Event: in March, the stock of social finance increased by 10.6% year-on-year, with the previous value of 10.2%; RMB loans increased by 3.13 trillion yuan (expected to be 2.64 trillion yuan), an increase of 400 billion yuan year-on-year; The year-on-year growth rate of M2 increased by 0.5 percentage points to 9.7% (market expectation of 9.1%), and M1 was unchanged from 4.7% of the previous month. The overall performance of the data was better than market expectations.
Credit supply exceeded market expectations and rose month on month, but the structural data are still flawed. The performance of residential loans continued to be weak, and real estate and consumption remained weak. Under the epidemic and employment pressure, residents' leverage decreased, and the continuation of long-term and short-term loans increased negatively year-on-year. In March, the performance of real estate sales was still poor. Some cities were greatly affected by the epidemic. The multi City real estate policy was gradually liberalized, but the market was still cold. The industry as a whole is still in the period of confidence reconstruction, and it is expected to launch more substantive local favorable policies in the future.
Medium and long-term loans of enterprises rose slightly year-on-year, short-term loans and bill financing are still the main driving items, and the phenomenon that banks rely on bill financing to offset indicators continues. Although corporate loans increased year-on-year, the investment willingness of the real economy has not yet improved significantly. In the first quarter, the overall medium and long-term loans were still not strong, and the policy force appeared, but the enterprise deposits remained increased, and the attitude towards accelerating production was still relatively conservative.
The process of credit easing was promoted slowly, with government special bonds, new RMB loans and non-standard financing as the main driving items. The special bonds of local governments maintained year-on-year growth, the pace of capital construction funds was ahead in the first quarter, and the government continued to make efforts. Corporate bond financing maintained growth under steady growth, and equity financing increased month on month. The off balance sheet non-standard financing base improved year-on-year, and the off balance sheet bill financing increased the most year-on-year. From the absolute value, it is still low, but it can be seen that the non-standard pressure drop is significantly weaker than that in the same period last year.
The year-on-year growth rate of M2 continued to rise, the growth rate of M1 was flat, and the recovery of the vitality of the real economy was blocked. The deposits of residents and enterprises increased month on month, and the Financial deposits turned negative, with a year-on-year decrease. Corporate spending and residents' willingness to consume remain weak. Credit side growth and fiscal expenditure increased m2. Under the policy of steady growth, fiscal expenditure is expected to continue to exert force.
Social finance is stronger than expected, mainly driven by credit and government bonds, as well as the role of non-standard low base. However, the resident credit end and enterprise long-term loan are weak, and the real estate has not been in place. The policy grew steadily, and the issuance of local government special bonds was large in the first quarter, but the epidemic in March affected residents' house purchase, consumption and some enterprise industrial chains. Residents' financing demand is still weak, and it still takes time for real estate sales to recover. Credit extension will continue to be promoted, and real estate and infrastructure construction are still the main focus. However, the process of credit extension is still slow due to the constraints of real estate sales. Monetary policy will also be adjusted in coordination. Structural policy adjustment will increase moderately, and real estate policy will continue to relax.
Risk factors: the tightening of the Federal Reserve exceeded expectations, the tightening of epidemic development and prevention and control exceeded expectations, and residents' consumption remained depressed.
