the cost of related products in all links of the industrial chain will decrease.”
