Events
On April 11, 2022, the central bank released the financial data for March 2022. In March, the new loans were 3.13 trillion yuan and the expected loans were 2.64 trillion yuan, an increase of 395.1 billion yuan year-on-year; In March, the scale of social financing was 4.65 trillion yuan, an increase of 1.28 trillion yuan year-on-year. The growth rate of social financing stock was 10.6%, up 0.4 percentage points from the previous month; In March, M2 increased by 9.7% year-on-year, up 0.5 percentage points from the previous month.
Comments
The new scale of social finance significantly exceeded expectations, and the financing structure needs to be further improved. In March, the scale of social financing was 4.65 trillion yuan, an increase of 1.28 trillion yuan year-on-year. The main contributing factors were bill financing, government bonds and enterprise short-term loans. Among them, bill financing and enterprise short-term loans increased by more than 900 billion yuan year-on-year, which shows that the pressure of enterprise cash flow is still large, which is also related to the shortage of liquidity at the end of the quarter. However, the medium and long-term loans of enterprises are still weak, but the medium and long-term loans of enterprises rebounded in March. However, both short-term residential loans and medium and long-term loans showed weak performance. In March, the medium and long-term loans and short-term loans of new residents increased by 250.4 billion yuan and 139.4 billion yuan respectively year-on-year. Affected by the epidemic, residents' travel and offline consumption are limited, and residents' consumption and house purchase are weak. At present, under the urban policy, China's real estate market is in the recovery stage as a whole, but it takes time for real estate sales to return to normal.
In addition, it is noteworthy that the net financing of government bonds in March was 705.2 billion yuan, which was significantly stronger than the same period in previous years, especially the special bonds of local governments, which increased significantly compared with the previous stage. The accelerated issuance of special government bonds reflects the strength of the steady growth policy. At present, China is suffering from the severe impact of the epidemic. This epidemic has the greatest impact after the epidemic in 2020. Both supply and demand are weak. The urgency and necessity of the steady growth policy have been rapidly improved. Pine real estate and songjijian are the general direction of the steady growth policy.
M2 rebounded significantly year-on-year, but M1 was the same year-on-year as last month. In March, M2 increased by 9.7% year-on-year, up 0.5 percentage points from the previous month; The year-on-year growth rate of M1 was 4.7%, the same as that in February. After the Spring Festival, some residents' deposits will be converted into enterprise deposits. The increase in fiscal expenditure also led to a year-on-year decrease in fiscal deposits. At present, the conflict between Russia and Ukraine and the epidemic have a great impact on the economy. The follow-up monetary policy is still stable and loose, and the probability of reducing reserve requirements and interest rates has increased.
Risk tips: the overseas epidemic fluctuates more than expected, the downstream demand is less than expected, and the monetary policy changes.
