1. Macro news and important events:
Evans, the long-term dovish chairman of the Chicago Fed, said that at the May meeting, a 50 basis point interest rate increase was worth considering and was highly likely. A rapid shift to a neutral interest rate is appropriate, and the neutral federal funds rate is expected to be in the range of 2.25% - 2.5%.
According to a Reuters survey, economists believe that the average CPI of the United States will reach 6.8% in 2022, 3.0% and 2.5% in 2023 and 2024 respectively, both higher than the expectation in March. The US economy is 25% likely to decline in one year and 40% in two years. More than half of the respondents believe that the Fed will raise interest rates by 50 basis points at its meetings in May and June.
Around noon on the 11th, the interest rate spread between China and the United States on 10-year Treasury bonds was upside down, the first time since 2010 The interest rate spread between China and the United States is expected to be limited, but the interest rate spread between China and the United States is expected to be limited.
According to the data released by the National Bureau of statistics, in March, CPI increased by 1.5% year-on-year, unchanged month on month; PPI rose 8.3% year-on-year and 1.1% month on month.
According to the central bank, the balance of broad money (M2) at the end of March was 249.77 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 9.7%, expected to be 9.4% and 9.2% in February. At the end of March, the stock of social financing scale was 325.64 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 10.6%.
The State Council issued a circular requiring that all efforts be made to smooth the traffic and transportation channels; Optimize the control measures for epidemic prevention passage, and do not arbitrarily restrict the passage of freight vehicles and drivers and passengers; Fully organize the transfer of emergency materials; Effectively guarantee the passage of key materials and postal express; Strengthen the service guarantee of employees.
