Combined with the latest trading sentiment tracking, the market sentiment has been repeated, and the trading structure is inclined to the stable growth sectors such as infrastructure and real estate. On the one hand, the margin of leverage sentiment fell, foreign capital was also under pressure at this stage due to the narrowing of the interest rate gap between China and the United States, new low-end stocks and vulnerable stocks rose again, and the capital sentiment weakened in the short term; On the other hand, in terms of transaction structure, affected by the continuous fermentation of the epidemic, the economic pressure is further highlighted, the expectation of steady growth is also strengthened, the transaction structure is further concentrated, and the proportion of transactions in subdivided directions such as real estate, infrastructure and related construction machinery and cement manufacturing continues to rise, of which the proportion of real estate transactions has approached the historical quantile of 80%; The proportion of track traffic transactions such as medicine, Baijiu and new energy has dropped.
1. Transaction structure tracking
1) level of differentiation between rise and fall: the center of both rise and fall has dropped in the past Sunday, and the differentiation between February and August has declined. Among them, the median daily rise and fall of individual stocks in recent 5 days, 20 days and 60 days were – 0.24%, – 0.17% and – 0.24% respectively; The Income Differentiation of February 8th decreased to 22.19%, and the degree of transaction differentiation of February 8th was the same as that of last week, which was 25.
2) transaction concentration: the transaction concentration of individual stocks has declined. The transaction proportion of the top 1%, top 5% and top 10% stocks changed by – 0.75%, – 1.45% and – 1.56% month on month respectively, and their historical quantiles reached 65.3%, 65.7% and 71.6% respectively. The overall transaction concentration of the industry has rebounded, of which the proportion of transactions in the top 1%, top 5% and top 10% industries has changed by 1.1%, 0.87% and 1.03% month on month respectively, and their historical quantiles have reached 23.7%, 31.9% and 28% respectively.
3) trading differentiation level: the trading differentiation level of individual stocks has rebounded. The trading differentiation coefficients of the top 1%, top 5% and top 10% stocks have changed by 1%, 0.09% and – 0.21% month on month respectively, and their historical quantiles have reached 82.3%, 79.7% and 69.8% respectively. The level of trade differentiation in the industry has declined. The trade differentiation coefficients of the top 1%, top 5% and top 10% have changed by – 3.1%, 1.86% and 0.41% month on month respectively, and their historical quantiles have reached 77.2%, 75.9% and 72.9% respectively.
2. Market sentiment tracking
1) the 10 day moving average of the price limit ratio of all a fell back to 3.27, and the turnover rate of all a rose to 7.27%. 2) The VIX Index rose 1.92 month on month to 21.55. 3) The number of new stocks in the whole a rebounded month on month, and the number of new low stocks rebounded month on month. Among them, the number of 60 day high stocks rose to 121 on the 10th, and the number of 60 day low stocks rose to 422 on the 10th; At the same time, the 10 day moving average of the number of record high stocks was flat, which was 8 last week, and the 10 day moving average of the number of record low stocks rebounded to 79. 4) The number of trend dominated stocks rebounded. Among them, the proportion of stocks above the 60 day moving average fell to 24.53% month on month, hitting a record high in recent January, and the number of stocks rebounded to 52. 5) The proportion of MACD strong stocks in the whole a market fell back to 14.78%, and the proportion of weak stocks rebounded to 30.26%. 6) All a leveraged funds sentiment fell back to 19.18%. 7) The net outflow of foreign trading ma30 decreased to 1.581 billion yuan.
3. Micro liquidity tracking
1) monetary tightening: the net return of money is 570 billion yuan, the short-term interest rate is down, the Shibor of each period is down, the interest rate of treasury bonds is down, the credit spread of each period is down, and the RMB exchange rate is flat last week.
2) capital supply: the new issuance scale of partial equity funds is about 2.795 billion yuan, the share of ETF increases by 12.634 billion month on month, the net outflow of funds going north is 6.557 billion yuan, and the financing balance decreases by 3.199 billion yuan month on month.
3) capital demand: there are four new IPOs, the initial financing scale is 4.397 billion yuan, the reduction scale of industrial capital is about 1.844 billion yuan, and there are no new fixed growth projects. In addition, the lifting pressure picked up month on month this week, with the lifting scale of about 60.026 billion yuan.
Risk tips: 1. Increased volatility in overseas markets; 2. Macroeconomic fluctuations exceeding expectations; 3. There are some errors in the statistical model.
