2021 is a well deserved new share issuance year. What about the new share market in 2022? A few figures may illustrate some problems.
First, 33.73%. On the evening of April 12, the issuance results disclosed by Jingwei Hengrun of new shares showed that the final online issuance number was 9.6675 million shares, and the winning investors abandoned 3.26 million shares, accounting for 33.73% of the online issuance number and 10.87% of the total issuance scale. The proportion of abandonment was the highest since the implementation of the credit subscription system of new shares. According to the issue price of up to 121 yuan / share, the amount of abandonment by online investors is up to 395 million yuan.
Moreover, it is 57.7%. According to the latest closing price statistics, among the newly issued and listed stocks in 2022, the number of broken stocks increased to 56, accounting for 57.7% of the number of new shares in the whole year. There are 45 stocks with a breaking range of more than 10%, accounting for 81.82% of all breaking stocks.
Obviously, it has long been history to make new profits without losing. Whether new shares can be bought and how to buy them have become a “technical job”.
unprecedented abandonment
According to the announcement of Jingwei Hengrun, the number of shares that investors give up subscription is underwritten by the joint lead underwriters. The number of shares underwritten by the joint lead underwriters is 3.2609 million shares, and the underwriting amount is about 395 million yuan. The proportion of the number of underwritten shares in the issuance after deducting the final strategic placement is 13.22%, and the proportion of the number of underwritten shares in the total scale of the issuance is 10.87%.
The abandonment ratio of 10.87% is unprecedented, which is far higher than the previous abandonment ratio of 6.5139% of Hemai shares. According to the amount of abandonment, RMB 395 million also reached the third highest level since the implementation of the new share credit subscription system. The top two were RMB 756 million of China Mobile and RMB 653 million of Postal Savings Bank Of China Co.Ltd(601658) .
According to the prospectus, Jingwei Hengrun is a comprehensive electronic system technology service provider. Its main business focuses on electronic systems, focusing on providing electronic products, R & D services and solutions and high-level intelligent driving solutions for customers in the fields of automobile, high-end equipment and unmanned transportation.
In the composition of main business income from January to June 2021, electronic products accounted for 90.65%, of which intelligent driving electronic products accounted for 25.31%, intelligent Internet connected electronic products accounted for 15.92%, and body and comfort domain electronic products accounted for 38.57%.
In 2021, Jingwei Hengrun achieved an operating revenue of 3.262 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 31.61%; The net profit attributable to the owners of the parent company was 146 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 98.37%; The net profit attributable to the owners of the parent company after deducting non profits was 111 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 87.83%.
In addition, Jingwei Hengrun proposed that the company’s inventory balance is high and the scale grows rapidly, so there is a risk of falling price. At the end of each reporting period, the book value of the company’s inventory was 573 million yuan, 675 million yuan, 883 million yuan and 1309 million yuan respectively, accounting for 30.70%, 25.42%, 22.62% and 30.31% of the total assets respectively.
The book value of production cost / contract performance cost in the inventory is 351 million yuan, 448 million yuan, 552 million yuan and 765 million yuan respectively, accounting for 61.20%, 66.44%, 62.55% and 58.45% of the inventory. In the future, if the company’s inventory is overstocked or depreciated due to changes in the market environment, it will have an adverse impact on the company’s operating performance.
In addition, the company’s product production involves the purchase of different types of vehicle specification chips. If the global shortage of vehicle specification chips is further exacerbated, or the production, sales and distribution of raw material suppliers including chips are affected due to distance, epidemic situation, natural disasters, trade friction and other reasons, the company may face the risk of insufficient supply of relevant raw materials or price fluctuations.
new shares are broken more and more fiercely
Why are innovators anxious to abandon the purchase and “run away”. Behind the abandonment, we can see the change and upgrading of the ecology of new shares. Perhaps, in addition to the high issue price, the “caution” of investors is also related to the situation of large-scale breaking of new shares since this year.
