The latest strategic views of the top ten securities companies are fresh, as follows:
Citic Securities Company Limited(600030) : disintegration and reproduction of steady growth are the main line
The sharp position adjustment of institutions at the beginning of the year accelerated the “high cut low”, and the High-level Track collapsed and reappeared. The stable growth is the main line for the first quarter at least. The market consensus on low-level blue chips will be strengthened, the starting point of the market will be delayed in the first half of the year, and the short-term adjustment will bring a better allocation time point. On the one hand, the pre disclosure of the annual report is gradual, the performance of the high track is difficult to exceed expectations, the performance of the low plate is difficult to be lower than expectations, and the configuration cost performance changes one after another. The substantial position adjustment effect of the organization at the beginning of the year accelerated the “high cut low”, and the sudden collapse and reappearance of the high track is the main reason for the market adjustment in the beginning of the year. On the other hand, infrastructure first and real estate later, the steady growth policy in the first quarter is expected to move from relay to joint force, and the relevant main lines have strong sustainability. It is expected that the economic data disclosure in the fourth quarter of 2021 will confirm the bottom recovery trend of the economy, and there is sufficient guarantee for stabilizing the economy and the market; In addition, the impact of peripheral liquidity expectations on the market is gradually weakening. The starting point of the market in the first half of the year will be delayed. The first quarter is still the best participation window for the blue chip market in the whole year. The short-term adjustment will bring a better allocation time point. It is suggested to continue to focus on the “three low positions”.
In terms of industry configuration, continue to recommend “three low levels”, including: varieties whose fundamentals are still expected to be low, and focus on midstream manufacturing suppressed by cost problems in the early stage, such as vehicle, lithium battery cell, photovoltaic equipment, etc; In addition, some of the consumer industries represented by Baijiu in the fourth quarter of 2021 have already fulfilled the larger valuation restoration. It is suggested that the basic expectations in the first quarter of this year are still at a low level of tax exemption and entertainment consumption. For the varieties whose valuation is still relatively low, it is recommended to pay attention to the high-quality developers, building materials and home furnishing enterprises after the expected mitigation of real estate credit risk, the Internet leaders of Hong Kong stocks after the impact of medium concept stocks, and the fine chemical enterprises with the ability to develop new businesses such as new materials; High boom varieties with relatively low stock price after adjustment, such as semiconductor equipment driven by localization logic, special chip devices and military industry.
Huaan Securities Co.Ltd(600909) : there is no need to worry about disturbance. Growth is worth adhering to
Benign adjustment at the beginning of the year, the restless market in spring is in the process, and the growth allocation is still positive. ① Under the tone of cross cycle adjustment in the first quarter, monetary policy will still release positive signals, the reduction of reserve requirements and interest rates is still expected, and the marginal easing of liquidity will support the growth valuation. ② According to the three-stage deduction of “valuation → performance → valuation” of the growth market, it is currently experiencing a transition period from performance to valuation driven. The adjustment of the growth sector is more benign, and the adjustment time is expected to be between 1-1.5 months.
Therefore, spring agitation continues to follow four main lines and is configured around the growth main line. Main line 1: continue to be optimistic about the growth direction, including the upstream of “double carbon” green power, scenery hydrogen storage and new energy, the middle and upper reaches of semiconductors with improved prosperity, military industry, and the computer sector with style diffusion and easily driven by emotion. Main line 2: building materials, real estate and its upstream and downstream under steady growth. The main force of short-term steady growth is still infrastructure and real estate. The real estate regulation policy has been marginal relaxed, and the better repair of investment and sales than pessimistic expectations is worthy of attention. Main line 3: brokerage plate of restless wind vane in spring. Main line 4: follow the rising consumer sector and look for opportunities along the main line of price rise. In terms of theme, digital currency and artificial intelligence are the theme investment opportunities. Continue to focus on the accelerated landing of technology and the digital currency catalyzed by the Winter Olympic Games; And artificial intelligence theme investment opportunities that bring upstream and downstream linkage opportunities such as chips, computers and cloud computing.
China International Capital Corporation Limited(601995) : the market does not need to be overly pessimistic. Steady growth is still the main line in the near future
Looking forward to the future, we believe that the market does not need to be overly pessimistic. Combined with the recent introduction of details of local steady growth policies, we believe that after some forward-looking economic indicators gradually improve, the market may reverse the downturn and gradually turn positive, focusing on bank credit, social financing, project approval of the national development and Reform Commission, increased financial support, housing related policies, etc. In the medium term, Chinese and foreign growth is opposite to the policy cycle, China is relatively favorable, liquidity and valuation are supported, and structural trends bring investment opportunities. We believe that A-Shares will eventually be “dangerous”. In terms of style, we believe that “stable growth” will still be the main line of the market in the near future, while the manufacturing growth style may continue to be suppressed, and we still need to wait for the opportunity.
