The year-on-year growth rate of exports in March 2022 was 14.7%, which was marginally lower than the average value of 16.3% from January to February. We have made the export amount a 12-month moving average, and the downward inflection point of export growth has been confirmed. The year-on-year trend of exports fell in March, which is in line with our previous view in the export outlook of 2022. On the one hand, the production and repair of supply chains in major European and American countries has reduced the export volume of electromechanical products, computers, parts and components and electronic components that once supported China's export in 2021. Only cars still maintain high export growth, which has become a structural bright spot in China's manufacturing industry and exports. Second, the production of other manufacturing countries is repaired, and China's export substitution effect on these countries is weakened. Third, there is a high export base in 2021, which will depress the export growth in 2022. The downward inflection point of export has been confirmed. Export (external demand) has led China's manufacturing investment for 6 months, which is highly correlated with China's PPI industrial product prices.
In March 2022, the export volume increased by 14.7% year-on-year. In previous years, the export level in March was generally high. Supported by seasonal effects and prices, the amount growth rate exceeded the original market expectation of 12.4%. However, the fact that the export volume fell sharply can not be concealed. It is expected that the export level will weaken significantly in April. In March, the export value index fell by 16.9 points compared with February, the price index increased by 2.2 points, and the quantity index fell sharply by 3.7 points, which also confirms the view that price contributes to export growth in the comment "export exceeds expectation comes from price" released last month. The situation and epidemic situation in Russia and Ukraine have led to global supply shortages and supply chain problems. Inflation remains high, not only in commodities led by crude oil, but also in metals (copper, nickel, etc.) and grain (corn, etc.). The CCFI shipping index is still at a high level. Although there is a marginal slowdown in some regional shipping indexes, there is still no qualitative change.
In March, the import growth turned negative, and the import volume fell sharply, still supported by prices. From bulk commodities (coal and lignite, crude oil, refined oil and natural gas), to grain and soybeans, all have been affected by the epidemic, US inflation and the conflict between Russia and Ukraine. Prices have soared, and the growth rate of some commodity imports has turned negative or only single digit growth.
Risk factors: the global epidemic and inflation exceeded expectations, and the conflict between Ukraine and Russia exceeded expectations
