Today (April 13), the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets opened low across the board, with a weak shock at the beginning of the session, and then climbed in the shock. The performance of the Shanghai index was stronger than that of the Shenzhen Composite Index and the gem index, and the shock consolidation pattern was at a glance.
From the disk, light index and heavy stocks, industry and concept sector fluctuation, “coal fly dance” splash, the logistics sector continued to rise, Baijiu, agricultural planting, industrial aircraft and other sector up. In Baijiu sector, Gansu Huangtai Wine-Marketing Industry Co.Ltd(000995) , Guizhou Panjiang Refined Coal Co.Ltd(600395) trading, Hai Nan Yedao (Group) Co.Ltd(600238) , Sichuan Swellfun Co.Ltd(600779) , Shanxi Xinghuacun Fen Wine Factory Co.Ltd(600809) and other share prices rose. It is worth mentioning that Gansu Huangtai Wine-Marketing Industry Co.Ltd(000995) has achieved four daily limit in five trading days.
Guosheng Securities pointed out that interference factors such as peripheral conflicts and the Fed’s interest rate hike still exist; The covid-19 epidemic situation in China is still severe, the downward pressure on the economy is still large, and the market is still likely to maintain the trend of shock and grinding bottom for a long time.
At present, under the background of scattered A-share hotspots and intensified sector rotation, possible investment opportunities are hidden. Select some institutional research reports. Let’s see what themes are available for reference.
[theme I] coal
Shenyin Wanguo Securities mentioned that the global coal supply lacks elasticity and the supply and demand pattern is tight. At present, China’s coal production capacity has entered a contraction period, and the withdrawal of coal production capacity under “carbon neutralization” has accelerated. At the same time, the amendment to the new criminal law suppresses the overproduction of coal mines. Even if some nuclear increased production capacity is released, it is still difficult to change the supply tension in the medium-term 3-5 years; On the import side, the overall output of major international coal producers related to China has fallen sharply, and the import can not make up for the gap, and we are facing a shortage of global coal supply. China’s supply gap is expected to expand year by year from 2022 to 2025.
In addition, Cinda Securities said that in the next 2-3 months, as all parts of the South enter the peak summer stage, coal supply will still face great pressure. At this stage, the industry fundamentals, the underlying logic of the policy and the direct effect are favorable for the repair and improvement of the valuation of the sector. Considering the certainty of the high growth of performance in the first half of this year, it is the best stage for bargain hunting to allocate the coal sector.
China Galaxy Securities Co.Ltd(601881) Securities believes that under the premise of steady economic growth, coal consumption is expected to maintain a certain positive growth. During the 14th Five Year Plan period, coal consumption can still maintain positive growth. During the 15th Five Year Plan period, with the development of clean and efficient utilization technology of coal, China’s coal has natural price advantages in traditional fossil energy (coal, oil and natural gas), which is expected to be more applied in coal power and non power fields. On the premise of steady economic growth in China, coal consumption is expected to maintain a certain positive growth. Invest in coal stocks and enjoy the dividends gradually realized by the cost advantage of coal. Policy regulation will cause the repetition of the investment process, but the long-term direction is clear.
Zhongtai Securities Co.Ltd(600918) pointed out that recently, coal enterprises have successively published their annual reports for 2021, and the trend of high score, red and high dividend is obvious. The coal industry is expected to have high medium and long-term prices without large capital expenditure, and the continuous high return to investors will be a major feature of the industry. Overall, the stock capacity is a scarce resource. Coal stocks are generally valued at 4-6 times, and the stability of price and profit expectations is improved. It is suggested to actively layout coal stocks in 2022.
[Topic 2] non ferrous metals
Minsheng Securities believes that gold allocation opportunities are coming. Compared with gold, the value fluctuation of gold stocks is also affected by its fundamentals and other factors, resulting in the volatility of gold index greater than gold price. When analyzing the performance elasticity, we should focus on the proportion of mineral gold output, the comprehensive cost of controlling gold and the planning of increasing production and storage. As the trend fluctuation of the cost of mining gold relative to the gold price is negligible, the rise of gold price can directly lead to the rise of the profit of mineral gold business, and the performance with high proportion of mineral gold has greater flexibility to the performance of gold price.
In addition, Cinda Securities pointed out that under the background of the “double carbon” goal, it attaches importance to the historic investment opportunities of new energy and new materials, and focuses on new energy metals with strong demand and weak supply pattern and new metal materials benefiting from industrial upgrading and domestic substitution. The strong constraints on the supply of metal resources caused by long-term low capital expenditure will support the high operation of non-ferrous metal prices in the next few years. At the same time, with the upward inflation expectation and the continuous easing of China’s monetary policy, non-ferrous metal resource enterprises will usher in investment opportunities for value revaluation.
