The performance of securities companies may not be optimistic in the first quarter of this year.
On the evening of April 12, the head brokerage Citic Securities Company Limited(600030) took the lead in disclosing the performance express of the first quarter of 2022. The operating revenue fell by 7.2% and the net profit increased slightly by 1.24%.
does this indicate that the performance of the whole industry in the first quarter is not ideal? Recently, a number of securities analysts believe that the performance of securities companies in the first quarter will decline, and the decline range of net profit is predicted to be in the range of 11% - 21%. Individual analysts are optimistic that the whole industry and the head securities companies have double-digit growth
From the seller's point of view, the brokerage business is expected to decline slightly; Proprietary business is the "winner" of the performance of securities companies, which does not rule out that some securities companies are dragged down by proprietary business; As for investment banks, the beneficiary financing market is active and will still perform well.
industry net profit fell to the consensus of most sellers
According to the performance express of the first quarter of 2022 disclosed by Citic Securities Company Limited(600030) disclosure, the company's operating revenue was 15.216 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 7.2%; The net profit attributable to the shareholders of the parent company was 5.229 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.24%. By the end of the first quarter, Citic Securities Company Limited(600030) assets totaled 1362131 billion yuan, an increase of 6.53% over the end of last year.
Citic Securities Company Limited(600030) said that in the first quarter of 2022, the company implemented the business purpose of national strategy and serving the real economy, grasped the development opportunity of the industry, and maintained stable and healthy operation of all businesses.
The reason why the performance of the securities industry in the first quarter of this year has attracted much market attention is mainly due to the "late spring cold" of A-Shares at the beginning of the year.
more than brokerage analysts expect the performance of the whole industry to decline Guotai Junan Securities Co.Ltd(601211) non bank analysts said that due to the influence of market conditions, the income of different businesses of securities companies has differentiated. It is expected that the revenue of 41 listed securities companies in the first quarter of 2022 will decrease by 10.31% year-on-year, the net profit attributable to the parent company will decrease by 11.77% year-on-year, and the profitability will decline
China International Capital Corporation Limited(601995) financial team estimated that the operating revenue of listed securities companies decreased by 15.4% year-on-year and the net profit decreased by 20.6% year-on-year China Merchants Securities Co.Ltd(600999) non bank analysts predict that the main business revenue of listed securities companies in the first quarter of 2022 will decrease by 13% year-on-year; Net profit decreased by 15% year-on-year.
Some analysts are optimistic Soochow Securities Co.Ltd(601555) non bank analysts predict that the net profit of the whole industry in the first quarter increased steadily by 10.4% year-on-year to 46.6 billion Shenwan Hongyuan Group Co.Ltd(000166) analysts predict that the net profits of the four securities companies Citic Securities Company Limited(600030) , China International Capital Corporation Limited(601995) , Guolian Securities Co.Ltd(601456) , Huatai Securities Co.Ltd(601688) will show positive growth.
brokerage business is light, or declined slightly
Since this year, the performance of the secondary market has been sluggish, investors' risk appetite has been reduced, and there has been a strong wait-and-see mood for funds. Data show that in the first quarter, the Shanghai Composite Index, Shenzhen Composite Index and gem index fell by 10.65%, 18.44% and 19.96% respectively. The turnover increased slightly, with a total turnover of 58.4 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6.73%.
at the same time, due to the impact of market adjustment, the scale of new fund issuance has decreased, and the marketing of securities companies is more difficult. Data show that in the first quarter of this year, the newly issued share of public funds decreased by more than 80% year-on-year
Another angle also reflects the "desolation" of brokerage business. As a "window" directly facing investors, the overall operating revenue of the securities business department in Shenzhen in January was 1.039 billion yuan, down 13.49% year-on-year, and the total profit was 235 million yuan, which was "halved" year-on-year. Among them, the number of profitable business departments decreased by nearly 100 compared with the same period last year.
China Merchants Securities Co.Ltd(600999) non bank analysts said that assuming that the rental income of trading unit seats was reduced due to the fast bear market in the first quarter of this year, the income from selling financial products on a commission basis (income from institutional brokerage business) resulted in an increase of 10% to 58% of the income from securities trading on an agency basis. It can be estimated that in the first quarter of this year, the net income of brokerage business of listed securities companies (composed of net income from agency trading of securities, rental income of trading unit seats and income from selling financial products on a commission basis) was 27.5 billion yuan, down 4% year-on-year and 20% month on month.
