The situation in Ukraine and Russia has been subject to twists and turns. On April 5, Ukrainian President Zelensky changed his willingness for peace talks and said that Ukraine would not even talk about the provisions on demilitarization and Nazism in the treaty negotiated by Russia and Ukraine. Ukraine is ready to join NATO. He also said that if all parties want to end the war, including Western partners, they need to continue their efforts. And on April 7, EU countries agreed to ban the import of coal from Russia, extending the sanctions to the Russian energy industry for the first time. The situation in Ukraine and Russia still has obvious disturbance to the medium-term supply of crude oil, iea2 The 400million barrel storage plan still fails to fully compensate for the loss of Russian supply.
The Fed’s tightening expectations threaten global equity markets. The minutes of the Federal Reserve’s interest rate meeting in March significantly increased the probability of raising interest rates by 50bp at the meeting in May, and the table reduction process was far more than expected. It is planned to reduce the scale of assets held by the Federal Reserve by up to $95 billion per month, while the highest scale of the previous table reduction is $50 billion per month. The last round of shrinkage statement is obviously bad for equity assets, so we need to be vigilant against the adjustment risk of global stock index in the future. Since 2007, the balance sheet of the Federal Reserve has a significant correlation with equity assets, a significant positive correlation with US stocks as high as 0.9, a negative correlation with US bond interest rate as high as -0.849, and a certain positive correlation with Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 of 0.68; However, the correlation between the Fed’s balance sheet and commodities was low, recording 0.56.
China’s economy is not booming in the peak season. Although China’s recent steady growth has been favorable, including the steady growth proposed by the national Standing Committee on April 6, the deregulation of real estate policies in nearly 70 cities this year, and the year-on-year increase of 84% in new contracts signed in China Railway Group Limited(601390) the first quarter, the policy is still in the transmission stage, and the real economy is not booming in the peak season. At the macro level, under the repeated impact of the Chinese epidemic, the three major indexes of official manufacturing, non manufacturing and comprehensive PMI fell in March, and the current severe epidemic situation in Shanghai will also drag down the follow-up Chinese exports. At the meso level, in March, the land acquisition of national real estate enterprises fell by nearly 50% year-on-year, and the sales of excavators and heavy trucks still fell sharply year-on-year. At the micro level, as of the week of April 7, the thread output, factory warehouse and social warehouse all changed from decline to increase. The social warehouse ended the previous four consecutive weeks of decline. Our latest research shows that the national downstream construction improved only slightly year-on-year and month on month last week, and the peak season is not prosperous.
In terms of commodities, under the game of strong expectation and weak reality, it is still necessary to observe the signal of stabilizing and further improving domestic demand, and domestic demand industrial products remain neutral; Crude oil chain commodities need to be vigilant against the easing of the situation in Ukraine and Russia and the adjustment risks brought about by the conclusion of the US Iran nuclear negotiations. In addition, on April 6, the IEA said that the total storage volume of its Member States reached 240 million barrels, which is also assumed to be released within six months, equivalent to an additional supply of about 1.3 million barrels / day. On the other hand, the market generally expects the range of supply loss in Russia to be 2-3 million barrels / day (the actual range of loss remains to be confirmed by future data), Therefore, IEA member states’ stockpile dumping can not fully fill the supply gap caused by Russian sanctions. Combined with the information that the situation in Ukraine and Russia is still in twists and turns, crude oil and crude oil chain commodities remain in a high and volatile situation; Affected by the situation in Ukraine and Russia, the global price of chemical fertilizer continues to rise, Shenzhen Agricultural Products Group Co.Ltd(000061) based on the supply bottleneck and cost transmission, the bullish logic is still relatively smooth, and with the support of dry weather, global inflation transmission and other factors, soft commodities such as cotton and sugar also deserve attention; The first interest rate hike by the Federal Reserve is difficult to solve due to the superposition of high inflation in the United States, and the global precious metal ETF position continues to rise close to the historical high against the background of approaching 2.7% of 10Y US bonds. We still maintain the view of bargain hunting and long of precious metals.
Strategy:
Commodity Futures: Shenzhen Agricultural Products Group Co.Ltd(000061) (cotton, sugar, soybean, soybean meal, etc.), precious metals are cautious; Industrial products for external demand (crude oil and its cost related chain commodities, new energy non-ferrous metals), and industrial products for domestic demand (black building materials, traditional non-ferrous aluminum, chemical industry and coal);
Stock index futures: neutral.
Risk point: geopolitical risk; China curbs commodity overheating; The risk of Sino US game is rising; The situation in the Taiwan Strait; Iran nuclear talks.
