The stock market's decline in the first week of this year exceeded many people's expectations.
Niu Yanjun studied it and found that the funds of " foresight " have been flowing out of the market since mid December last year.
More importantly, the trend of the market is very important, which will further affect the future capital flow.
Bull's eye Junlai's resumption of the market from 2016 to 2018 may help to understand the changes in the trend.
At position a in the figure above, the market fell below the trend line, then went all the way down to the annual line to get support, and then there was another wave of market.
At position B in the figure, the market fell below the trend line and annual line, so the rising market ended.
From the current indexes, there is also annual line support under the Shanghai index, which may be related to the recent stable performance of traditional big blue chips in Shanghai stock market.
Niu Yanjun turned it over. Banking, insurance and "two barrels of oil" were strong this week, which is why the Shanghai index is still above the annual line. The following is the performance of bank stocks this week.
Both the Shenzhen Component Index and the gem index have fallen below the annual line, and the gem index has fallen below the trend line at the same time.
The Kechuang 50 index also fell below the trend line and annual line.
at present, Kechuang 50 has fallen below the annual line by 7.3%, and the gem index has fallen below the annual line by 3%, barely meeting the standard of effectively falling below the annual line. The Shenzhen composite index fell below the annual line by 1.8%. Thus, the main board index is relatively stable.
Some bad things can be seen from the capital line.
Since the middle of December last year, some funds have flowed out of the market. At present, there is a huge holding plate above. The capital line has been horizontal for several months. We need to pay close attention to changing the direction.
Judging from the news over the weekend, the science and innovation board has a positive effect.
The provisions on the pilot of stock market making trading business on the science and Innovation Board of securities companies (Draft for comments) was issued, and the science and Innovation Board plans to introduce the market maker mechanism.
This is conducive to improving the market liquidity of the science and innovation board, so it is a good thing.
If the sci-tech innovation board rises tomorrow, can it drive the gem to rebound? Tomorrow is worth noting.
Niu Yanjun thinks that to study and judge the market, we should first look at the trend, and then look at the changes of the asset line. At present, the main board market is still stable, while the Kechuang 50 and gem indexes are much weaker.
In addition, from the periphery, the Fed's expectation of raising interest rates this year is heating up, and the table contraction is being discussed, and the peripheral economy is not very stable.
From the perspective of a shares, a comprehensive registration system will be implemented in the future, so we need to consider the balance between stock supply and capital.
It was listed on China Telecom Corporation Limited(601728) on August 20 last year and China Mobile on January 5 this year. At that time, it may have some emotional impact on the short-term market. What other large cap stocks will be listed in the future.
according to the communication between Niu Yanjun and experts at the weekend, some experts think that this year's market is not easy to operate and difficult.
for the short-term market, the biggest suspense is whether it can stabilize next week.
From the A50 Index, it rebounded about 0.8% on Friday.
Behind the stability of the main board index, the differentiation between plates is also large, which also increases the difficulty of operation.
This week, overvalued growth stocks were sold by funds, and undervalued bancassurance was favored. How high can bancassurance go?
generally speaking, at present, because the main board index is still stable, there is still some hope in the market, but the internal differentiation of the market is quite large, and it is necessary to conduct in-depth research and judgment on individual stocks. When confused about the market, reducing the position is a way to control the risk.
(source: Daily Economic News)
