\u3000\u3000 Ningbo Ronbay New Energy Technology Co.Ltd(688005) (688005)
Key investment points
Event: 1) Ningbo Ronbay New Energy Technology Co.Ltd(688005) signed a long-term supply agreement with Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) . It is estimated that Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) will purchase about 100000 tons of high nickel ternary cathode materials from the company in 2022. From 2023 to the end of 2025, the company will be its first supplier of ternary cathode and purchase no less than a certain proportion of high nickel ternary cathode materials from the company. 2) The two sides carry out technical cooperation on new products, including but not limited to ultra-high nickel cathode materials, spinel nickel manganese materials, lithium rich manganese based materials, as well as supporting materials for solid-state batteries and sodium ion batteries.
High nickel ternary trend, Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) leads the industry to accelerate penetration. The performance of high nickel batteries has been greatly improved and there is much room for cost reduction. The Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) high nickel technology industry is leading. We expect that the output of Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) will be 150-160gwh in 2021, of which the output of high nickel batteries will exceed 40gwh, accounting for nearly 30% of Ningde’s battery output and more than 50% of Sanyuanli. It is mainly supporting high-end models such as overseas car enterprises and new forces. It is estimated that the output of Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) will be 300gwh + in 2022, including nearly 100GWh of high nickel battery, corresponding to the demand of 170000 tons of high nickel cathode + (considering partial loss). From the perspective of the whole industry, China’s output of high nickel cathode exceeded 140000 tons in 2021, and its share in Sanyuan has increased to 40% +. In 2022, with the large-scale production of pure electric platform models and the mass production of 4680 large cylindrical batteries by overseas vehicle enterprises, we expect that the share of high nickel will further increase, and 2022h2 will accelerate significantly.
Deep binding Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) to ensure long-term main supplier status. The company is the main supplier of high nickel cathode in Ningde. We expect to supply 30000 tons + to Ningde in 2021, accounting for 50% – 60%. This time, the company won a large order of 100000 tons from Ningde in 2022, with a double + increase. At the same time, it is agreed that from 2023 to 2025, the company will remain the first supplier of Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) ternary cathode and supply no less than a certain proportion of high nickel ternary cathode, so as to provide strong guarantee for medium and long-term orders and further strengthen the company’s leading position in high nickel. In addition, the company cooperates with Ningde to develop new products such as ultra-high nickel, solid-state battery and sodium ion battery supporting materials, and the new material technology layout is leading.
Orders + production capacity accelerated and supported the rapid growth of the company. In 2022, the company has obtained the supply agreement of 100000 tons of high nickel cathode from Ningde and 30000 tons of Funeng. In addition, the increase of customers such as ski, honeycomb and Yiwei is also obvious. We expect that the company’s shipment is expected to reach 150000 tons in 2022, an increase of 170% at the same time. By the end of 2021, the company’s production capacity will reach 120000 tons, and accelerate the construction of new production capacity in Guizhou, Hubei and South Korea. We expect that the production capacity will exceed 250000 tons by the end of 2022, ranking first in the world.
The proportion of customer structure improvement + integration continued to increase, and the profitability remained high. We expect the company’s non net profit deducted per ton in 2021q4 to be about 1.7-2 yuan / ton, with a ring increase of about 25% (non net profit deducted in Q3 is about 14000 yuan / ton). We expect the non net profit deducted per ton in the whole year to be 15000 yuan / ton, a year-on-year increase of + 63%. We expect that the global sales volume of electric vehicles will increase by about 60% in 2022, the output of China’s leading battery enterprises will double, and the industry’s high outlook will continue. With the increase of the company’s scale + the proportion of integration, excluding the one-time impact of inventory income, we expect that the net profit per ton can be maintained at RMB 13000-15000 / ton in 2022.
Profit forecast and investment rating: considering the continuous prosperity of the downstream and the strengthening of the company’s leading position in high nickel, we maintain the expected net profit attributable to the parent company of RMB 917 / 2013 / 2886 million from 2021 to 2023, an increase of 330% / 120% / 43%, corresponding to PE of 57 / 26 / 18x. We give 40xpe in 2022, target price of RMB 179.6, and maintain the “buy” rating.
Risk tip: the sales volume of policies and electric vehicles is lower than expected, and the competition is intensified