Taking March as an example, the average increase of registered new shares in Shanghai and Shenzhen markets on the first day was 35%, down 11% month on month. Among them, the average closing increase of the science and Innovation Board on the first day rose to 14% month on month, and the closing increase of the gem on the first day decreased by 17% to 52% month on month in the same period.
From the first day breaking situation, 29 registered new shares were listed in March, and 12 new shares broke, accounting for 41%. Among them, four new shares on the gem closed and broke on the first day, with an average breaking range of 12%; Eight new shares on the science and Innovation Board broke on the first day, with an average breaking range of 14%.
If the timeline is further extended, a total of 97 A-shares have been listed since the beginning of the year. According to the closing price on the first day of listing, a total of 25 shares broke on the first day of listing, accounting for 25.78%.
18 stocks closed below 10% on the first day of listing, and many stocks fell more than 20% on the first day. Among them, Weijie Chuangxin fell 36.04% on the first day, Puyuan Jingdian fell 34.65%, Aojie technology fell 33.75%, Haichuang pharmaceutical fell 29.87% and Maiwei biology fell 29.59%.
In terms of sectors, as of April 12, 16 stocks whose closing price broke on the first day of listing came from the science and Innovation Board of Shanghai Stock Exchange, accounting for 64%; 9 from the Shenzhen Stock Exchange gem, accounting for 36%.
It is worth noting that according to the latest closing price statistics, among the individual stocks listed in 2022, the number of individual stocks in breaking state increased to 56, accounting for 57.7% of all new stocks in 2022. There are 45 stocks with a breaking range of more than 10%, accounting for 81.82% of all breaking stocks.
Moreover, the average breaking range per share was significantly higher than the issuing price. The average breaking range on the first day was 16.28%, and the average breaking range at yesterday’s closing was 23.91%. 32 stocks broke more than 20%, 19 stocks broke more than 30%, and 9 stocks broke more than 40%. Among them, Aojie technology, which broke on the first day, continued to decline, with a decline of 61.09%; The same was true of Maiwei biology, whose share price fell to 49.22%. Yahong pharmaceutical fell 44.43%, Tianyue advanced fell 42.87% and silinjie fell 41.92%.
In addition to the stocks that broke on the first day and subsequently fell, there are also many stocks with considerable gains on the first day of listing, but now they have broken sharply, with a huge shock compared with the price on the first day.
For example, xidiwei, which is listed at the issue price of 33.57 yuan / share, closed up 31.22% to 44.05 yuan / share on the first day of listing and closed at 20.73 yuan / share today, down 38.24% from the issue price. For another example, AsiaInfo security, which was listed in February, rose 27.53% on the first day of listing, and now breaks 32.06%; Yidong electronics rose 32.5% on the first day, but it has broken 31.67% so far; Aoki shares rose 25.2% on the first day and broke 24.6% yesterday; Kangguan technology rose 27.74% on the first day, but it has broken 22%.
“Style affects the market. At present, market investors focus on the subject matter with undervalued value and anti risk characteristics.” Yan Kaiwen, chief strategic analyst of Huaxin securities, told reporters.
According to the statistics of new share issuance, the current new share issuance mainly focuses on new shares with high issuance price, including some enterprises that have not yet generated profits. According to the reporter’s statistics, the average issuance price of new shares and sub new shares in 2022 is as high as 48.86 yuan / share, exceeding 86.6% of the issuance price of 26.19 yuan / share in 2021.
A number of individual shares are issued at a price of more than 100 yuan. For example, breaking 61.09% of Aojie technology, the issue price is as high as 164.54 yuan / share; The issuing price of Tengyuan cobalt industry is 173.98 yuan / share; The issue price of Sanyuan biology is 109.3 yuan / share.
Yan Kaiwen believes that due to the market-oriented issuance of new shares under the registration system, the issuing price, rhythm and scale of new shares are determined by the market, and the market-oriented issuance is more flexible. However, under the background of more cautious risk appetite, there is a high probability of breaking the issuance of new shares whose P / E ratio is much higher than the average p / E ratio of the industry, and the valuation regression results will be formed.
