\u3000\u3 China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) 371 Naura Technology Group Co.Ltd(002371) )
Matters:
Company announcement: the 2021 performance express predicts that in 2021, the company will realize an operating revenue of 9.683 billion yuan (yoy59.9%), a net profit attributable to the parent company of 1.077 billion yuan (yoy100.7%), and deduct a net profit not attributable to the parent company of 807 million yuan (yoy309.5%), of which 4q21 will realize an operating revenue of 3.510 billion yuan (yoy58.1%, qoq36.8%), a net profit attributable to the parent company of 419 million yuan (yoy99.5%, qoq20.4%), and a net profit not attributable to the parent company of 282 million yuan (yoy181.8%, qoq-6.0%); The performance forecast for the first quarter of 2022 is expected that the operating revenue of 1q22 is 1.993-2.278 billion yuan (YoY 40% – 60%), the net profit attributable to the parent is 197219 million yuan (YoY 170% – 200%), and the net profit not attributable to the parent is 148161 million yuan (yoy 360% – 400%).
Guoxin electronics view: Naura Technology Group Co.Ltd(002371) is a leading equipment manufacturer in China, with etching, furnace tube and PVD as its three main products in the semiconductor manufacturing field, which has been successfully introduced into China’s major wafer foundry, advanced storage manufacturer and a wide range of semiconductor manufacturing projects in other fields on a large scale; The company is also active in cleaning, CVD and other fields. At the same time, it also has the business of photovoltaic equipment, panel equipment, LED equipment and components in the field of Pan semiconductor. We believe that with extensive product line layout and rich experience in verification and commercial introduction, the company is expected to fully benefit from the large cycle of local wafer manufacturing and expansion. It is estimated that the company’s revenue from 2022 to 2023 will be RMB 14.322 billion and 19.465 billion, with a year-on-year increase of 47.9% and 35.9%, corresponding to 8.88 and 6.53 times PS in 2022 and 2023, maintaining the “buy” rating.
Comments:
The business of electronic process equipment and electronic components welcomes the opportunity of domestic alternative development, and the performance will increase significantly in 2021
According to the performance express, in 2021 Naura Technology Group Co.Ltd(002371) achieved operating revenue of 9.683 billion yuan (yoy59.9%), net profit attributable to parent company of 1.077 billion yuan (yoy100.7%), net profit not attributable to parent company of 807 million yuan (yoy309.5%), of which 4q21 achieved operating revenue of 3.510 billion yuan (yoy58.1%, qoq36.8%), net profit attributable to parent company of 419 million yuan (yoy99.5%, qoq20.4%), net profit not attributable to parent company of 282 million yuan (yoy181.8%, qoq-6.0%). The main reason for the continuous growth of business performance is that the company’s electronic process equipment and electronic components business are still facing good development opportunities. By accelerating technological innovation, gathering development resources, grasping market opportunities and effectively preventing and controlling risks, the company’s business work is carried out smoothly.
Downstream demand for electronic process equipment and electronic components continued to be strong, and 1q22 continued high growth
According to the performance forecast of the first quarter of 2022, 1q22 company is expected to achieve operating revenue of 1.993-2.278 billion yuan (YoY 40% – 60%), net profit attributable to parent company of 197219 million yuan (YoY 170% – 200%), net profit deducting non attributable to parent company of 148161 million yuan (YoY 360% – 400%), with median values of 2.135, 208 and 155 million yuan respectively, with year-on-year growth of 50%, 184.6% and 383.3%, and month on month growth of – 39.2%, – 50.4% and – 45.2%. The substantial year-on-year increase in performance was mainly due to the strong demand in the downstream market of the main business, the continuous growth of the company’s electronic process equipment and electronic components business, and the month on month decline was caused by seasonal factors.
Naura Technology Group Co.Ltd(002371) front channel equipment is widely distributed, and the strong cycle of local wafer expansion is expected to fully benefit
China’s wafer manufacturing expansion cycle has begun. According to SIA data, in 2021 alone, Chinese local manufacturers announced 28 new manufacturing line projects, involving a total investment of US $26 billion, including both SMIC Oriental with a total investment of US $8.9 billion and SMIC Shenzhen 28nm and above mature foundry production lines with a total investment of US $2.4 billion, as well as many analog, discrete devices, compound semiconductor production lines and experimental lines. According to the construction cost of wafer production line with front-end equipment accounting for 70% – 80%, combined with the prediction of plant construction time, the new production line construction project in 2021 alone is expected to release the market demand of front-end equipment totaling US $18.2 billion to US $20.8 billion from 2021 to 2024.
Naura Technology Group Co.Ltd(002371) front process equipment is widely distributed and the development track is broad. Wafer manufacturing manufactures integrated circuits on the wafer surface through cyclic repeated oxidation / diffusion (thermal process), photolithography (Photo Lithography), etch (etch), ion implantation (ionimplant), dielectricand metal deposition, clean & CMP, metallization and other main processes. The corresponding process equipment includes oxidation / diffusion equipment, lithography equipment, etching equipment, cleaning equipment Ion implantation equipment, film deposition equipment, mechanical polishing equipment, etc Naura Technology Group Co.Ltd(002371) semiconductor manufacturing equipment product line includes five major types of equipment: chemical vapor deposition (CVD), physical vapor deposition (PVD), etching, heat treatment / oxidation and cleaning, as well as other equipment such as MFC and auxiliary equipment. According to Gartner data, Naura Technology Group Co.Ltd(002371) involved five types of equipment account for nearly 50% of the global front-end equipment market share, corresponding to a market size of nearly $50 billion, and the track is broad.
In recent years, Naura Technology Group Co.Ltd(002371) ‘s product lines have successfully passed the verification of large Chinese wafer manufacturers and successively obtained orders. In this round of local wafer manufacturing capacity expansion cycle, the company is expected to grow rapidly. On the one hand, China’s semiconductor equipment enterprises, including Naura Technology Group Co.Ltd(002371) and others, are significantly lower than international manufacturers in terms of product quantity and market share due to their late establishment, while their operating performance shows that their revenue and profit volume are relatively small; On the other hand, with the increase of local demand and the uncertainty of the international environment, the company has the opportunity to accelerate the entry verification and commercialization of large-scale entry into local wafer manufacturing plants. We believe that under the current expansion cycle of China’s semiconductor production capacity and the complex international environment, the necessity of localization of the industrial chain continues to increase, and the company has great growth space. The company is expected to gradually increase China’s market share from point to area, so as to significantly improve its performance.
Risk tips
1. Risk that the downstream wafer manufacturing capacity expansion is less than expected: the company’s main business is the manufacturing of semiconductor equipment and other equipment, and the typical downstream customers are wafer manufacturers such as IDM and wafer foundry. If the wafer manufacturing capacity expansion is less than expected, it will lead to the decline of equipment demand, the company can not meet the needs of customers, or the performance will be less than expected;
2. Risk that the company’s capacity expansion is less than expected: if the company’s main business includes special equipment including semiconductor equipment, its own capacity expansion is less than expected, or the company will be unable to meet the needs of customers, or the performance will be less than expected;
3. The risk of new product development falling short of expectations: for example, the company’s new product development and import progress fall short of expectations, or the products will miss the best listing window, resulting in the loss of customers and the pressure on the selling price, resulting in the performance falling short of expectations.
