Comments on trade data from January to March: in the stable data, geopolitical influence fluctuates

In the first quarter, the growth of foreign trade was stable, and the export toughness was still. In dollar terms, China's total import and export value in the first quarter increased by 13.0% year-on-year, and its foreign trade as a whole was relatively stable. Among them, from January to March, the total export value increased by 15.8% year-on-year. The conflict between Russia and Ukraine put pressure on the global supply chain and imposed economic sanctions on Russia in many places, supporting China's exports; Imports were less affected than expected by the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, and the year-on-year growth rate of total imports was 9.6%. On the whole, due to the disturbance of the epidemic, China's production has been affected to some extent, but the strong overseas demand is still dominant. Coupled with the impact of exchange rate factors, China's exports remain resilient. In March, exports increased by 14.7% year-on-year, while imports decreased by 0.1% year-on-year. China's epidemic has a certain impact on production, but under the background of the government's expansion of high-level opening to the outside world and promoting the steady development of foreign trade and foreign investment, it is expected that overseas demand will still form a certain support for exports; The conflict between Russia and Ukraine and global supply chain problems continue to affect imports, superimposing the base effect. It is expected that imports will continue to be weak.

China's trade with its major trading partners grew steadily. China's one belt, one road, and RCEP countries are better than ASEAN in the first quarter. From January to March, the total value of trade between China and ASEAN increased by 10.7% over the same period last year, of which exports to ASEAN slowed by 1.0 percentage points and imports from ASEAN slowed by 4.0 percentage points. European commodities and supply chains were seriously affected by the conflict between Russia and Ukraine. In the first quarter, China's exports to the EU were 7.5 percentage points higher than the overall export growth rate. Under the influence of multiple factors such as the base and the blow to the European supply chain, China's imports from the EU slowed down by 4.3 percentage points. The export growth rate of China, the United States and Japan was higher than the previous value; Import growth fell. China has one belt, one road area, and other trade partners. China's trade with Latin America and Africa is also at a high level.

Under the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, aluminum exports increased significantly, and electromechanical products grew rapidly. From the perspective of export commodities, the aluminum export growth rate was high in the first quarter affected by the conflict between Russia and Ukraine. Under the impact of the overseas supply chain and the rapid pace of China's resumption of production, the export of labor-intensive and electromechanical products was supported. In US dollars, from January to March, China's export of mechanical and electrical products increased by 12.1% year-on-year, accounting for 58.67% of the total export. Among them, the export growth of general mechanical equipment, integrated circuits and automobiles (including chassis) is relatively high. Driven by China's policy support and strong global demand, the export of emerging industries and high-tech products is also relatively stable. The export of labor-intensive products also showed a good trend. In a single month, the growth base of export amount fell, and the year-on-year growth of exports of most commodities rebounded significantly in March. The Chinese epidemic had an impact on the export of some products, and the subsequent conflict between Russia and Ukraine still supported China's export. However, the epidemic spread in many places in China in March, affecting China's logistics and production. It is expected that the short-term export growth rate may be stable and slightly reduced.

The year-on-year growth rate of imports fell in the current month, and geopolitical factors continued to affect it. Under the influence of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine and the base, the import growth rate fell in the first quarter, and the import of grain and soybean was affected. The import amount of coal and lignite fell by 51.8 percentage points year-on-year, and the conflict between Russia and Ukraine had an impact on the import and export of relevant products around the world. In terms of other imported commodities, the import volume and price of iron ore sand and its concentrate decreased at the same time, the volume and price of copper ore and its concentrate increased at the same time, and the import volume and price of crude oil, natural gas and chemical fertilizer decreased and increased, which were mainly affected by the base number and geopolitical factors. In March, the growth rate of import amount in a single month turned negative, the base of most commodities increased, the growth rate of import quantity fell, and the import amount of some commodities was supported. Under the influence of geopolitical growth, China's import growth is expected to continue to slow down year-on-year, or the amount of import repair will continue to appear in the long-term.

Risk tip: the epidemic control is less than expected, the geographical conflict is more than expected, and the recovery is less than expected.

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