China International Capital Corporation Limited(601995) financial team also said that the new fund market is cold and the commission income of securities companies selling financial products on a commission basis may be affected under market fluctuations. It is expected that the brokerage income of listed securities companies will decrease slightly by 2.9% year-on-year. The team also pointed out that the management fee sharing and buyer investment consulting income based on AUM are expected to be relatively stable month on month and still increase year-on-year.
Soochow Securities Co.Ltd(601555) non bank analysts are optimistic. It is expected that the net income of brokerage business in the first quarter will increase by 18.9% year-on-year to 37.3 billion yuan.
In terms of credit business, the scale of A-share financing and financing decreased in the first quarter of this year. As of March 30, the balance of the two cities and two financial institutions reported 1679652 billion yuan, a decrease of 152539 billion yuan over the beginning of the year.
Guotai Junan Securities Co.Ltd(601211) non bank analysts believe that the proportion of margin trading income of securities companies has increased year by year, driving the overall growth of credit intermediary business; Since February, affected by the market situation, the balance of the two financial institutions has shown an overall downward trend on the basis of the high level at the end of 2021 and early January, and the scale of stock pledge has continued to decline. Considering the factors of scale and rate, the net interest income in the first quarter of 2022 is expected to be 14.027 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 2.48%.
winners and losers are self operated
Proprietary business has been one of the "pillars" of securities companies' income in recent years. According to the data of China Securities Association, which was exclusively learned by the Chinese reporter of securities companies from securities companies, the self operated business contributed 27.48% of the operating revenue in 2021, ranking second, and the self operated business revenue of the whole industry increased by 9.36% year-on-year compared with last year. In previous years, the self operating performance of some securities companies is even better than that of brokerage business.
However, in the first quarter of this year, the situation may change, and the proprietary business may become a "drag bottle" for the performance of securities companies China International Capital Corporation Limited(601995) analysts said that investment income is expected to be affected by market fluctuations, which will drag down the single quarter performance Soochow Securities Co.Ltd(601555) non bank analysts predict that the industry's securities investment income (including changes in fair value) will decrease by 15% year-on-year to 25.8 billion yuan in the first quarter of this year.
Shenwan Hongyuan Group Co.Ltd(000166) analysts said that proprietary business is the winner of the performance growth of securities companies in the first quarter of this year, and the performance of leading securities companies with low proportion of equity proprietary business is expected to be superior.
China Merchants Securities Co.Ltd(600999) non bank analysts said that assuming the industry wide bond investment yield of 2.5% and the equity investment yield of - 14%, the industry self operated comprehensive investment yield is about 0.8%, and the investment business income is 24.2 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 20% and a month on month decrease of 29%.
expected positive growth in investment banks
At present, market financing activities are still active, which is good for investment banks. The above seller analysts are generally optimistic about the revenue performance of securities investment banks in the first quarter.
according to statistics, there were 182 A-share financing events in the first quarter of 2022, and the total amount of equity financing was 331.5 billion yuan, an increase of 2% over the same period last year
Among them, the amount of IPO underwriting increased significantly. There were 87 IPO projects in the first quarter of this year, raising 132.7 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 61%. The underwriting amount of additional issuance decreased, with 56 financing events and the raised amount of 81.4 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 49%.
From the perspective of equity underwriting ranking, the data show that China Securities Co.Ltd(601066) ranks first with a total underwriting amount of 60.716 billion yuan and Citic Securities Company Limited(600030) ranks second with 56.761 billion yuan. Huatai united, Haitong Securities Company Limited(600837) , China International Capital Corporation Limited(601995) all have more than 20 billion, ranking third to fifth in turn China Merchants Securities Co.Ltd(600999) and Guotai Junan Securities Co.Ltd(601211) the equity underwriting amount in the first quarter of this year exceeded 10 billion.
Especially in the list of IPO underwriting amount, China Securities Co.Ltd(601066) ranked first with an underwriting amount of 27.58 billion yuan, with 9 underwriters Haitong Securities Company Limited(600837) , Citic Securities Company Limited(600030) , Guotai Junan Securities Co.Ltd(601211) , China International Capital Corporation Limited(601995) ranked second to fifth with 18.169 billion yuan, 15.917 billion yuan, 11.082 billion yuan and 10.773 billion yuan respectively.
Dongxing Securities Corporation Limited(601198) , Anxin securities both entered the top 10 in IPO underwriting amount, ranking 7th and 10th with 6.612 billion and 2.719 billion respectively.
