Kaide quartz (835179)
Company events: the company released its annual report for 2021: in 2021, the company achieved a revenue of 166 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.45%; The net profit was 398155 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 15.58%. The net operating cash flow was 68.66 million yuan, an increase of 105.7% year-on-year.
Quartz products are advancing steadily and the downstream semiconductor industry is developing well: in 2021, the company made smooth progress in the R & D, production and sales of quartz glass products. ① in the semiconductor field, with the continuous improvement of the prosperity of the downstream semiconductor integrated circuit industry, the customer orders of quartz products for semiconductor integrated circuit chips increased, and the operating revenue of quartz products for semiconductor integrated circuit chips was 126 million yuan in 2021, A year-on-year increase of 37.75%, accounting for 75.71% of the annual operating revenue. ② In the field of photovoltaic Cecep Solar Energy Co.Ltd(000591) industry, China's photovoltaic industry continued to improve in 2021. However, due to the impact of the company's overall production capacity, the income of quartz products used in the photovoltaic Cecep Solar Energy Co.Ltd(000591) industry decreased relatively. In 2021, the operating revenue of quartz products for photovoltaic Cecep Solar Energy Co.Ltd(000591) industry was 393794 million yuan, accounting for 23.74% of the annual operating revenue. By increasing product R & D and developing new customers, the company achieved a revenue of 166 million yuan and a net profit of 39.82 million yuan in 2021, and the overall business was steadily promoted.
Semiconductor capacity transfer promoted the continuous increase of orders, and the proportion of semiconductors in total revenue rose to 76%. The company's semiconductor quartz products mainly include quartz boat, quartz pipeline and quartz instrument. The main application links include oxidation, diffusion, chemical vapor deposition (CVD), cleaning and etching. According to the company's prospectus, in 2020, the global market scale of quartz products was about 29.160 billion yuan, and the semiconductor field accounted for about 65%, reaching 18.953 billion yuan. In 2021, thanks to the downstream semiconductor production capacity transfer, the development supported by national industrial policies and the gradual expansion of wafer factories, quartz products for semiconductors developed rapidly. In 2021, the customer orders of quartz products for semiconductor integrated circuit chips of the company continued to increase, and the revenue of this business reached 126 million yuan, accounting for 76% of the annual revenue and the gross profit margin increased to 55%.
The demand for upgrading the photovoltaic industry increased, and the photovoltaic revenue decreased to 393794 million yuan due to the impact of production capacity: the company's quartz products used in the photovoltaic field mainly include horizontal quartz boat, horizontal furnace tube, liquid receiving bottle, source bottle, quartz baffle and other quartz instruments, which are mainly used in specific process links such as oxidation, diffusion and CVD. The national "double carbon" policy is actively guiding the adjustment of energy structure and the development of photovoltaic industry. It is expected that the proportion of photovoltaic power generation will rise from 11% in 2020 to 27% in 2030. It is predicted that China's photovoltaic installed capacity will rise from 253gw in 2020 to 5000gw in 2050. With the steady growth of photovoltaic installed capacity in the future, the demand side of quartz products for photovoltaic will also increase in the same proportion. Due to the limited overall production capacity of the company, the operating income of quartz products used in the photovoltaic Cecep Solar Energy Co.Ltd(000591) industry of the company was relatively low in 2021, reaching 393794 million yuan, accounting for 23.74% of the annual operating income, and the gross profit margin decreased to 11.05%.
Investment suggestion: the company focuses on the R & D, production and sales of quartz products, has been deeply cultivated in the fields of semiconductor and photovoltaic for many years, and occupies a dominant position in China's quartz products industry. In 2022, the company will actively and steadily prepare for the "industrialization project of high-end quartz products". At present, the company is constantly adjusting its industrial structure, promoting industrial transformation and upgrading, and gradually realizing the transformation from low-end products to high-end products. We estimate that the company's revenue from 2022 to 2024 will be 187 million yuan, 251 million yuan and 351 million yuan respectively, and the net profit will be 48 million yuan, 68 million yuan and 91 million yuan respectively. Considering that the company's production capacity is expected to be released at the beginning of 2023 and has significant advantages in customer structure, we give the company pe27x in 2023, corresponding to the target price of 24.57, and maintain the Buy-A rating.
Risk tip: increased competition in the industry, risk of economic downturn, and risk of chip demand falling short of expectations
