\u3000\u30 China Baoan Group Co.Ltd(000009) 02 Xinyangfeng Agricultural Technology Co.Ltd(000902) )
Event: in 2021, the company realized an operating revenue of RMB 11.802 billion, a year-on-year increase of 17.21%, a net profit attributable to the parent company of RMB 1.21 billion, a year-on-year increase of 26.7%, and a net profit deducted from non attributable to the parent company of RMB 1.183 billion, a year-on-year increase of 28.5%. 2021q4 achieved an operating revenue of 2.263 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 23.92%, a month on month decrease of 20.15%, a net profit attributable to the parent company of 159 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 0.14%, a month on month decrease of 54.61%, and a deduction of non attributable net profit of 143 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 20.29% and a month on month decrease of 58.88%.
Comments:
The performance has been steadily improved and the profitability has been strengthened. The company realized an operating revenue of RMB 11.802 billion in 2021, with a year-on-year increase of 17.21%; In Q4, the net profit attributable to the parent company was 159 million yuan in a single quarter, a year-on-year decrease of 0.14% and a month on month decrease of 54.61%. In terms of profitability, the gross profit margin of the company in 2021 was 18.90%, a year-on-year increase of 0.90pct, the net profit margin was 10.44%, a year-on-year increase of 0.79pct, and the roe was 16.30%, a year-on-year increase of 2.11pct; The gross profit margin of 2021q4 was 14.14%, increased by 7.93pct year-on-year, decreased by 6.68pct month on month, the net profit margin was 7.19%, decreased by 1.7pct year on year, decreased by 5.27pct month on month, roe was 2.01%, decreased by 0.31pct year on year and 2.56pct month on month. In terms of period expenses, the total period expense rate of the company in 2021 was 6.07%, a year-on-year decrease of 0.35pct. Among them, the sales expense rate was 2.32%, a year-on-year decrease of 0.31pct, the management expense (including R & D expenses, comparable caliber) rate was 3.79%, a year-on-year decrease of 0.31pct, and the financial expense rate was -0.04%, a year-on-year increase of 0.28pct.
The demand of chemical fertilizer market has increased, and the price of main products has risen. In 2021, the general rise of major Shenzhen Agricultural Products Group Co.Ltd(000061) prices such as corn and wheat led to the recovery of the planting industry and continuously boosted the demand for chemical fertilizer. At the same time, the price of staple food was strong, boosting the prices of compound fertilizer and phosphate fertilizer. On the supply side, the phosphorus and compound fertilizer industry association requires that by 2025, the production capacity of 2.5 million tons of phosphate fertilizer will be eliminated and the total production capacity of the industry will be controlled below 20 million tons P2O5 / year. However, the high terminal Shenzhen Agricultural Products Group Co.Ltd(000061) demand and tight supply and demand push up the product price. According to Zhuo Chuang information, the average prices of the company’s main products compound fertilizer and monoammonium phosphate in 2021 were 2845 yuan / ton and 2939 yuan / ton respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 21% and 51%. Superimposed on the advantages of the whole industrial chain brought by the company’s capacity layout in raw materials such as phosphate rock, synthetic ammonia and sulfuric acid, the price of the company’s main products rose and thickened its performance.
Open up the upstream and downstream of the industrial chain, and the new capacity of iron and lithium is expected to thicken the company’s performance. The company is committed to enriching the upstream resources of phosphorus chemical industry: the company acquired 100% shares of Leibo mining industry held by the controlling shareholder Yangfeng group. Leibo mining industry has a phosphate rock production capacity of about 900000 tons. In addition, Yangfeng Chuyuan, a wholly-owned subsidiary of the company, plans to invest in a comprehensive utilization project of phosphorus chemical industry and phosphate rock associated fluorosilicone resources in Ruichang City, Jiangxi Province, including 1.5 million tons of beneficiation, 300000 tons of phosphoric acid, 250000 tons of purified phosphoric acid, 900000 tons of sulfuric acid and other upstream and midstream products of phosphorus chemical industry, And 30000 tons of anhydrous hydrogen fluoride, 10000 tons of lithium hexafluorophosphate and other new material projects. And continuously open up the layout of downstream industrial chain: the company invested in the construction of 200000 tons of iron phosphate project in Jingmen, of which the 50000 tons of iron phosphate project in phase I has passed the preliminary approval of environmental impact assessment and energy assessment, and entered trial production, and bound with front-line customers Jiangsu Lopal Tech.Co.Ltd(603906) ; Phase II, together with Gem Co.Ltd(002340) , a leading enterprise in the supply chain of the new energy industry, jointly funded the construction of not less than 150000 tons of iron phosphate per year and not less than 100000 tons of lithium iron phosphate per year, and supported the construction of 1.5 million tons of beneficiation per year, 300000 tons of pyrite to sulfuric acid per year, 400000 tons of sulfur to sulfuric acid per year, 200000 tons of phosphoric acid per year and 300000 tons of slag acid per year; Yangfeng Chuyuan, a wholly-owned subsidiary of the company, has invested and built a production line with an annual output of 100000 tons of iron phosphate and 50000 tons of lithium iron phosphate in Yidu, and a supporting 100000 tons of refined phosphoric acid production line. According to the company’s announcement, the 150000 tons of Zhongxiang phase II and 100000 tons of iron phosphate in Yidu are expected to start trial production in the second half of 2022. With the company’s industrial chain layout becoming more and more complete, and the iron phosphate lithium iron phosphate products are directly bound to the downstream head enterprises, the company is expected to continue to consolidate its cost advantage and benefit from the rapid development of lithium iron phosphate track.
Profit forecast: according to the launch schedule of the company’s new iron phosphate production capacity (50000 tons of iron phosphate in Jingmen and Jiangsu Lopal Tech.Co.Ltd(603906) cooperation, 150000 tons of iron phosphate in Gem Co.Ltd(002340) cooperation and 100000 tons of iron phosphate in Yidu, we adjusted the profit forecast. It is estimated that the net profit attributable to the parent company from 2022 to 2024 will be 1.588 billion yuan (formerly 1.384 billion yuan), 2.045 billion yuan (formerly 1.511 billion yuan) and 2.386 billion yuan (newly increased), EPS is 1.22 yuan, 1.57 yuan and 1.83 yuan respectively. It is estimated that the net profit attributable to the parent company from 2022 to 2024 will be 1.588 billion yuan, 2.045 billion yuan and 2.386 billion yuan respectively, and the EPS will be 1.22 yuan, 1.57 yuan and 1.83 yuan respectively, which is rated as “buy”.
Risk warning: the downstream demand is less than the expected risk; The new project is less than the expected risk; Safety and environmental protection risks.
