\u3000\u3 Jointo Energy Investment Co.Ltd.Hebei(000600) 809 Shanxi Xinghuacun Fen Wine Factory Co.Ltd(600809) )
Event: the company released the main financial data of 2021 and the forecast of the first quarter of 2022. In 2021, the revenue reached 19.971 billion yuan, an increase of 42.75%, which was in line with the previous expectation, and the net profit attributable to the parent company was 5.314 billion yuan, an increase of 72.56%, which was in line with the previous performance forecast. The revenue and net profit attributable to the parent company in the fourth quarter were 2.714 billion yuan and 435 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 24.92% and 29.61% respectively. In 2022, Q1 is expected to achieve a total operating revenue and net profit attributable to parent company of about 10.5 billion yuan and 3.7 billion yuan, with an increase of about 43% and 70% respectively. The sales have made a good start, and the revenue and profit are higher than expected.
Q4 actively controlled the rhythm and made a good start in the 22nd year as scheduled. The performance of the company’s revenue and profit in the fourth quarter was related to the active control of the market rhythm since the second half of last year. The overall sales rhythm of last year was as strong as ever, repeatedly exceeding the planned progress. In the fourth quarter, the company sorted out the appropriate market rhythm and price order, focused on the cultivation of consumer products and publicity, and took the initiative to control the operation rhythm and cost. By the end of 2021, the company’s inventory had reached a record low and the price had the best history Dealers’ profitability, enthusiasm and market order have reached the best in history. The operation rhythm is accurate, the control + brand potential energy is continuously released, which helps to achieve a successful start in 2022. Under the high base in the first quarter of 21, the revenue and profit have continued the high growth of the whole year of 21 years.
Blue and white led the structure to continue to rise, and the net interest rate in a single quarter hit a record high. In the past 22 years, we have continuously strengthened the focus on blue and white and improved the proportion of blue and white. The two indicators of blue and white sales volume and green 20 channel scale should be increased. The indicators of blue and white Fen Liquor opinion leaders should be assessed. From the sales team to the channel terminal, we should focus on blue and white and guide dealers to focus on the revival version. From the channel feedback, blue and white achieved rapid growth in the first quarter, Bofen was relatively stable under the overall control of goods and setting, and the waist products also performed well. The structure continued to rise + Bofen’s orderly cost recovery efforts helped the Q1 net interest rate reach a record high of 35.24%. In addition, qing40, a higher line product, has also begun to sell in the platform business model, playing a good role as a strategic price benchmark, and Qinghua cultural innovation and other non-standard products have also begun to explore. The overall blue and white product matrix is becoming more and more perfect, and the layout of each price band is conducive to the sales performance of the revival version.
Seamless personnel connection, upgrading and iteration of marketing system, incentive reform and digital transformation ensure the company’s long-term development strategy. After taking office for more than three months, the new chairman has conducted research and in-depth understanding in many places, quickly and deeply understood the industry, highly recognized the achievements and contributions of the existing team, and seamlessly connected personnel. The background of chairman yuan’s resume shows that the Shanxi government has increased its support for the company and raised the development of the company to a higher strategic significance. In 2022, we set the tone to pursue while winning, take advantage of the situation, better efficiency, better structure and better quality. We expect that this year is worth looking forward to in terms of revenue and profit. As the starting point of the first round of reform, after several rounds of upgrading and iteration, the reform goal and reconstruction of SASAC will be completed in 17-18 years. The optimization and upgrading in 18-19 years will enter the era of 2.0 and upgrade to the era of 3.0 in 20-21 years. In the future, it will maintain high-quality development and benchmark excellent enterprises in the industry. Previously, the first phase of equity incentive stimulated the vitality of core employees and achieved remarkable results. In the current development stage of the company, the second incentive reform will be implemented in more ways and from a more overall perspective from the perspective of improving systematic and systematic combat capability. The digital transformation is advancing steadily. At present, the information construction is beginning to take shape. In the future, the data center will be built, and the front-end information of Fen Liquor Marketing will be widely used.
Profit forecast and valuation
Under the repeated background of the epidemic, the terminal demand is affected by objective facts. But at present, Baijiu consumption is low and the channel mentality is stable. The company is also conscious of coping with and controlling the market rhythm in advance. Therefore, we believe that with the improvement of the epidemic situation in the future, the consumption scene will gradually recover, and the impact of the epidemic will be controllable throughout the year. We give the company a revenue growth rate of 31% and 25% in 2022 and 2023, a profit growth rate of 52.25% and 32%, an EPS of 6.63 and 8.75 yuan / share, and a share price corresponding to pe38 67, 29.3 times. The current Baijiu sector valuation adjustment is more adequate, taking into account the external market monetary tightening expectations for the overall market valuation, giving the company 50 times valuation in 2022, target price of 331.5 yuan, to maintain the buy rating.
Risk tip: the high-end is less than expected, and the epidemic repeatedly affects the sales less than expected.
