on January 8, Maotai officially released accurate information. The retail guide price of 53% vol 500ml Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) wine (treasure) is 4599 yuan / bottle.
The reporter noted that recently, Maotai has released a number of new products, and the market prices of these products have risen. However, in the stock market, Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) has been voted “no” by shareholders, and has fallen by more than 9% in the past seven trading days.
the goods have not arrived, and the price has been fried
This new Maotai product was officially launched on December 29, 2021. Maotai officials positioned it as “the first high-end new product released in the new era of high quality and strong industry”.
Moutai said that this product was designed by Wang Gang, chief Moutai blending master, and accumulated more than 1000 base wine essence. This is the sediment of several generations of craftsmen. Each base liquor sample used to blend Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) liquor (treasures) is a precious old liquor accumulated in the form of Maotai special “Lianguo soup” and “jiugou liquor”. After more than a thousand times of combination addition and comparison attempts, the best proportion and dosage of Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) wine (treasure) was found. Ensure that the style characteristics of each base wine can be fully expressed and integrated to achieve balance. It is perfect in the typical style characteristics of Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) wine of “elegance”, “fineness”, “thickness” and “length”, and the old and ripe aroma is perfectly integrated with the aroma of fruit, nuts, flowers and qu.
the wine continues the main tone of the packaging style of the 1986 edition of “treasures”. The color matching is mainly composed of four colors: crimson, red, brown and gold. Crimson represents fermented grains, red represents sorghum and purplish red mud, brown represents the special “China” pit bar and wine jar, gold represents wheat, and the packaging materials have been comprehensively upgraded.
At present, there are many other high-end liquor brands in Maotai except Feitian, such as concierge liquor, treasure series liquor, high-quality Maotai liquor, Centennial Gold Award aging, etc.
At present, a series of rare wines have been formed, including “1704”, square printing treasures, Qu printing treasures, large, medium and small wooden treasures, purple sand treasures, etc. The new product is a supplement to the existing series.
After the release of Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) wine (treasure), there are different opinions on the price of the wine. According to Maotai liquor dealers, Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) liquor (treasures) dealers charge 4299 yuan / bottle. The market price of Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) wine (treasures) has risen to between 6500 yuan / bottle and 7000 yuan / bottle because the new product has just been released and there is little volume in the market.
In addition, it is reported that on January 5 this year, Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) released five Chinese Zodiac wines in the year of the tiger.
According to the information released on the official website, the market guide price of 53 degree 500ml Maotai lunar new year tiger wine is 2499 yuan / bottle, 53 degree 375ml x2 Maotai lunar new year tiger wine is 3599 yuan, 53 degree 500ml Maotai Prince wine lunar new year tiger wine is 988 yuan / bottle, 53 degree 2.5L Guizhou Daqu lunar new year tiger wine is 2888 yuan / bottle, and 53 degree 500ml Lai Mao lunar new year tiger wine is 988 yuan / bottle.
among them, 53 degree 500ml Maotai Lunar New Year of the tiger liquor is the most concerned.
According to media reports, although many dealers have not received “tiger grass”, their market pre price has been hyped by dealers. Among them, the pre selling price of 53 degree 500ml Maotai Lunar New Year of the tiger liquor in the dealer’s market has reached 5200 yuan – 5800 yuan / bottle.
In fact, in the past year, the terminal prices of other Maotai Zodiac liquor have also been rising.
According to the statistics of “Maofen Lu Zhishen”, a self-Media that has long paid attention to the price of Maotai liquor, since the beginning of last year, the selling price of Maotai liquor in the year of the sheep has increased by 8800 yuan. At present, the selling price of a single bottle is 30500 yuan. Followed by the year of the horse Zodiac Maotai, the price of a single bottle was 19800 yuan, up 7300 yuan. In addition, the single bottle price of lunar new year wine such as the year of the rat, the year of the pig and the year of the dog has increased by 800-1200 yuan this year.
the stock price has fallen by more than 9% in the past seven days
After the launch of many new products in Maotai, the capital market cast a “negative vote”. At the close on December 29, Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) shares fell 4.54% and the whole sector fell 5.1%. Since then, it has fallen below the 2000 yuan / share mark for several consecutive days. As of the closing on January 7, Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) fell 2.03% to 1942.00 yuan. The share price is close to the low point in recent January, and has fallen 9.18% in seven trading days since December 29. Within nine trading days, the market value evaporated more than 300 billion.
Why doesn’t the market buy it?
Some analysts believe that the reason is the release of new products, the change of Maotai products and price strategy, and the failure to adjust the price of goods preparation and payment for the Spring Festival next year, which leads to the decline of the rising price expectation in the market.
Choosing to launch new products at the end of 2021 also implies the price policy of Maotai products next year and even in the future.
After the price increases of Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) and Luzhou Laojiao Co.Ltd(000568) , the market has not seen any price increase in Maotai. It has been four years since Maotai last raised its price in early 2018 to early next year, and the price difference in retail price guidance is still huge.
In addition, some analysts said that the weak performance of Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) in the past two days has something to do with the “downward adjustment” of Citic Securities Company Limited(600030) . Before the opening on January 6, Citic Securities Company Limited(600030) released a research report that it lowered the forecast of net profit growth in Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) 2021 to 11.4%, and the original forecast growth rate was 13%. It is estimated that the earnings per share from 2021 to 2023 will be 41.42 yuan, 45.95 yuan and 50.87 yuan respectively, compared with 41.92 yuan, 46.56 yuan and 51.87 yuan originally predicted.
nevertheless, the data show that 39 institutions recently rated Maotai as “buy” and 10 as “overweight”, with a consistent target price of 2351.84 yuan.
On January 4, Kaiyuan securities released a research report, which pointed out that Maotai’s market-oriented reform continued to create good conditions for channel profit recovery. Since 2018, due to the rapid rise in the price of Feitian products, the company has faced great resistance to direct price increase. In the third quarter of 2021, taking the opportunity of the new chairman’s appointment, the company’s market response action was significantly accelerated: the dealers were allocated unplanned increment in November, the unpacking policy was cancelled in December, the price was effectively controlled, and the conditions for the company to gradually recover channel profits were improving day by day.
On January 1, Maotai disclosed its production and operation in 2021: after preliminary accounting, Maotai produced about 56500 tons of base liquor and about 28200 tons of series base liquor in 2021; It is expected to achieve a total operating revenue of about 109 billion yuan (including about 93.2 billion yuan for Maotai liquor and about 12.6 billion yuan for series liquor), an increase of about 11.2% year-on-year; The net profit attributable to the shareholders of the listed company is expected to be about 52 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of about 11.3%.
For the above operating data, The Pacific Securities Co.Ltd(601099) securities commented that the total operating revenue in 2021 increased by 11.2% year-on-year, exceeding the target set at the beginning of the year by 10.5%.
China Industrial Securities Co.Ltd(601377) believes that Maotai’s new management continues to release polar signals after taking office. Since October 2021, Maotai has cancelled the unpacking policy of zodiac, high-quality products and flying Maotai (6 bottles and 1 box), increased the supply of 1 * 12 specifications, met the demand of 1 * 6 full boxes, and launched new “treasures”. In 2022, under the established goal of sales reform, the company will make up for ultra-high-end products and comb down a series of wine channels, and the company’s operating efficiency will also be significantly improved.
4599 yuan / bottle! The market guide price of treasure Maotai determines that “tiger Mao” has soared before shipment. Dealers raise the price by 130% for pre-sale? Institutions are optimistic about Maotai’s long-term stock price
(source: e company)
