One of the puzzles about the pig cycle at present is the relationship between the arrival of the pig price inflection point and the sector configuration. We believe that we should configure in the stage of continuous depopulation of fertile sows + bottom grinding of pig price, pay close attention to the breeding stocks with relatively low stock price, wait for the arrival of the significant depopulation of fertile sows + inflection point of pig price, and welcome the upward cycle of pig price + accelerated upward stage of breeding stock price. We mainly discuss two issues: 1. Possible inflection point time (possible time point of main rising wave). From the supply side, according to the Yongyi data, we can roughly calculate the number of fat pigs in the next six months at the sample level. Although the sample can not show the whole picture, it can predict the trend to a certain extent. The number of 22q2-3 pigs sold showed a high downward trend. From the demand side, there is a short period of demand fluctuation during the year. According to the monthly pig price month on month trend from 2007 to 21, the pig price fell month on month from February to April, rose month on month from May to August, fell again from September to October, and then rose month on month from November to January next year. The current April season is in the theoretical stage of decline in pig prices month on month. Considering the inhibitory effect of covid-19 epidemic on pork consumption. Although the sample data side deduces the downward trend of the supply side of newborn pigs, it is still in a high state. Therefore, combined with the comprehensive judgment of restricted consumption, recovery time and downward but high supply side, we deduce that the possible inflection point of pig price appears in 22q3. 2. What stage has the current pig cycle investment entered (what is the investment safety margin at the current time point). From the perspective of Pb and average market value, the monthly peak of Pb in the pig breeding sub industry from 14 years to this life is basically close, 7.12 and 7.23 times respectively, and its lowest point is 1.99 and 2.63 times respectively. In the current round of pig cycle since 21 years, the low point of pig breeding Pb fell to 2.4 times, and then started the shock recovery trend, reaching 3.18 times on April 13, 22, compared with the low point of + 32.5%. Compared with the historical peak, the present is only the beginning, and there is still room to double in the future. In terms of average market value, leading enterprises are in the region with low historical average, and some high growth pig enterprises have completed the valuation repair stage. Pig cycle investment is on the eve of the outbreak, with significant allocation significance.
In March, the sales volume of pigs of listed pig enterprises increased by 44% month on month. In March, the sales volume of pigs of listed breeding enterprises totaled about 119261 million; Considering the factors of the company’s disclosure methods, we excluded Muyuan Foods Co.Ltd(002714) (5.986 million pigs were listed, with a year-on-year increase of + 111%) to calculate the chain comparison. The total number of listed pig enterprises listed in March was + 43.6%, with an increase of each company (6.7% to 192.9%); Among them, Shenzhen Kingsino Technology Co.Ltd(002548) , Tecon Biology Co.Ltd(002100) , Jiangxi Zhengbang Technology Co.Ltd(002157) , Dongrui Food Group Co.Ltd(001201) , New Hope Liuhe Co.Ltd(000876) . Considering that February is the lunar new year period, the operating rate is low, which pushes up the month on month data published in March to a certain extent.
In March, the price of pigs in pig enterprises was – 1.4% month on month, and the average weight of pigs was down again. The selling price and average weight of pigs in breeding enterprises were down month on month. In March, the average price of pigs in the industry was 12.27 yuan / kg, down from – 5.32% in February. The average selling price of live pigs of listed pig enterprises in March was about 11.72 yuan / kg (excluding Dongrui Food Group Co.Ltd(001201) ), with a month on month ratio of – 1.41%, lower than the industry average price of 4.48%; Over the past 22 years, the selling prices of fat pigs of listed breeding enterprises have been lower than the industry average, which can be partly attributed to factors such as low price regional concentration, large marketing scale and so on. In March, the average weight of listed pig enterprises increased and decreased (mean 113.32kg, mom-1.71%), which was at a cyclical low as a whole. According to the statistics of Yongyi data, the average weight of the industry in March was about 116.93kg.
Investment suggestions we suggest to focus on: first, the “leading” enterprises, including Muyuan Foods Co.Ltd(002714) ( Muyuan Foods Co.Ltd(002714) . SZ), Wens Foodstuff Group Co.Ltd(300498) ( Wens Foodstuff Group Co.Ltd(300498) . SZ), New Hope Liuhe Co.Ltd(000876) ( New Hope Liuhe Co.Ltd(000876) . SZ), etc; Second, “small but beautiful” enterprises, including Tangrenshen Group Co.Ltd(002567) ( Tangrenshen Group Co.Ltd(002567) . SZ), Tecon Biology Co.Ltd(002100) ( Tecon Biology Co.Ltd(002100) . SZ) Fujian Aonong Biological Technology Group Incorporation Limited(603363) ( Fujian Aonong Biological Technology Group Incorporation Limited(603363) . SH), etc. In addition, we can actively pay attention to Shenzhen Kingsino Technology Co.Ltd(002548) ( Shenzhen Kingsino Technology Co.Ltd(002548) . SZ), Tech-Bank Food Co.Ltd(002124) ( Tech-Bank Food Co.Ltd(002124) . SZ), COFCO Jiakang (1610. HK), etc.
Risk warning: risk of raw material price fluctuation; Risk of epidemic disease; The risk that the pig price is lower than expected.
