Main points and conclusions
Macroeconomic outlook
Global macro: the global economy will continue to recover, but the growth rate will decline. At the same time, the inflation level will continue to rise, and the risk of "stagflation" will increase. As major industries maintain relatively loose fiscal and monetary policies, the global economy will continue to recover in 2021 amid the evolving epidemic. With the gradual landing of the epidemic "black swan", it is expected that the global economy will continue to recover in 2022, but the growth center may decline. At the same time, it is difficult to say that the policy tightening will curb the rise of inflation in the short term, and the risk of "stagflation" will continue to increase in the future.
China's macro: dragged down by weak consumption and declining real estate investment, China's economic growth continues to decline. With the gradual implementation of the steady growth policy, it is expected that the economy will hit the bottom and rebound in 2022. In 2021, China's economy continues to recover, but the growth rate slows down significantly and the pressure on steady growth increases. PMI data in December shows that the economy is bottoming out. With the strengthening of steady growth measures in the direction of finance, credit and supervision, it is expected that the economic recovery momentum will continue in 2022, and consumption and infrastructure investment may become the main driving force.
Overseas policy: the global epidemic has been repeated for many times, the Federal Reserve has changed from dove to Eagle, and the monetary policy of many countries has been tightened; The uncertainty of the epidemic situation in 2022 is still strong, but the impact on most central banks to maintain tightening policies is limited. In 2021, the world experienced repeated outbreaks. After the decline in the first half of the year, the confirmed cases rose again and again with the spread of variant viruses. US inflation continues to rise and employment continues to recover, but the long-term impact of the epidemic on the job market is difficult to recover quickly. The Fed's policy has maintained doves for a long time, but it began to accelerate its turn to hawks at the end of November. In addition to the Federal Reserve, other developed economies in the world have also shown signs of accelerating their turn. Developing economies are facing more serious inflationary pressure and enter the tightening cycle early. Looking forward to 2022, the epidemic situation in 2022 is still the greatest uncertainty. The US economy is expected to maintain recovery, but the recovery speed will slow down due to Omicron. The Fed's short-term goal will be to control inflation. For a long time, most central banks in the world have limited ability to maintain easing, and it is expected to maintain tight monetary policy in 2021.
China's policy: the downward pressure on the economy gradually increases in 2021, and the intention to stabilize growth is gradually obvious; It is expected that the steady growth policy will be launched in 2022, dominated by fiscal policy and supported by monetary policy. In the first half of 2021, China's policy focused on risk control. In the second half of 2021, with the increasing downward pressure on the economy, the intention of steady growth was gradually obvious. In 2021, the monetary policy remained stable, flexible and moderate throughout the year. In July, the standard reduction was mainly to replace MLF, and in December, the standard reduction was again, and the one-year LPR went down. The stock growth of social finance scale continued to decline in the first three quarters, bottomed out and rebounded in the fourth quarter, and there is still room for optimization of the credit structure. Liquidity remained loose throughout the year. The downward pressure on the economy in 2022 combined with the strong demand for steady growth in the new year, it is expected that the steady growth policy will be more concentrated in the first half of the year, and the steady growth will still be dominated by fiscal policy. Monetary policy remains stable and flexible, provides support for fiscal policy, and may further reduce reserve requirements or even interest rates. However, inflation is still high and the accelerated shift of the Federal Reserve may have an impact on China's monetary policy.
