Strategic view
On Wednesday, the Shanghai stock index rebounded from the bottom in the morning, once turned red in the afternoon and touched the 20 day moving average, then fell all the way back to the low. The gem index closed at the lowest point of the day, Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) , Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) call auction was smashed. As of the close, the Shanghai stock index fell 0.82%, the Shenzhen Component Index fell 1.60%, the gem index fell 2.25%, the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 fell 0.96%, the Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 fell 0.41%, and the China Stock Exchange 500 fell 1.35%. The net outflow of northbound funds was 498 million yuan, with an average net outflow of 2.186 billion yuan last week and a net inflow of 9.137 billion yuan the previous trading day. The turnover of the two cities was 873.5 billion yuan, with an average value of 938679 billion yuan last week and 916479 billion yuan the previous trading day. Generally speaking, the bottom grinding stage of A-Shares is a relatively grinding stage, but what will lose is only time. Investors should keep their concentration. The executive meeting of the State Council held on April 13 deployed policies and measures to promote consumption, help stabilize the economic fundamentals and ensure the improvement of people's livelihood; At the same time, the meeting decided to encourage large banks with high provision level to reduce the provision rate in an orderly manner in view of the changes in the current situation, timely use monetary policy tools such as RRR reduction, further strengthen financial support for the real economy, especially industries seriously affected by the epidemic, small, medium-sized and micro enterprises, individual workers and merchants, make reasonable profits to the real economy and reduce comprehensive financing costs. With the help of the expected RRR reduction, we believe that the market probability can complete this round of decline on Wednesday, thus forming an important bottom in the next stage, but it does not mean that A-Shares can continue to improve. At present, we still need to wait for a clearer signal of fundamental repair.
Stock index futures trading strategy
Viewpoint: futures turn to premium, which should not be pessimistic in the short term
(1) on April 13, the positions of if, IH and IC contracts were 209000, 96500 and 340100 respectively, with changes of - 2.98%, - 1.37% and - 0.41% on a daily basis;
(2) on April 13, the difference between the contract and spot price of if, IH and IC in the current month was 8.06 points, 6.92 points and 0.67 points, which was 12.04 points, 6.78 points and -2.82 points higher than that of the previous trading day.
Operation suggestion: if2204 is mainly low absorption, and the support level is 4120 points
Option trading strategy
Viewpoint: the implied volatility rebounds, and the short-term index still repeats
(1) on April 13, the PCR (positions) of 50ETF option, Huatai 300etf option, harvest 300etf option and 300 stock index option were 0.79, 0.88, 0.97 and 0.75 respectively, of which the PCR values of 50ETF and 300etf options rebounded slightly;
(2) on April 13, the implied volatility of 300etf option and 50ETF option were 21.1% and 20.7% respectively, and the implied volatility of 300etf option and 50ETF option rebounded slightly.
Operation suggestion: radical strategy: sell 300etf and 4000 options in April; Robust strategy: none; Hedging strategy: None
Risk tips
1. Rapid cooling of market transactions; 2 short term panic continued to spread risk factors.