Suggestions on industry configuration: continue to take “steady growth” as the main line, and manufacturing growth is waiting for a turnaround. 1) Areas potentially supported by marginal change or development of policies, including industrial chains related to stable demand for infrastructure and real estate (construction, building materials, household appliances, home furnishings, real estate, etc.), potential consumption support areas, securities companies, etc; 2) For the middle and lower reaches consumption that has been adjusted this year, the valuation is not high, and the medium – and long-term prospects are still clear, choose stocks from the bottom up, including household appliances, light industrial homes, automobiles and parts, Internet and media, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery, food and beverage, medicine, aviation and hotels; 3) The short-term share price of the manufacturing growth sector with a large increase last year may be restrained, including new energy vehicles, new energy and technology hardware semiconductors. The potential turnaround depends on the change of market style again. The potential time point may be at the end of the first quarter and the beginning of the second quarter. The above three directions may overlap slightly, of which the first direction is more phased and needs to pay more attention to the policy rhythm.
Guotai Junan Securities Co.Ltd(601211) : with steady growth as the anchor, the fundamentals are expected to improve with valuation repair
Since the beginning of 2022, the A-share market has experienced certain adjustments. The gem index and the CSI 1000 index have decreased by 6.80% and 4.09% respectively. Behind the analysis of market fluctuations, the core lies in the valuation pressure caused by the expected change of liquidity at the denominator. On the one hand, what we see is that the demand for steady growth has been further established, and the expectation of economic growth has changed from the original fear of stalling to the expectation of stabilizing; On the other hand, what we see is the consensus judgment of the market on the downward earnings of 22q2. Therefore, the “poor” of molecular end profit is not the leading factor in the current market. In contrast, at the denominator end, China’s loose expectations tend to be consistent and the marginal increment is less. Superimposed on overseas monetary policies, the adjustment of market liquidity expectations was accelerated, and the investment focus was switched from high growth to undervalued value. On the whole, with steady growth as the anchor, with the expected improvement of fundamentals, the valuation repair channel is opening.
Industry configuration: focus on undervalued value and grasp consumption and infrastructure repair. With the market driving force changing from molecular end to denominator, investment focus is switched from high growth to underestimation. According to the order of steady growth, the revised scope of pessimistic expectations is superimposed. 1) consumption: accelerate the expected bottom, recommend the direction of pig, household appliances, furniture, social service / tourism, Baijiu and so on with supporting performance and negative expectation. 2) Infrastructure: improve infrastructure investment and help “revitalize infrastructure” exceed expectations in the future: building materials, construction, power operation, etc; 3) Finance: securities companies and banks; 4) Consumer electronics.
Huaxi Securities Co.Ltd(002926) : it is still in this round of “late spring cold” cycle and adheres to the main line of steady growth
Since the beginning of the year, under the disturbance of the Fed’s monetary policy and the valuation adjustment of the high boom track, the A-share market has welcomed style rebalancing.
Considering the current loose liquidity in China, the gradual introduction of counter cyclical policies and the reasonable overall valuation of the market, we are still optimistic about A-Shares in the medium and long term. We believe that the signal of the end of this round of A-share “spring cold” cycle: China’s monetary policy has changed from “steady and neutral” to loose again, and China’s monetary and fiscal forces have once again contributed to “stable growth”.
In terms of configuration, it is suggested to take “steady growth” as the main line: first, it is related to traditional infrastructure, such as building materials and buildings; Second, the real estate and its upstream and downstream industrial chain benefiting from the marginal improvement of real estate policy. Focus on theme: meta universe, traditional Chinese medicine, etc.
China Industrial Securities Co.Ltd(601377) : continue to be optimistic about the undervalued repair market, and the hard technology sector has been fully adjusted
Continue to be optimistic about the undervalued repair market. For the “new half army” and other hard science and technology plates, combined with the five crowding index and previous callbacks, the current adjustment space has been relatively adequate. In the short term, on the one hand, grasp the phased opportunities for the repair of undervalued real estate chain, infrastructure chain and securities companies, on the other hand, lay out “small high-tech” with long fighting short and bargain hunting.
Focus on three directions: 1) real estate chain and infrastructure chain: on the one hand, benefiting from marginal changes in policies, “steady growth” is expected to rise. The economic work conference called for “moderately advanced infrastructure investment” and “promoting the construction of indemnificatory housing”. On the other hand, the subsequent monetary and credit is expected to be further relaxed, which will also bring about the valuation repair of infrastructure, real estate and other sectors. 2) Securities companies: the economic work conference proposed to “fully implement the stock issuance registration system”, which is expected to support the long-term performance of securities companies. At the same time, with the continuous deduction of the cross-year market, as a plate with strong linkage with the market, securities companies β Attributes will also be fully interpreted and released. 3) The scientific and technological growth represented by “small high tech” is arranged on a bargain hunting basis. Recently, the scientific and technological growth plate has been adjusted, which is mainly disturbed by factors such as position, mood and style. However, in combination with the five congestion indicators and previous callbacks, the space for subsequent adjustment may be limited. In the medium and long term, scientific and technological growth is still the inevitable choice for high-quality development and bigger cake under common prosperity. It is also one of the most distinctive themes of the times to meet the urgent need to improve scientific and technological competitiveness and get rid of the “neck stuck” dilemma under the background of the game between China and the United States.
