Events
On April 13, 2022, the website of the General Administration of Customs showed that in the first quarter of this year, China's total import and export value was 1478.9 billion US dollars, an increase of 13.0%. Among them, the export was 820.92 billion US dollars, an increase of 15.8%; Imports reached 657.98 billion US dollars, an increase of 9.6%; The trade surplus was 162.94 billion US dollars, an increase of 19.5%.
Comments
In the first quarter, China's export resilience was particularly strong. China's exports in the first quarter totaled US $820.92 billion, a year-on-year increase of 15.8%. On the basis of last year's high base, China's exports still maintained strong resilience. Since the beginning of this year, China has faced many external uncertainties such as the spread of the epidemic, the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, global inflation and the tightening of the monetary policy of the Federal Reserve. The pressure on stabilizing foreign trade has increased. However, China's advantages in epidemic prevention and control and the resilience of the manufacturing industry chain and supply chain still help maintain steady growth of foreign trade. This is mainly due to the fact that the fundamentals of China's strong economic resilience and long-term improvement have not changed, and the steady growth policies and measures are moving forward. From the perspective of export countries, China's exports to the EU, the United States and other developed economies remained good in the first quarter, with cumulative year-on-year growth rates of 23.3% and 16.7% respectively. In emerging markets, the cumulative year-on-year growth rate of China's commodity exports to ASEAN in the first quarter was 12.3%. ASEAN is still China's current largest trading partner. Although the global economy is facing many uncertainties, the advantages of China's industrial chain and supply chain have laid a solid foundation for the sustained growth of foreign trade. Prices supported the strong growth of China's exports. Since the beginning of this year, the Russian Ukrainian conflict has continued, and the Russian Ukrainian negotiations have not made substantive progress so far. As a result, bulk commodities have remained at a high level, crude oil supply is tight, inflation is constantly pushing up, and commodity prices such as natural gas and wheat have also continued to rise. The global inflation pressure is rising, and the price factor makes a great contribution to exports. At present, the export growth rate is obviously supported by prices, and the quantity growth rate has slowed down. In the context of the high base in the same period last year, the downward pressure on export growth will become greater in the future. Among them, the year-on-year growth rate of IC export volume from January to February was - 4.6%, but the export volume increased by 23.2%. Affected by the global energy shortage, the supply capacity of overseas markets is limited, the increase in international market demand is good for China's exports, and the mismatch between supply and demand supports China's export resilience. China's economy has recovered steadily. Although there is a certain pressure for steady growth, the main economic indicators continue to improve, and China has issued a series of policies and measures to support the steady growth of foreign trade, which has laid a solid foundation for the steady growth of foreign trade.
The import of bulk commodities showed a trend of "volume reduction and price increase". The price reduction of imports of crude oil, coal and natural gas is rising, which is mainly affected by the rise in international commodity prices, causing certain pressure on imports. However, due to China's infrastructure development, China's imports of raw material commodities are expected to expand marginally. In terms of price, energy and commodity prices remain high under covid-19 epidemic and geographical conflict. From the perspective of demand, the pressure on China's steady growth will increase. With infrastructure as the starting point and expanding investment, the demand for bulk commodities will increase.
Risk tips: the overseas epidemic fluctuates more than expected, the downstream demand is less than expected, and the monetary policy changes.
