This week’s market
Shenwan agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery industry (1.56%), ranking of Shenwan industry (8 / 28); Shanghai Stock Index (- 1.65%), CSI 300 (- 2.39%), small and medium-sized 100 (- 4.13%);
Important information
On January 6, the National Bureau of statistics released the data of grain production in 2021. The national grain sown area was 117632000 hectares (176447 mu), a year-on-year increase of 0.7%. The national grain output per unit area was 5805 kg / ha (387 kg / mu), a year-on-year increase of 1.2%. China’s total grain output was 682.85 million tons (1365.7 billion kg), a year-on-year increase of 2.0%.
On January 5, the Ministry of agriculture and rural areas issued the national agricultural mechanization development plan for the 14th five year plan, which made it clear that by 2025, the total power of agricultural machinery in China will be stable at about 1.1 billion kw, the comprehensive mechanization rate of crop cultivation and harvest will reach 75%, and the main grain, cotton, oil and sugar producing counties (cities and districts) will basically realize agricultural mechanization, The comprehensive mechanization rate of crop cultivation and harvest in hilly counties (cities and districts) has reached 55%, and the mechanization rate of facility agriculture, animal husbandry, aquaculture and Shenzhen Agricultural Products Group Co.Ltd(000061) primary processing has reached more than 50%.
On January 5, the Ministry of agriculture and rural areas studied and deployed the key work of the first quarter. We should pay close attention to grain production in spring, further promote the revitalization of the seed industry, make substantive progress in building a commercial seed breeding system, and actively promote the construction of high-standard farmland.
Core view
Breeding industry: in terms of pigs, the main pig breeding enterprises accelerated their marketing in December, the peak season entered the late stage, the local epidemic situation upgraded, the demand slowed down, the high level of pig prices fell back, and the breeding profits returned to the loss range. In terms of quantity, the pig price recovered in November and the column pressure mood increased. In December, the pig market fell from a high level, and breeding enterprises accelerated their marketing in the peak season. The main listed pig enterprises (except New Hope Liuhe Co.Ltd(000876) ) sold a total of 7.4249 million pigs, an increase of 11.8% month on month. In terms of price, according to China pig breeding network, the monthly callback of three yuan outside pigs in December was 9.5%. At the end of the year, the preparation of cured enema entered the late stage, the epidemic situation suppressed some demand, the market supporting policy withdrew, and the marketing of major breeding enterprises accelerated, easing the overall relationship between supply and demand. In terms of listed companies, the average sales prices of major listed pig enterprises in December, except Zhengbang, decreased, and the average monthly sales prices of muyuan and Wenshi decreased by 7.6% and 5.7% respectively. In terms of profits, pig breeding fell down with the rise of prices, and the breeding profits returned to the loss range. As of January 7, the profit of pig self breeding was -115.46 yuan / head, and the capacity of the industry was eliminated or accelerated. We believe that with the end of the peak consumption season and the repeated suppression of some demand by the epidemic, there will be some downward pressure on pig prices in the future. 1) On the supply side, according to the disclosure of the Ministry of agriculture and rural areas, the number of newborn pigs per month in large-scale pig farms since March 2021 is more than 30 million and continues to grow. In November, the number of fertile sows in China was 42.96 million, which decreased month on month for five consecutive months, but the overall number of fertile sows was still higher than the normal number of 41 million. In addition, in November, the national pig feed output was 11.41 million tons, an increase of 4.6% month on month, which reflects that the industry stock is still abundant. Overall, China’s pig production will remain abundant for some time to come; 2) On the demand side, with the passage of time, the production and preparation of bacon and sausage will be gradually completed at the end of the peak consumption season. In addition, considering the impact of the recent epidemic control on the overall consumption, the demand in this round of peak season will be callback after the peak.
We believe that the share price of pig plate will maintain a certain range of box shock. Upward, the core capacity of the industry has not fundamentally changed, and the peak season will usher in a high demand, which does not have the basis for a sharp rebound. Downward, the low pig price in the third quarter and the extreme value of plate breeding loss also mean that the most pessimistic expectation of the plate has been released, and there is also a safety margin for the plate downward. Considering the general trend of large-scale pig breeding and the long-term configuration attribute of mandatory consumption, it is suggested to layout the high-quality targets of the pig sector and seize the opportunity of trading on the left.
For broilers, we believe that the supply and demand fundamentals of yellow feather chicken will promote the market cycle upward. 1) On the supply side, the long-term breeding loss in the early stage has significantly reduced the industry’s production capacity. According to the China Animal Husbandry Association, the stock of parents’ generation of yellow feather broilers in November 21 was 13.4356 million, which has been at a low point in recent four years. We believe that the overall production of yellow feather broilers in 22 years will be at a low level in recent years. 2) On the demand side, with the bottom of the market for live pigs and other animal proteins, the substitution squeeze of demand for yellow feather broilers will gradually ease and the margin will be better. In addition, the consumption of live poultry suppressed by the epidemic has been fully digested in the past two years, with marginal improvement; In the short term, supported by consumption at the end of the year and boosted by long-term economic recovery, the yellow feather broiler plate is expected to usher in a business cycle. Pay attention to the relevant targets of Jiangsu Lihua Animal Husbandry Co.Ltd(300761) , Hunan Xiangjia Animal Husbandry Company Limited(002982) , Wens Foodstuff Group Co.Ltd(300498) and other plates.