[Theme 3] steel
Changjiang Securities Company Limited(000783) mentioned that the main line of steady growth remains unchanged, and pay attention to the grasp of the boom window. In the medium term, the main line of steady growth remains unchanged, and the subsequent stronger policy stimulus expectations can still be expected. Although the effects of government investment, tax reduction and fee reduction and real estate easing can not be achieved overnight, they will eventually appear. Therefore, the steel boom is still expected to have a flexible window in the future. It is suggested to pay attention to Baoshan Iron & Steel Co.Ltd(600019) , Hunan Valin Steel Co.Ltd(000932) , Nanjing Iron & Steel Co.Ltd(600282) , Shanxi Taigang Stainless Steel Co.Ltd(000825) , Xinyu Iron & Steel Co.Ltd(600782) , Fangda Special Steel Technology Co.Ltd(600507) and other undervalued or high dividend targets in advance, which is in line with the current defensive market style. In addition, attention should be paid to: first, superalloy Fushun Special Steel Co.Ltd(600399) and so on; Second, the targets in the processing field, such as: 1) aluminum processing Henan Mingtai Al.Industrial Co.Ltd(601677) ; 2) Stainless steel processing Zhejiang Jiuli Hi-Tech Metals Co.Ltd(002318) , Zhejiang Yongjin Metal Technology Co.Ltd(603995) ; Third, the leader in the field of special steel, Citic Pacific Special Steel Group Co.Ltd(000708) etc; Fourth, steel pipes under the municipal pipeline investment line.
Guosheng Securities pointed out that the recovery of manufacturing demand superimposed on the background of carbon peak and carbon neutralization, the profit logic of the steel industry has been reconstructed, and the steel enterprises have further benefited from the cyclical rotation. We are still optimistic about the steel sector for a long time. The national defense, military industry and aerospace industry have a broad domestic substitution space, and products such as superalloy, special stainless steel and ultra-high strength steel occupy an absolute dominant position. It is suggested to focus on the performance of the Chinese newspaper and the leader of special steel in realizing the high prospect of the industry.
Guotai Junan Securities Co.Ltd(601211) Securities believes that at present, the demand for steel at the real estate end and automobile end has been at the bottom to be recovered, and the demand at the infrastructure end is also waiting for accelerated replenishment. At the same time, with the high demand for steel exports, we don’t think it’s necessary to be pessimistic about the demand for steel. With the inflection point of the national epidemic, the demand for steel may show a pulse recovery trend.
[theme four] Baijiu
China International Capital Corporation Limited(601995) mentioned that the marketing reform of Maotai has been continuously promoted recently. We expect that the company will increase its digital marketing and use its own e-commerce platform and other channels to improve the transparency and fairness of wine purchase. At the same time, this is also an important part of the “five in one marketing law” 1 proposed by the company Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) and Laojiao have gradually entered the stage of controlling goods and supporting prices, which reflects the company’s brand confidence, and the company continues to strengthen the accurate delivery of channels and reduce the number of problem dealers and terminals Luzhou Laojiao Co.Ltd(000568) successively raised the dealer payment price and terminal supply price of Guojiao, which are being implemented gradually all over the country.
In addition, it is suggested to pay attention to companies that are less affected by the epidemic and are expected to make a good start in the first quarter, such as Gujing, kouzi, Fenjiu, etc.
Huachang Securities pointed out that Baijiu Q1 index outstanding indicators, channel performance is healthy, strong performance support, although the short-term focus of the market is Moutai’s price decline on the demand boom and channel confidence, but the leading line of value has been displayed, Moutai’s report acceleration, certainty scarcity, product line more abundant, and mutual trust with the capital market to enhance, is the first choice. Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) it is suggested to pay attention to the introduction and implementation of targeted market policies. In the long run, the 1000 yuan price band is still the largest brand, and Laojiao continues to recommend it. In the short term, it is recommended to focus on the verification of individual stocks in the quarterly report, focusing on Fenjiu, Huijiu Gujing, sujiu Yanghe and Jiangsu King’S Luck Brewery Joint-Stock Co.Ltd(603369) . Expanding liquor enterprises are concerned about the willingness to maintain high elasticity in the decline of valuation.
Changjiang Securities Company Limited(000783) said that according to the 2021 Baijiu notice and the 1-2 month business situation in 2022, combined with the data of Liquor Enterprises above Designated Size, the two main trends of liquor industry development, such as head concentration and consumption upgrading, are still continuing. From the historical experience, the long-term development trend of the industry will not be broken by short-term external factors. Therefore, we think that the main line of Baijiu industry will remain unchanged in the future. We will mainly recommend five high-end Shanxi Xinghuacun Fen Wine Factory Co.Ltd(600809) , Jiugui Liquor Co.Ltd(000799) , Jiangsu Yanghe Brewery Joint-Stock Co.Ltd(002304) , Anhui Gujing Distillery Company Limited(000596) , Jiangsu King’S Luck Brewery Joint-Stock Co.Ltd(603369) and so on.
