Industrial high frequency periodicity observation. 1) Inflation. Last week (04.06-04.08, the same below), the price of pork fell to 18.22 yuan / kg, the specific price of pig grain rose to 4.44, the price of chicken rose, the price of beef and mutton fell, the price of vegetables fell and the price of fruit rose. 2) Industry. Last week, the blast furnace operating rate rose, the operating rates of coking enterprises with various production capacity rose and fell, the rebar price rose and the inventory rebounded; Copper prices rose and inventories accumulated. 3) Consumption. The year-on-year growth rate of Automobile wholesale and retail has rebounded significantly, and the film box office revenue and film viewers have rebounded month on month. 4) Real estate. The transaction area of commercial housing in 30 cities decreased on a weekly basis, and the transaction area of land in 100 cities decreased on a weekly basis.
Weekly observation of financial markets. 1) Stock market. Last week, the Shanghai Composite Index closed at 325185 points, down 0.94% week on week; The gem index closed at 256991, down 3.64% mom. From the perspective of industry sectors, building decoration, steel and building materials led the rise, while agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery, electrical equipment and electronics led the decline. 2) Bond market. The yield of interest rate bonds rose, the term interest rate spread widened, and the interest rate spread between China and the United States narrowed. On April 8, the yields of 1y treasury bonds, 10Y treasury bonds, 1y CDB bonds and 10Y CDB bonds closed at 2.07%, 2.75%, 2.22% and 2.99% respectively, and the week on week ratio changed by - 3bp, - 2bp, - 3bp and - 3bp respectively; The term spreads of 10y-1y treasury bonds and CDB bonds were 69bp and 78bp respectively, and the week on week ratio changed by 2bp and 1bp respectively; China US interest rate spread closed at 3bp, narrowing 35bp. 3) Commodities. Last week, commodity prices rose and fell, rebar, thermal coal, PTA and soybean meal futures prices fell, coke, cathode copper, soybean oil and white granulated sugar futures prices rose, cement price index fell, Nanhua metal index fell, and ine crude oil futures price callback to close at 617.5 yuan / barrel.
Weekly observation of macro policies. 1) Monetary policy. Last week, the broad reverse repo was put into the open market for a total of RMB 30 billion, with a total net return of RMB 58 billion. Dr001 and dr007 closed at 1.74% and 1.94% respectively. In March, the yield of Shibor and 1y interbank certificates of deposit closed at 2.36% and 2.48% respectively. 2) Policy developments. On April 6, Premier Li Keqiang chaired the executive meeting of the State Council.
Core view. 1) Pig prices continued to fall, and the price ratio of pig to grain rebounded. From the perspective of inflation, the de production of pigs is still in the process, and the supply is still in the stage of surplus. Last week, the price of pork rose, and the price ratio of pig to grain rebounded. Russian oil production reduction expectations failed, and crude oil prices significantly corrected. From the perspective of supply, the operating rate of blast furnace is up. Except for large capacity coking enterprises, the operating rates of small and medium-sized coking enterprises are up, and the operating rate of small capacity coking enterprises continues to turn against super medium capacity coking enterprises. In terms of demand, the wholesale and retail sales of cars have rebounded significantly year-on-year, or the film box office revenue and person times have rebounded due to the impact of the Qingming holiday; The transaction area of commercial housing in 30 cities fell month on month, the transaction area of land in 100 cities fell month on month, and the marginal policy of multi land real estate demand side was relaxed. 2) The national standing committee will further stabilize growth and release the signal of maintaining stability. On April 6, Premier Li Keqiang chaired an executive meeting of the State Council. The meeting pointed out that at present, China's economic operation is generally maintained within a reasonable range, but the complexity and uncertainty of China's external environment are increasing, and some exceed expectations. At present, the epidemic situation in China is sporadic in many places, and the cumulative number of confirmed cases is still rising. The epidemic in Shanghai has not yet ushered in an inflection point, and production, consumption and exports have been impacted. In March, the manufacturing PMI also fell back below the boom and bust line. The conflict between Russia and Ukraine and the Fed's interest rate hike have increased external uncertainty. Under the joint action of internal and external factors, the pressure on China's steady growth is increasing. The NPC pointed out that we should put steady growth in a more prominent position, coordinate steady growth, adjust structure and promote reform, and effectively stabilize the macro-economic market. On the one hand, in view of the outstanding difficulties faced by market players, we should strengthen the rescue and employment security, such as the phased deferred payment of old-age insurance premiums for extremely poor industries and the phased expansion of unemployment insurance security; On the other hand, we should make timely and flexible use of various monetary policy tools such as refinancing, increase small refinancing of agricultural expenditure, study measures to support consumption and effective investment, and set up two special refinancing for scientific and technological innovation and inclusive pension, so as to give better play to the dual functions of aggregate and structure and increase support for the real economy.
Risk tip: there is a risk of epidemic spread in China, and the overseas situation has changed more than expected.
