Smart funds from a substantial sale to the beginning of a large-scale purchase of some leading enterprises.
Last year, everyone shouted at the real estate chain, which suddenly burst into flames after entering the new year. In just four trading days, under the background of continuous correction of the general trend, the real estate chain rose sharply against the market, the real estate index and household appliance index both rose by more than 4%, and the building decoration, building materials and other sectors also rose by more than 2%. It is believed that after the central economic work conference set the tone for steady growth at the end of last year, the theme of steady growth led by the real estate chain began to work.
Securities Times · databao combed the recent institutional views and found that the theme of steady growth has also become the focus of institutions. Some head securities companies believe that the theme stocks of steady growth are expected to evolve into a medium-term rebound. Accordingly, securities times · databao sorted out the list of top 50 themes of stable growth for readers.
the theme of steady growth has become the focus of institutional attention
The theme of steady growth is a new term that has suddenly exploded in the past one or two months. The central economic work conference was held in Beijing in December 2021, which transmitted the signal of steady growth for the first time. Well known economists commented that the central economic work conference sent a clear signal that a new round of steady growth is coming.
Since then, the work meetings of ministries and commissions such as the national development and Reform Commission have also been implemented one after another. From the signals released by the six ministries and commissions, Changjiang Securities Company Limited(000783) believes that the connotation of "stability" is more diversified. Steady growth first means "steady" growth, which emphasizes maintaining a positive trend rather than specific growth; The second is "steady and cautious" growth, emphasizing the long-term constraints of short-term goals.
Since then, steady growth has become a hot word in the Research Report of securities companies, including Citic Securities Company Limited(600030) , China International Capital Corporation Limited(601995) , Ping An Securities and many other top securities companies. Recently, some research reports of steady growth have become key words. Whether the steady growth theme market can continue and how long it will last may be the focus of many investors at present. Minsheng securities suggests to attach great importance to the infrastructure chain, frankly optimistic about the infrastructure chain in the first quarter, and believes that the market of consumer building materials and new materials is expected to run through the whole year.
Looking back over the past decade, China has roughly experienced five rounds of steady growth in 2009, 2012-2013, 2015-2016, 2019 and 2020. Two large-scale steady growth, corresponding to two bull markets, respectively in 2009 and 2015-2016; The most recent one was the steady growth caused by the covid-19 epidemic, with a substantial increase in real estate sales. Corresponding to China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) , Anhui Conch Cement Company Limited(600585) and other stocks, there was a range of 30% to 50%. The remaining two rounds of steady growth, the relative strength is not very strong, and the stock market performance is difficult to say strong.
Some people believe that the current economic downturn is significantly greater than the past two small steady growth periods, which means that the steady growth must be greater than 2019 and 2012 in order to stabilize the economic growth in a reasonable range. from this point of view, the stable growth market is more likely to continue.
stable growth theme top 50 released
Under the background that the steady growth market is expected to further develop in depth, databao sorted out the top 50 list of steady growth themes for readers. As mentioned earlier, steady growth themes mainly include real estate development, household appliances, building decoration, building materials, steel, mechanical equipment (engineering machinery), household goods sub industry of light industry manufacturing industry, etc. . Filter criteria include:
1. In 2021 and 2022, the institutions unanimously predicted a positive growth in net profit;
2. The number of rating agencies is more than 5, highlighting the value and recognition of the seller's organization;
After the above screening, a total of more than 200 shares were selected. In order to balance various industries in the list and the industry attributes of individual stocks, databao screened out the leading varieties of various industries. The detailed list of individual stocks is shown in the table below. In terms of industry, the building materials sector contributed the most stocks, reaching 12 stocks, mainly because the building materials industry has certain consumption attributes, and some stocks have certain scarcity; Most of the other six industries contributed 6 to 8 shares. There are 19 stocks with a market value of 100 billion yuan in the list, and the stocks with the lowest market value also exceed 10 billion yuan, highlighting the leading position of the industry.
leading valuation as low as "floor price"
Over the past year, the theme of steady growth has not performed well. Even after a period of rebound, the valuation of many leading stocks is still as low as the floor price. For example, China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) in the real estate industry, the latest rolling P / E ratio is 6.64 times, which is 5.52% of the historical quantile, which means that only 5.52% of the trading day valuation of the stock in history is lower than this level.
In addition to the leading valuations of the real estate industry generally at a historic low level, most of the leading valuations of the other six industries are also at a low level. For example, Baoshan Iron & Steel Co.Ltd(600019) in the iron and steel industry, the rolling P / E ratio is 6.19% of the historical quantile. In addition, Zoomlion Heavy Industry Science And Technology Co.Ltd(000157) in the construction machinery industry, Gree Electric Appliances Inc.Of Zhuhai(000651) in the home appliance industry, Anhui Conch Cement Company Limited(600585) in the building materials industry, and China State Construction Engineering Corporation Limited(601668) in the construction industry all have a lower P / E ratio in the historical quantile.
the wind direction of funds moving northward has changed greatly and the positions have been increased greatly
The attitude of going north capital, known as smart capital, has suddenly changed, and it seems to smell a different smell. Data treasure statistics show that in 2021, the individual stocks on the list only obtained the capital to go north to increase their holdings of less than 33 million shares, and they have increased their holdings of 363 million shares in four trading days this year.
The reversal of some leading varieties is more severe. For example, China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) , BEIXIANG capital reduced its holdings of nearly 200 million shares in 2021 and increased its holdings of more than 40 million shares in four trading days this year; Baoshan Iron & Steel Co.Ltd(600019) . In 2021, the capital going north reduced its holdings of nearly 100 million shares and increased its holdings of nearly 50 million shares this year; Sany Heavy Industry Co.Ltd(600031) was reduced by more than 260 million shares in 2021 and increased by more than 51 million shares this year. According to the rough calculation of the average transaction price since January, 13 stocks were increased by more than 100 million yuan, and Sany Heavy Industry Co.Ltd(600031) , China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) , Power Construction Corporation Of China Ltd(Powerchina Ltd)(601669) , Baoshan Iron & Steel Co.Ltd(600019) and other stocks were increased by more than 300 million yuan.
It is worth mentioning that stocks with high net profit growth in 2022 and 2023 are scarce in the list. Only 13 institutions unanimously predict that the net profit growth rate is more than 20%, and the net profit growth rate of 5 stocks is more than 30%, respectively Ecovacs Robotics Co.Ltd(603486) , Monalisa Group Co.Ltd(002918) , Keshun Waterproof Technologies Co.Ltd(300737) , Beijing Oriental Yuhong Waterproof Technology Co.Ltd(002271) , Skshu Paint Co.Ltd(603737) .
(source: Data treasure)