Minsheng Securities: the style of value outperforming growth is expected to continue, waiting for the new consensus of the market
Behind the market adjustment is the plate with high growth rate and independent of the assumption of economic aggregate recovery. Under the lack of valuation protection, the expected rate of return of “good can be better” may not be rich. Institutions do not always choose to pursue assets with high growth rate. In the environment where the prosperity begins to spread, high growth rate is not the first demand of institutional investors, and more cost-effective assets are the allocation direction. Recently, the value style of China and the United States stock markets has begun to significantly outperform the growth style. In the funds going north, even the allocated funds have reversed. We think this change will continue in the future.
The probability of stabilization and recovery of future demand is increasing. In the long-term dimension, the value outperforms the growth with directional certainty. However, it is still in the “expected deduction” stage, and it will take time for the cohesion of new market consensus. Growth investors can wait for a good switching opportunity, and value investors should also grasp the most certain path in demand recovery. At present, in terms of reducing the cost of energy and carbon neutralization, China obviously has stronger execution and determination than overseas, which will benefit the varieties whose cost depends on China’s energy and environment (such as electrolytic aluminum and coal chemical industry). The constraint of inflation in the recovery of demand should not be forgotten, which is an opportunity and greater challenge in the future. We recommend nonferrous metals (aluminum, copper), crude oil chain (oil service, oil transportation), real estate, banking, steel, coal and construction. The theme recommends Rural Revitalization (county consumption, agrochemical industry and seed industry).
Western Securities Co.Ltd(002673) : the low point expected by the market in the first half of the year is that steady growth is still the main line
“Winter agitation” overdraw market enthusiasm and returned to the “calm period” at the beginning of the year. Standing at the current time point, we believe that the low point of macro expectation for the first half of the year may have appeared. Steady growth is still the main line at present. The growth has reached the left layout period. The main line of the whole year is still the price rise of consumer goods.
From an annual perspective, we still suggest that investors continue to pay attention to the essential consumer goods with strong price transmission capacity represented by aquaculture, planting, food processing industry, textile and clothing, traditional Chinese medicine and rubber products, which is also the most deterministic investment main line in 2022.
Cinda Securities: the rebound may have to wait for the repair probability of financial stock valuation after the Spring Festival
There are three main driving forces supporting this cross-year Market: Valuation rebound + steady growth + seasonal recovery of resident funds. The first driving force is the “valuation rebound”. Since March, the adjustment time and amplitude of some sectors are large. There is a need for valuation repair, and this force has been fully realized. The second driving force is steady growth. Since the central economic work conference, it has had an impact on the plate and style of the market, and the industries related to steady growth continue to strengthen. This force continues and may continue until the credit data exceed expectations. The third driving force is the expected incremental funds at the beginning of the year, which has basically failed from the fund issuance after new year’s day. To recover, it is estimated to wait after the Spring Festival, so the rebound of the index is also estimated to wait after the Spring Festival.
Home furnishing boards have been mostly valued by the logic of valuation recovery in the last 1 quarters. In 2021, weaker consumers (Baijiu, Chinese Medicine), media (Yuan Yuzhou), real estate infrastructure chains (real estate, home, building materials, construction, household appliances) and others have taken the lead, though the performance of these sectors has not changed much since the high frequency data. Relatively speaking, the valuation repair of financial stocks is the weakest. The important reason behind may be that the long-term logic of financial stocks is weak, and there is no logic of supply-demand mismatch in the short term. There are great differences in stock selection methods and consumption, growth and cycle. However, we believe that due to the good matching between the valuation and fundamentals of financial stocks, this bias is likely to be repaired in the next six months. At present, the main lines of our proposed allocation: (1) financial real estate generally can advance, retreat and defend in the middle and later stages of economic downturn, and the strength of steady growth will be gradually strengthened, which can be over allocated for half a year; (2) Food and beverage, home appliances, computers, media and other sectors with poor performance this year are in the process of quarterly rebound; (3) The supply and demand cycle of military industry, hotel, aviation and other industries is independent, and it can be paid attention to all year in 2022.
Zheshang Securities Co.Ltd(601878) : optimizing the position structure is still restless in spring
The trigger factor for adjustment since mid December is not system risk, but structural switching. From another dimension, the rebalancing of Baotuan plate is also the process of improving the micro trading structure. Therefore, we should pay attention to the brewing of new air outlets and optimize our positions.
Looking forward to 2022, we believe that the opportunities in traditional industries are dominated by CPI chain (agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery, mandatory consumption), and the rise is led by science and technology innovation board in emerging industries (semiconductor materials and simulation design, national defense, automotive electronics chain, meta universe chain). At the same time, we should tap the long-term stocks in the stable growth chain (real estate, banking, household appliances and household leaders).
(source: financial Associated Press)
