In the home sector, PE is predicted to be 13X in the next 12 months, and PE in the home sector is at the bottom of history. At present, the home sector is at the same valuation level as October 2018, 2019 and March 2020. We believe that the reasonable PE range of the home subject is 20-30x. Home furnishing is the most potential track in the subdivided field of real estate in the later cycle, and the market share has great room for improvement. According to our calculation, under the neutral assumption, the scale of customized cabinet industry is about 100.9 billion yuan, and the scale of wardrobe is about 135.8 billion yuan. In 2020, the market share of retail European style kitchen cabinet and Suofeiya Home Collection Co.Ltd(002572) wardrobe is only 6% and 5%. In 2020, the market share of gujia and Minhua domestic sofa is 5% and 6% respectively, and the market share of Xlinmen Furniture Co.Ltd(603008) , mousse domestic mattress is 4% and 7% respectively. In addition, the penetration rate of household products still has room to improve. In recent years, 60% of customized cabinets, 30% of customized wardrobe, 60% of mattresses, about 4.4% of sales penetration rate of functional sofa and 12% of sales penetration rate. Under the background of downward real estate fundamentals, the policy continues to exceed expectations, and the real estate chain will continue to benefit. Based on the closing price on April 13, 2022, according to the team's prediction, the home leading PE for 22 years: Oppein Home Group Inc(603833) 22x, Jason Furniture (Hangzhou) Co.Ltd(603816) 18x, Suofeiya Home Collection Co.Ltd(002572) 13x, 60 Shenzhen Jove Enterprise Limited(300814) x, Zbom Home Collection Co.Ltd(603801) 12x; According to the consistent prediction of wind, Goldenhome Living Co.Ltd(603180) 22 years pe12x.
How to increase the market share? We believe that the perfection of each link of channels, products, services and manufacturing can improve the degree of concentration. At present, leading enterprises have entered the stage of giving full play to their scale advantages and crowding out local brands. The leader's ability to diversify channels, fine management and empower dealers has far exceeded that of its peers. Leading enterprises optimize service links, and informatization, logistics, installation and other processes are also continuously improving. In terms of product development, consumers' awareness of the brand is improved, and large brand R & D investment is large. The leading intelligent manufacturing capacity has opened the gap with small brands and reduced production costs. 22q1 home orders are still stable. Through the whole product, the unit price of terminal customers has increased significantly Oppein Home Group Inc(603833) most packages include large household products such as finished furniture, and the 29800 / 39800 package can be upgraded to Chivas sofa Suofeiya Home Collection Co.Ltd(002572) 39800 whole family package, including Chivas sofa, Shuda soft bed and mattress, as well as brand household appliances. Gujia 79800 high-end light luxury package for the whole family, including 24 ㎡ customized environmental protection cabinet and 60000 yuan soft furniture.
The marginal improvement of real estate policy and home valuation are expected to be repaired. On March 5, the government work report mentioned not only insisting on housing without speculation, but also supporting commercial housing to meet the reasonable housing needs of buyers. On March 16, the special meeting of the financial Commission emphasized "steady growth". The CBRC encouraged institutions to carry out M & A loans in a stable and orderly manner and supported the mergers and acquisitions of high-quality real estate enterprises. The Ministry of Finance said that it did not have the conditions to expand the pilot cities of real estate tax reform this year, and the market's sad expectation of the real estate industry was revised. Due to the gradual promotion of urban construction policies, since the beginning of the year, some third, fourth and second tier cities have gradually relaxed the real estate regulation policies, and the regulation intensity has gradually increased, evolving from house purchase subsidies and provident fund loan preferences to the relaxation of sales and loans restrictions.
In the domestic home furnishing sector, the profit growth of the home furnishing industry lags behind the sales cycle of new houses by 4-6 quarters. The renewal demand of existing houses is more related to the age and consumption capacity of houses, and the requirements of residents for quality housing. Assuming that the newly traded commercial housing will be renovated once every 15 years, 2020 will usher in the new housing sales peak starting in 2005. From 2005 to 21, the scale of new housing sales in China has repeatedly reached new highs, of which the scale increase from 2008 to 15 is the most significant. Based on this, we believe that the renewal demand of existing housing may rise significantly in the next three years. We estimate that the national demand for stock renewal will be about 3.38 million units / 3.75 million units / 4.39 million units / 5.17 million units in 2022 / 2023 / 2024 / 2025.
Risk tip: the real estate regulation is tightened, the price of raw materials fluctuates, and the epidemic spread exceeds expectations. The calculation of the stock housing market space in this paper is based on certain assumptions, and there may be deviations.
