Key points:
Events
In March, CPI grew by 1.5% year-on-year, up 0.6 percentage points from 0.9% last month, and CPI grew by 0.0% month on month. In March, PPI increased by 8.3% year-on-year, down 0.5 percentage points from 8.8% last month, and PPI increased by 1.1% month on month.
Although pork prices fell, non food items boosted CPI
Food is still a stable item in the rise of CPI. Among them, the price of pork decreased by 41.4%, 1.1 percentage points lower than that of the previous month, which is the main drag in food. On the other hand, the price of fresh vegetables increased by 17.2% from a decrease of 0.1% last month, which also increased significantly compared with the same period last year. Compared with previous periods, although the chain ratio of food items decreased due to the fall in demand and sufficient supply after the festival, the chain ratio decline was relatively flat. The reason is that food prices have a certain support due to the rise in international prices of wheat, corn and soybeans and the impact of China's epidemic situation. In terms of non food items, the rise in energy prices has promoted the obvious month on month rise in transportation and communication prices, which is the main driving factor for the month on month rise of non food items. Daily necessities and services rose by 0.2% month on month, reflecting certain anti seasonal characteristics and affected by the impact of the epidemic on supply to a certain extent.
Although PPI fell year-on-year, it was still high month on month
The price of means of production increased by 10.7% year-on-year, 0.7% lower than the previous value, and the price of means of living increased by 0.9% year-on-year, the growth rate being the same as that of the previous month. Affected by the geographical conflict between Russia and Ukraine, energy prices rose significantly. Among them, coal mining and washing industry increased by 53.9%, expanding by 8.5 percentage points; The oil and gas exploitation industry rose 47.4%, expanding by 5.5 percentage points; The oil, coal and other fuel processing industry rose 32.8%, expanding by 2.6 percentage points. However, due to the base increase caused by the continuous rise of industrial product prices last year, the year-on-year growth rate of PPI will still decline.
Inflation pressure under geopolitical conflict
As European spring ploughing is affected by geographical conflicts, the imbalance between global food supply and demand may gradually appear. At present, the pork project with large weight still has a stabilizing effect on CPI. However, combined with the slaughter volume, the inflection point of this round of pig cycle may come in the second half of this year, thus pushing up the inflation center in the second half of this year. Compared with CPI, the future trend of PPI is more uncertain, because PPI is greatly affected by global commodity prices. Due to the uncertainty of the Russian Ukrainian war and the amplification effect of global capital market sentiment, the sub items of means of production in PPI may be greatly disturbed. However, with the continuation of geographical conflicts and the increase of trade sanctions, energy prices may remain for a longer time. Under the influence of the high base of PPI last year, the decline of PPI year-on-year growth rate is still a probability event, but the decline rate may slow down than expected.
Risk tips
Geographical conflicts exceeded expectations, epidemic development exceeded expectations, and inflation exceeded expectations
