On April 13, the main contract of crude oil futures in the previous period closed at 650.5 yuan / ton, up 5.36%, the largest one-day increase of the contract since March 10. In this regard, Li Yunxu, senior analyst of SDIC Anxin futures, told the Securities Daily: “the rise in the price of China’s crude oil futures is mainly affected by the rise in international oil prices.”
As of 6:00 Beijing time on April 13, 2022, the main contract of ice Brent crude oil futures closed at US $104.93/barrel, up 6.55%; As of 5:00 Beijing time on April 13, 2022, the main contract of nymexwti crude oil futures closed at US $100.98/barrel, up 7.10%, which was the first time that the contract closed above US $100 / barrel since April 6. As of 16:00 Beijing time on April 13, the international oil price was still above US $100 / barrel.
With regard to the rise of international oil prices, Li Yunxu said: “although there are recent signs that Russian crude oil exports are blocked, the cautious participation of major traders and banks in Russian oil has not changed. After the digestion of bad reserves, the spot of benchmark oil led the rebound of futures.”
Fu Zezheng, senior researcher of Yuanrong investment stock department, told the Securities Daily: “as the EIA (US Energy Information Administration) lowered its forecast for the growth of crude oil production in 2022 and 2023, it also lowered its forecast for the growth of crude oil demand in 2022. The reduction of crude oil supply side is more deterministic, and under the logic of recovery, crude oil demand does not necessarily decrease, so the international crude oil futures price rose sharply.”
From the perspective of supply and demand fundamentals, Li Yunxu said: “The recent epidemic situation in some parts of China has a marginal impact on the demand for oil products. The price of refined oil in China is weak, the profit of oil refining continues to be under pressure, and the operating rate of Shandong local refinery is relatively low. The number of commercial flights flying around the world has also declined, and the gap with the same period before the epidemic has increased from 12% in early March to about 20% in the previous week. It is also expected to be mainly dragged down by Chinese flights. The demand for overseas aviation coal is expected to be relatively good, but with the impact of sanctions and inflation The pressure is rising, and the economic growth of Europe may face obvious pressure in the later stage. “
On the supply side, Li Yunxu said, “Geopolitical factors still dominate the disturbance of supply expectations. The data show that Russia’s crude oil production in March fell to 11.01 million barrels per day from 11.06 million barrels per day in February, with little overall fluctuation. According to the data of Russia’s comprehensive fuel and energy survey department, from April 1 to 6, Russia’s average daily crude oil production was 10.52 million barrels per day, 4.5% lower than that in March. Overall, the decline in Russia’s oil exports is inevitable, However, the volume reduction in April may be significantly lower than previous market expectations. In the near future, the market will release a total of 240 million barrels of strategic oil reserves. Measured by half a year, the daily supply is as high as 1.5 million barrels, forming a marginal relief for the expectation of short-term supply tension. “
For the future trend of international oil prices, Liu Cunxin, assistant manager of Rongzhi investment fund under private placement paipai.com, told the reporter of Securities Daily: “In terms of supply, geopolitical factors have brought great uncertainty to the global energy supply. At the same time, OPEC + refused to increase production significantly, which has led to the tightening of crude oil supply. In terms of demand, under the influence of the liberalization of epidemic prevention restrictions in Europe and the United States and other countries, the demand for crude oil will gradually rise, and the international crude oil inventory is low and the demand for replenishment is strong. Therefore, the tight situation of crude oil supply and demand is difficult to change in the short term, which has a negative impact on crude oil prices Support, crude oil prices are expected to remain high and volatile. “
Kang Daozhi, chairman of Daozhi investment, told the reporter of Securities Daily: “The geopolitical situation is still uncertain. With the tightening of sanctions against Russia by the United States and Europe, the overall pattern of crude oil supply is tight. If OPEC + insists on not increasing production, the crude oil rate will probably run at a high level and the market will also be in a high state of tension. Once the geopolitical situation worsens, the crude oil price is likely to continue to rise or even break through the recent high.”
Affected by the rise in oil prices, on April 13, Hithink Royalflush Information Network Co.Ltd(300033) oil and gas exploitation and service industry sector rose 1.51%, ranking third in the increase list of Hithink Royalflush Information Network Co.Ltd(300033) industry index, second only to logistics and coal mining and processing sector. In terms of individual stocks, Renzhi shares rose by the limit.
Table: list of individual stocks rising in oil and gas exploitation and service sector on April 13 p align = “center” prepared by Yao Yao
