Matters:
In March 2022, China's exports denominated in US dollars increased by 14.7% year-on-year, imports by - 0.1% year-on-year, and the trade surplus reached US $47.38 billion.
Ping An View:
In March 2022, China's export resilience continued to show, but after the outbreak of the Chinese epidemic, factors such as the tightening of prevention and control policies and the rising international commodity prices began to become a source of pressure for the decline of imports, and the import performance was significantly lower than expected.
In terms of products, compared with the consolidated statistical data from January to February, the pull of mechanical and electrical products on China's exports in March was significantly weakened, and the pull of labor-intensive products and epidemic prevention materials on China's exports was enhanced. In mechanical and electrical products, the export amount of goods related to the post real estate cycle, such as household appliances, audio and video equipment and parts, even showed negative growth, which has significantly dragged down the overall export of mechanical and electrical products. However, the export performance of automobile related products is still bright; Recently, the recovery of production capacity in Southeast Asian countries is limited, and the pull of labor-intensive products on China's exports has increased; The pull of epidemic prevention materials on China's exports increased slightly. However, in addition to the above three categories of products, the pull of other products on China's exports has been significantly weakened.
In terms of countries and regions, the pull of the United States' total exports to China has rebounded significantly, and the pull of the European Union is also at a high level. U.S. total exports to China rebounded to 3.6%, significantly higher than that in January and February this year, which may be due to the release of inventory replenishment demand after the easing of port congestion in the United States. The EU's export to China is also at a high level, mainly due to the obvious improvement of the epidemic, the successive unsealing of many European countries and the recovery of consumer demand. However, under the influence of the epidemic, the entrepot trade through Hong Kong, China continued to decrease, and the pull of Hong Kong, China's exports to the mainland decreased significantly, from 1.0% and - 0.5% in January and February to - 2.5% in March.
In terms of imports, the year-on-year growth rate of imports turned negative in March, and most of the year-on-year pull of major imported commodities on imports weakened, which may be due to the tightening of prevention and control policies after the outbreak of the epidemic in China, affecting logistics, and the high international commodity prices curbing import demand. The impact of the epidemic on imports is mainly reflected in three aspects: first, after the outbreak in many places in China, domestic demand may weaken; Second, after the tightening of prevention and control policies, the customs declaration process of imported goods may be extended and logistics may face resistance; Third, the rise of international commodity prices may also inhibit import demand. If the price factor is deducted, the decline of China's imports may be more obvious. Among the main imported commodities in March, only the import quantity of copper mine and its concentrate sand increased slightly by 0.6%, the import quantity of other main imported commodities increased negatively, and the import quantity of coal, lignite, log, sawn timber, fertilizer and other commodities decreased or even exceeded 30% year-on-year.
Generally speaking, China's exports remained resilient in March 2022, and labor-intensive products and automobile related commodities still supported China's exports. However, factors such as the withdrawal of overseas financial subsidies, the inhibition of real demand by high inflation and the outbreak of China's epidemic may become "hidden worries" for future exports. In terms of imports, the tightening of China's prevention and control policies and the rise of international commodity prices have had a significant impact, and the trend of domestic and foreign demand is divided.
The year-on-year growth rate of exports denominated in US dollars in March 2022 was 14.7%, which was lower than the year-on-year growth rate of 16.3% from January to February, and lower than the two-year average year-on-year growth rate of 19.4% in December 2021; Over the same period, imports showed negative year-on-year growth, with the growth rate falling from 15.5% from January to February to - 0.1% in March; The trade surplus was US $47.38 billion, significantly lower than the average level in the second half of 2021. Overall, China's export resilience continued to show in March, but factors such as tightening prevention and control policies and rising international commodity prices began to become a source of pressure on the decline of imports, and the performance of imports was significantly lower than expected.
In terms of products, compared with the consolidated statistical data from January to February, the pull of mechanical and electrical products on China's exports in March was significantly weakened, and the pull of labor-intensive products and epidemic prevention materials on China's exports was enhanced. Among them, the export of mechanical and electrical products to China further decreased from 7.4% from January to February to 6.7% in March. Among them, the export amount of goods related to the post real estate cycle, such as household appliances, audio and video equipment and parts, even showed negative growth, which has formed a significant drag on the overall export of mechanical and electrical products, or is related to the fact that the peak of the U.S. real estate cycle has passed. However, the export performance of automobile related products is still bright. In March, the export amount of automobiles (including chassis) increased by 54.6% year-on-year; The pull of labor-intensive products on China's exports increased from 1.4% in January February to 1.8% in March, but it is still lower than the level in the fourth quarter of 2021. Over the past two months, the recovery of production capacity in Southeast Asian countries has been relatively limited. From the perspective of manufacturing PMI, compared with February, the manufacturing PMI in Indonesia and the Philippines rebounded slightly in March, but both Thailand and Vietnam fell significantly. Malaysia's manufacturing PMI even fell below the boom and bust line in March, which has supported China's export of labor-intensive products; The export of epidemic prevention materials to China increased slightly, from 0.6% in January February to 0.9% in March; In addition, in addition to the above three categories of products, the pull of other products on China's exports also weakened significantly, from 6.9% from January to February to 5.2% in March.
