Last week, as Fed officials spared no effort to declare to the market that the Fed will do its best to fight inflation and support a larger interest rate increase, and the number of initial jobless claims last week was better than expected, which strengthened the market's expectation of the Fed's rapid tightening of monetary policy and supported the slight rise of the US dollar index. Under the above background, the RMB exchange rate was under pressure, but did not weaken significantly. It was mainly affected by the news that the United States exempted 352 tariffs on Chinese imports, and the RMB exchange rate stabilized on Friday. On the whole, the trend of RMB exchange rate last week was in line with our expectations, basically stable in the range of 6.35-6.40 and weak.
Since this year, in order to deal with high inflation, the Federal Reserve has started the pace of monetary policy normalization, while China is constantly releasing the policy signal of steady growth. In the context of the dislocation of monetary policies between China and the United States, the 10-year US interest margin narrowed from 1.1365% at the beginning of the year to 0.3202% on March 25, which has fallen to a relatively low 1. Last week, there was a net outflow of funds from the north for five consecutive days, with a total outflow of about 3.1 billion yuan. We believe that the interest rate gap between China and the United States has narrowed rapidly recently, so we need to pay close attention to the impact of cross-border capital flows on the RMB exchange rate. It is estimated that the operating range of the RMB exchange rate this week is 6.335-6.415. It is suggested that enterprises with foreign exchange purchase demand lock their risk exposure in advance and wait for foreign exchange settlement.
Risk tips: the situation in Russia and Ukraine, the spread of the global epidemic, the shift process of monetary policies in various countries, and the progress of global economic recovery
