\u3000\u30003 Mesnac Co.Ltd(002073) 00207)
Key investment points
Event: on April 12, the company released its 2021 annual report, realizing an operating revenue of 37.4 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 25.8%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 920 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 14.2%; The net profit deducted from non parent company was 530 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 101.7%. The gross profit margin in 2021 was 14.69%, with a year-on-year increase of -0.2pct; The net interest rate was 2.29%, year-on-year -0.4pct.
The actual performance is in line with the forecast, with a sharp rise in raw materials and profit pressure: the company previously predicted that it would realize a net profit attributable to the parent company of RMB 800960 million in 21 years, and the actual performance is in the upper middle range. Corresponding to 21q4, the company achieved a revenue of 11.8 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 27.6% and a month on month increase of + 18.9%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 250 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of – 25.3% and a month on month increase of + 371.8%; Net profit deducted from non parent company was RMB 80 million, with a year-on-year increase of – 41.0% and a month on month increase of – 66.4%. The decline in profits is mainly due to the irrational sharp rise in the prices of upstream raw materials in the past 21 years, and the company’s profitability is obviously under pressure. 21q4 gross profit margin was 11.4%, year-on-year -2.4pct; The net interest rate was 1.67%, year-on-year -1.9pct.
The capital increase has introduced a number of well-known automobile enterprises, and the power is in hand. The orders are full: the company’s power batteries are arranged with ternary and lithium iron phosphate at the same time, and Bev, HEV and 48V are fully covered. In 2021, the total shipment volume will reach 352gwh, corresponding to the sales revenue of 2.933 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 584.7%. HEV products will be delivered in batches in 22 years. In terms of customers, the company continues to be informed of the fixed points of famous car enterprises. Since 2019, it has successively established cooperation with Renault, Nissan, yijiete, Geely, Dongfeng, GAC, SAIC GM Wuling and SAIC passenger cars. At the same time, it has previously announced that 19 enterprises plan to increase their capital to take shares in power battery subsidiaries with a total of 2.43 billion yuan, involving many well-known car enterprises such as Weilai, Xiaopeng, ideal, SAIC, GAC and Dongfeng or their affiliates. The company’s power battery has a strong competitive advantage in the industry. The orders on hand are full, and the irrational rise of upstream raw materials is a short-term factor. In the long run, the impact will gradually subside.
3C cell continues to grow, and the rise of energy storage can be expected: in terms of 3C cell, the production capacity of 300000 units / day in Lanxi, Zhejiang Province in 21 years has completed the action of production expansion and capacity climbing, and the lithium battery of pen battery continues to develop the world’s leading brand manufacturers, driving the revenue and profit to rise simultaneously. In the 21st year, Huizhou Liwei achieved a revenue of 4.15 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 71%; The net profit was 740 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 80%. In terms of energy storage, the company’s energy storage cell production line is expected to be put into operation and delivered in batches in 22 years. It will be fully laid out in terms of power, network energy, household and portable application energy storage. The products fully cooperating with head customers will be delivered in batches in 22 years. The company has an early layout of energy storage, has a high-quality customer base, and can expect future growth.
Investment suggestion: it was previously estimated that the net profit attributable to the parent company in 202223 would be 1.6/2 billion yuan. Considering the pressure on profitability caused by the sharp rise in the price of raw materials, we adjusted the profit forecast. It is estimated that the net profit attributable to the parent company in 202224 will be 1.0/25/33 billion yuan, corresponding to 40 / 16 / 13 times of PE, maintaining the “buy” rating.
Risk tip: the price of raw materials rises sharply, the sales volume of new energy vehicles is lower than expected, and the information and data used in the research report are not updated in time.
