\u3000\u3 China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) 126 Zhejiang Yinlun Machinery Co.Ltd(002126) )
The company released its annual report for 2021: the company’s revenue / net profit attributable to the parent company in 2021 was 7.82 billion /220million, with a year-on-year increase of +23.6%/-31.5% respectively. Among them, the revenue of 4q21 was 1.99 billion (the same / month on month ratio was + 9.3% / + 11.7%), the net profit attributable to the parent company was 4.65 million (the same / month on month ratio was – 89.1% / – 88.5%), the net profit deducted from non attributable to the parent company was 23.17 million (the same / month on month ratio was + 14.7% / – 19.8%), and the non current items of 4q21 were mainly included in the loss of investment income of 32.5 million.
1. Revenue side: new energy customer driven growth. In 2021, the revenue of the company’s commercial vehicle & non Road business / passenger vehicle business / industrial and civil business was 5.03 billion / 2.24 billion / 320 million respectively, with a year-on-year increase of + 11.1% / + 64.7% / + 51.8% respectively, of which the revenue of new energy vehicle thermal management business was 840 million, with a year-on-year increase of + 189.7%.
2. Profit side: gross profit margin is under pressure. 1) Gross profit margin. The gross profit margin of 2021 / 4q21 was 20.4% / 19.7% respectively, with a year-on-year increase of – 3.5pct / – 2.3pct respectively. In terms of splitting, the gross profit margin of commercial vehicle & non Road business / passenger vehicle business in 2021 was 21.8% / 13.8% respectively, with a year-on-year increase of -1.8pct / – 2.2pct respectively. It is expected that the increase in sea freight and the price of raw materials is the main reason for the pressure on the gross profit margin; 2) Cost rate. 2021 / 4q21 company’s three fee expense ratio is – 1.4pct / – 2.0pct year-on-year, and the R & D expense ratio is – 0.1pct / + 1.2pct year-on-year respectively; 3) Profit margin. In 2021 / 4q21, the net interest rate deducted by the company was 2.7% / 1.2%, with a year-on-year increase of -1.5pct / + 0.1pct respectively. Throughout the year, the net profit margin of the company was under pressure, since the gross profit margin fell, and the cost control and cost reduction had a positive effect.
New energy heat management + industrial heat exchanger is expected to grow rapidly, and the landing of equity incentive will help release the potential.
1) there are plenty of new project orders. In 2021, the company successively obtained 141 new projects, including air conditioning box assembly of North American new energy benchmark car enterprises, Chongqing Changan Automobile Company Limited(000625) electronic water pump, front-end module and thermal management integration module of new forces of Chinese car making, Volvo car battery cooling board and cooling module, Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) battery cooling board, John Deere cooling module, caterpillar cooling module, manhummer oil cooler, Daimler oil cooler assembly, etc. After the completion of new projects, it is expected to increase the annual sales revenue of nearly 4.12 billion yuan (of which the new energy vehicle business accounts for about 48.7%); 2) Equity incentive landing. In April 2022, the company completed the equity incentive plan and granted 49.49 million stock options (exercise price: 10.1 yuan / share) to 384 senior executives and core backbones including the party secretary and general manager. The income and profit assessment are required to be no less than 9 billion / 10.8 billion / 13 billion and 4.0/54.4/780 million respectively in 2022 / 23 / 24.
Investment suggestion: we expect the company to achieve operating revenue of 8.47 billion yuan, 10.81 billion yuan and 13.47 billion yuan in 2022, 2023 and 2024, corresponding to net profit attributable to parent company of 350 million yuan, 500 million yuan and 800 million yuan. Calculated at today’s closing price, PE is 19.2 times, 13.4 times and 8.3 times. It is covered for the first time and given a “buy” rating.
Risk tip: the mitigation degree of chip shortage is lower than expected, the rise of raw material cost is higher than expected, and the recovery of automobile market demand is lower than expected
