View update this week
The Spring Festival is approaching, and the Spring Festival and the new year goods Festival are both preheated. The number of fixed films for the Spring Festival decreased from 12 to 10, and “super family” withdrew from the Spring Festival in 2022 due to post production, resulting in short-term pressure on the cinema and related content companies. However, from the perspective of fixed films and attention, the top three are miracle, the four seas and this killer is not very calm, Guoman’s “bear haunts and returns to the earth” and “pleasant goat and grey wolf’s basket out of the future” also attracted high attention. Looking back at the Spring Festival, the national film box office increased from 3.088 billion yuan in 2016 to 7.823 billion yuan in 2021. In 2020, due to the shutdown of epidemic cinemas, the box office of the Spring Festival in 2021 increased by 33% compared with the same period in 2019; 159 million film viewers (an increase of 21% over the same period in 2019); In terms of the number of films, a total of 10 films (all domestic films) were released in the Spring Festival in 2021, of which “Tang Tan 3” and “Hello Li Huanying” accounted for 80% of the box office. The number of films in the Spring Festival in 2022 was the same as that in 2021. The core was that its content driven box office, and the withdrawal factor did not change the new expectation of the Spring Festival in 2022. The value of cinemas is mainly in social value and commercial value. Users mainly depend on their experience economy. The factors of film viewing demand mainly include film ticket price, alternative commodity price, number of potential audiences, film content supply and marketing strength. The transformation of film technology has always been aimed at improving the audience’s viewing experience. Technological innovation drives the upgrading of cultural and entertainment consumption. The cinema content experience under the combination of virtual and real is also expected to be further reflected in the film viewing during the Spring Festival. The new year’s festival opens. At 19:30 on January 10, Xiaomang New Year’s festival will be broadcast live on Hunan Satellite TV and mango TV. With the theme of “domestic goods better understand China’s year”, Xiaomang New Year’s festival will create a trendy new year’s party with national fashion, youth characteristics and national recognition, and jointly open a new chapter of continuing to move forward to a better life in 2022 with the audience, We are optimistic about content e-commerce from the point of high matching between time cost and demand for goods.
This week focuses on recommending individual stocks and logic
Give the media new consumer industry an overweight rating. In the investment dimension, the Spring Festival file superimposes the new year goods festival to drive the content e-commerce. We can pay attention to the industrial chain in the new media consumption track, the new marketing driven by the content e-commerce plate, the Spring Festival file and the performance of the plate in the first quarter of 2022 are expected to increase by four dimensions year-on-year. The target end can focus on Mango Excellent Media Co.Ltd(300413) , Bluefocus Intelligent Communications Group Co.Ltd(300058) , Shanghai Yaoji Technology Co.Ltd(002605) , Inly Media Co.Ltd(603598) , Beijing Enlight Media Co.Ltd(300251) , Alpha Group(002292) , cat’s eye, Hengdian Entertainment Co.Ltd(603103) , Wanda Film Holding Co.Ltd(002739) , Citic Press Corporation(300788) , Thinkingdom Media Group Ltd(603096) , etc. At the same time, the meta universe sector is still the main investment line, and the business model of digital people and digital collections has been recognized by the market in the continuous investment of enterprises; In addition, metauniverse can explore new business models from hardware to platform to content, from immersive experience to digital identity, and then to the economic system based on the underlying development of blockchain. Recent progress of individual stocks, Mango Excellent Media Co.Ltd(300413) 300413 (the company’s digital collection trading platform is under planning; Xiaomang app annual goods Festival, a trendy domestic content e-commerce platform of mango TV, will be opened in the form of a party, and the content e-commerce will go to the next city); Zhejiang Huace Film And Tv Co.Ltd(300133) 300133 (the main investment and control film “anti corruption storm 5” is expected to contribute to the performance in January 2022); Alpha Group(002292) 002292 (the big film “pleasant goat and grey wolf out of the future” will premiere on February 1); Shanghai Fengyuzhu Culture Technology Co.Ltd(603466) 603466 (new businesses are actively promoted under the steady growth of the main business, star map bits will be invested, and the application scenarios of native digital asset NFT and digital man application will be explored and deepened); Bluefocus Intelligent Communications Group Co.Ltd(300058) 300058 (the digital virtual human “Su Xiaomei” starts the virtual IP service, and in the future Bluefocus Intelligent Communications Group Co.Ltd(300058) will reproduce more virtual people with “cultural symbol” value to promote cultural innovation in a virtual way); Bili Bili 9626 (the live broadcast of Xiaonian year! Is about to start, and the first digital collection is online); Heart company 2400 (at 18:00 on January 15, 2022, taptap annual game award will be officially launched and the award show will be broadcast live); During the Spring Festival in the first quarter of 2022, the short-term impact of film withdrawal will not change the new economic expectation of watching films in the Spring Festival. On January 14, the cinemas and contents of matrix restart can be paid attention to ( Wanda Film Holding Co.Ltd(002739) , Hengdian Entertainment Co.Ltd(603103) , Beijing Enlight Media Co.Ltd(300251) , Alpha Group(002292) ); At the same time, the undervalued section can focus on the public reading Citic Press Corporation(300788) , Thinkingdom Media Group Ltd(603096) .
Risk tips
The risk of industrial policy change, the risk that the performance of the recommended company is less than expected, and the risk of industry competition; The risk of changes in editing and broadcasting policies, the risk that the progress of film and television works is not as expected, the risk that they have not been filed, and the risk that the operation does not meet the expectations; Epidemic fluctuation risk and macroeconomic fluctuation risk.
