After the impact of covid-19 epidemic in 2020, the global economy recovered in a "K" shape, resulting in the irregular prosperity of the global supply chain; In 2022, the geopolitical turmoil represented by the conflict between Russia and Ukraine disrupted the global supply side again, and the supply of resource factor markets such as energy and Shenzhen Agricultural Products Group Co.Ltd(000061) was typically impacted; At the same time, China's Omicron outbreak exceeded expectations, restricting China's strong exports and China's supply side in the past two years. Globally, many factors, such as differences in epidemic prevention and control among countries, the rise of trade protectionism and the intensification of the polarization between the rich and the poor, have obviously had an impact on the global trade division in the past few decades and promoted the "anti globalization". Since the establishment of China's international "double cycle" strategy, China still faces many "blocking points" in links such as "production consumption circulation". The construction of a national unified market may be of far-reaching significance.
I. from the perspective of China's great cycle: the construction of a unified national market, focusing on the safety and efficiency of the supply chain
1. After China's entry into WTO, China's supply chain has formed a trade model of "two ends outside". On the one hand, the upstream key technologies and raw materials are heavily dependent on Japan, the United States, Germany and other countries; On the other hand, in the export structure, the proportion of products that really have international competitiveness is very low. Against the trend of globalization, this trade model has potential supply chain risks. China urgently needs to build an independent, controllable, safe and reliable industrial chain to "fill the short board" and "lengthen the long board".
2. The opinions on accelerating the construction of a national unified market (hereinafter referred to as the opinions) was issued on April 10 to solve the current problem of poor circulation in the supply chain. The "opinions" proposes "five legislations and one breakthrough" to solve the current prominent contradictions and problems: "five legislations": first, strengthen the unification of market basic systems and rules, second, promote the high standard connection of market facilities, third, create a unified factor and resource market, fourth, promote the high-level unification of commodity and service market, and fifth, promote the fair unification of market supervision. "One break" is to further regulate improper market competition and market intervention. At present, the seesaw war between Russia and Ukraine continues, the epidemic situation in some parts of China remains high, and many negative factors continue to suppress economic fundamentals. Only by opening up China's circulation and strengthening the independent control of China's economy can we master the right to speak.
In the medium and long term, the opinions will lay a more solid foundation for the safety and efficiency of China's future supply chain. Under the guidance of supply chain security, the core of the opinions focuses on the fields of strategic emerging industries, energy upgrading and market-oriented reform of traditional factors, specifically including energy, traditional infrastructure, big data, logistics, energy storage, green development and land factor reform. It is a medium and long-term plan from top-level design to refinement of all dimensions, based on domestic demand and smooth circulation.
3. How to understand "strengthening the unification of market-based systems and rules" from the perspective of central local relations?
In the past, the central government granted local financial power and legislative power. Local governments can develop their economy through subsidies and government investment, and cultivate local advantages by relying on a certain degree of "industrial protection and support". However, when the economy develops to a certain stage, this kind of local government intervention has the problem of low efficiency, such as cheating compensation, special preference and so on. Therefore, adjusting local financial rights and weakening the ability of local governments to intervene in the market have become the direction of policy transformation since 2021.
This document proposes to "strengthen the unification of market-based systems and rules". In fact, it is aimed at the phenomenon of local "trade protection". The central government will further tighten the administrative and legislative power of local governments to intervene in the economy. Then, after the national unified bidding standards in the future, the market share obtained only by local protectionism in the past will be difficult to sustain, and the industry competition will tend to be market-oriented, which is conducive to the emergence of truly valuable enterprises.
II. Perspective of Industrial Development: supply chain autonomy and core technology breakthrough
From the perspective of industrial chain, under the trend of self-control, core technologies continue to make breakthroughs. Since the "ZTE incident" and Huawei's ban, Chinese semiconductor manufacturers have accelerated the transfer from traditional assembly / OEM to core semiconductor components. The domestic substitution of semiconductor industry chain has gradually entered the core links of upstream equipment and materials. Huawei is also seeking self-control in many fields, from building the underlying Kunpeng chip computing industry ecosystem to releasing Hongmeng operating system and other products, and continuously building an ecosystem.
III. investment suggestions: grasp the direction of accelerating domestic substitution
In the context of reshaping the global supply pattern, China's acceleration of the construction of a national unified market will contribute to the improvement of China's supply chain security and efficiency. In terms of improving the efficiency of the supply chain, there is a large gap between China's key technologies and international competitive products. Among them, accelerating the cultivation of a unified technology and data market and other measures are expected to make the scientific and technological R & D elements and resources efficiently support China's core technology research, and open up huge space for technological progress and penetration improvement in the future.
From the perspective of supply chain security, the implementation of Western sanctions triggered by the turmoil in Russia and Ukraine may disturb the global supply chain in the long term. Except for the United States and foreign countries, the domestic substitution of other key parts from the whole western alliance may accelerate in the future. It is suggested to pay attention to:
1) medium and long-term investment opportunities for domestic substitution in subdivided fields such as semiconductor materials and software ecology related to Huawei chips.
2) at the same time, with the western modernization arms race in the process of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, the military industry has benefited from the three-year pilot closing year of state-owned enterprise reform and the market-oriented reform of pricing mechanism, which also deserves special attention.
3) accelerate the development of a unified capital market. From the perspective of financing, develop supply chain finance, provide financial products directly to the business entities in all circulation links, and benefit the relevant large financial sectors.
4) after the central government further adjusts the local administrative and legislative power and unifies the national bidding standards, the industry competition tends to be market-oriented, which is conducive to the emergence of truly valuable enterprises. Then the leaders of undervalued central enterprises with national policy support will take the lead in benefiting.
Risk tips: the intensification of geographical conflicts exceeded expectations, and the epidemic prevention and control was less than expected