Key recommendation: China’s large-scale aquaculture leader [ Muyuan Foods Co.Ltd(002714) ] with obvious cost advantage, and [ Jiangxi Zhengbang Technology Co.Ltd(002157) ] with strong performance elasticity and burden unloading.
Planting industry: the seed industry has ushered in a historic opportunity of “three-phase superposition”. During the policy period, the central government will issue an action plan for the revitalization of the seed industry to promote the development of the seed industry in five aspects: Comprehensively Strengthening the protection and utilization of germplasm resources, vigorously promoting the innovation of the seed industry, supporting the development of advantageous seed enterprises, improving the construction level of seed industry base, and severely cracking down on illegal acts such as deck infringement. During the industrial period, bulk grain prices remained high, farmers\’ willingness to grow grain increased, and corn and rice seed stocks, supply and demand were optimized, promoting the prosperity of the seed industry. The commercialization of transgenic technology is approaching. On November 12, the Ministry of agriculture and rural areas issued the decision of the Ministry of agriculture and rural areas on amending some seed industry regulations (Draft for comments). On December 30, Liu Peilei, director of the safety management office of agricultural genetically modified organisms of the Department of science, technology and education of the Ministry of agriculture and rural areas, said that the industrialization pilot of genetically modified soybean and corn carried out by the Ministry of agriculture and rural areas has achieved remarkable results. Biological breeding continues to make historic progress, and commercialization is gradually approaching.
On November 12, the Ministry of agriculture and rural areas issued the draft for comments on revising some seed industry regulations. It means that the supporting policies for the commercialization of GM are constantly implemented, and the commercialization of GM is gradually approaching. We have observed that the revision of seed industry regulations has several characteristics. First, the seed industry regulations are more systematic and comprehensive. Regulations such as variety approval and business license directly include the relevant contents involved in the commercialization of GM, rather than issuing separate measures; Second, the regulatory authorities are more cautious about the approval and promotion of genetically modified organisms. The Measures stipulate that the approval of genetically modified varieties shall directly apply to the “National Crop Variety Approval Committee”, with a high approval level; Third, the examination and approval efficiency should be improved as much as possible under the prudent requirements. For the approved receptor, “the suitable planting area applied for approval is within the suitable planting area of receptor varieties, the test procedure can be simplified, and only one-year production test is required”.
In the medium and long term, we are firmly optimistic about the prospect of the national seed industry and the improvement of the fundamentals of relevant seed enterprises. Under the banner of seed industry revitalization, the iteration and reconstruction of the industry are constantly implemented from top to bottom, which is highly deterministic. “Iteration” is the iteration of biological breeding technology. The draft of seed industry regulations on November 12 exceeded expectations in many aspects, and will continue to promote commercialization in the future. “Reshaping” is the reshaping of the industry pattern. On November 24, the National Conference on promoting the work of supporting excellence of seed enterprises once again stressed that “we should improve and strengthen a number of seed industry leading enterprises with integrated innovation ability and adapt to market demand, and create the backbone force for the revitalization of seed industry”. Dragon seed enterprises with scientific research advantages will become more and more prominent.
“Top down” is the implementation of policies, systems, supervision and law enforcement under the banner of seed industry revitalization, and the overall industry fundamentals will be better and better. In terms of trading, we believe that we should focus on innovative seed enterprises with genetically modified traits and variety reserves. There is a process of transformation and landing of the fundamentals of the seed industry. The overall trend of the probability is upward fluctuation, two advances and one retreat. It is recommended to absorb on bargain hunting.
Key recommendation: seed industry leader with genetically modified trait reserve [ Yuan Longping High-Tech Agriculture Co.Ltd(000998) ], leading genetically modified technology and multiple businesses [ Beijing Dabeinong Technology Group Co.Ltd(002385) ].
Pet industry: pet industry is a high-quality track that caters to social development and consumption trends. According to the white paper on China’s pet industry, China’s pet industry has a market scale of 100 billion, with a compound annual growth rate of nearly 20%. At present, overseas giants occupy a high share of China’s pet food and medical market segments. We believe that the branding of domestic OEM enterprises will continue to accelerate, and have comparative advantages in understanding and deepening Chinese traditional and modern channels. The pet industry will usher in domestic substitution opportunities, and we will continue to follow up and pay attention.
Key recommendation: China’s pet food industry leader [ Yantai China Pet Foods Co.Ltd(002891) ].
Grain and oil industry: affected by the Shenzhen Agricultural Products Group Co.Ltd(000061) cycle, the disturbance of global supply chain under the epidemic and other factors, the prices of oilseeds such as soybeans have risen, the cost side pressure of grain and oil enterprises has become prominent, and the squeezed profits have declined significantly. We believe that the performance of grain and oil enterprises is expected to recover as the cost side – the pressure in the future Shenzhen Agricultural Products Group Co.Ltd(000061) cycle will improve marginally and the demand side – ushers in the Spring Festival stock season at the beginning of the year. Focus on integrated supply chain management and operation of leading enterprises.
Key recommendation: grain and oil leader [ Yihai Kerry Arawana Holdings Co.Ltd(300999) ] that is expected to develop in the overall kitchen business.
Risk tip: economic recovery is less than expected, epidemic situation, etc
