the silicon branch of China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association released data on the 13th that the price range of China’s single crystal re feeding this week was 2490 Changzhou Qianhong Biopharma Co.Ltd(002550) 00 yuan / ton, and the average transaction price rose to 251500 yuan / ton, with a weekly increase of 0.32%; The price range of single crystal compact is 2470 Jc Finance & Tax Interconnect Holdings Ltd(002530) 00 yuan / ton, and the average transaction price rose to 249100 yuan / ton, with a weekly increase of 0.28%
This is also the 13th consecutive week of rising silicon prices. Experts said that behind the high price of silicon material is the rush buying factor of enterprises. It is expected that the shortage of silicon materials in this round will not be alleviated until May at the earliest.
According to the data of the silicon industry branch, the price of polysilicon in China continued to rise slightly this week, with the average transaction price of single crystal re feeding, single crystal compact and single crystal cauliflower rising by about 0.3%. The turnover of silicon material this week is relatively light, mainly because most enterprises have signed all orders in April at the beginning of the month. Recently, they mainly execute early orders, and only a few enterprises have signed a small number of loose orders in April and orders in May.
According to the analysis of relevant persons of the silicon industry branch, the reason for the continued rise in the price of silicon materials is that the release progress of China’s polysilicon production capacity is less than expected, and the import of overseas silicon materials is blocked due to poor transportation, so there is little increase in China’s polysilicon supply.
“Secondly, although some silicon wafer enterprises in the downstream have been affected by the shortage of silicon materials caused by the epidemic and logistics, the operating rate has decreased, but at the same time, new production capacity has been released to make up the gap, so the demand for silicon materials remains high. In addition, the silicon wafer price reaching a high point again also has a great support for silicon wafer enterprises to maintain a high operating rate, which ensures the demand for silicon materials to a certain extent.” The person said that the above reasons together led to the relative shortage of silicon material supply in the near future, and the price continued to rise slightly.
As of this week, there were 13 polysilicon enterprises in China. In April, there are 1-2 Chinese enterprises whose polysilicon production will be affected, with a decrease of about 2% – 5% month on month. However, in the same period, there are 2 silicon material enterprises whose production expansion increment is released. Therefore, China’s silicon material production in April is expected to be 54 Jiangling Motors Corporation Ltd(000550) 00 tons. In the same period, the import volume is expected to be flat or slightly reduced month on month (about 6 Jiangnan Mould & Plastic Technology Co.Ltd(000700) 0 tons) due to the impact of epidemic situation, maintenance and international factors. Therefore, the total supply of silicon materials in China in April is expected to be 6 Shenzhen Huaqiang Industry Co.Ltd(000062) 000 tons. In terms of demand, taking into account the impact of the epidemic on production reduction and incremental release of new capacity, the silicon wafer production is expected to be about 24 GW.
“Therefore, the supply of silicon material in April is still in a state of relative shortage, and the price trend of silicon material will continue at least until the order in May is signed at the end of April.” The above-mentioned people expect that in May, China’s small-scale silicon material enterprises will resume normal operation, and the capacity increment of another two to three enterprises will continue to be released. The import volume is relatively stable. China’s total supply is expected to increase by 5% – 8% month on month, reaching about 65000 tons. In the same period, the output of silicon wafer enterprises will recover to 24.5-25 GW due to the continuous release of increment and the mitigation of the epidemic.
He believes that from the perspective of supply and demand, the supply shortage of silicon materials in China eased slightly in May, but the overall supply is still less than the demand. Therefore, it is expected that there will be no downward logic for the price of silicon materials until the relationship between supply and demand is reversed.
“In fact, from January 26 to today, polysilicon prices have increased slightly. The average price has increased by 1.05 yuan / kg, from 240000 to 250000 / ton, an increase of only 4.4%, but it is still at a high level.” LV Jinbiao, deputy director of the expert committee of the silicon industry branch, told reporters that from the perspective of the total supply and demand, the silicon material is now more than balanced. In the last month, including 7000 tons of imported silicon, the overall supply of silicon materials exceeded 60000 tons, and more than 23 gigawatts of silicon wafers can be supplied. Deducting the turnover inventory of each link, it is fully sufficient for the global terminal demand.
In his opinion, the reason why the silicon material price remains high is not the supply problem, but the rush purchase. All enterprises are scrambling to implement the long order delivery, hoping to improve their operating rate and shipment volume first, so as to take the lead in the future market competition.
\u3000\u3000 “When can the price of silicon materials stop rising or even falling? Please refer to the situation in December last year. At that time, the price of silicon materials was as high as 270000 yuan / ton, but the installation market at the end of the year was less than expected, the inventory of components increased, and the silicon wafer end could only be cleared. Small factories began to stop production, large factories reduced production, and the price of silicon materials stopped rising. Then all small factories stopped purchasing silicon materials from the retail end, and the price began to decline, which also fell to less than 240000 yuan / ton in almost four weeks. However, with In the first quarter, the market was not weak in the off-season. After the inventory was cleared at the end of the year, all parties began to prepare materials before the lunar new year, and prices began to rise again in the last week of January. ” LV Jinbiao said.
