In April 2022, the "confidence index of chief economist of China first finance and economics" released by China first finance and Economics Research Institute was 49.09, lower than the 50 boom and bust line. The epidemic situation is repeated. In this survey, economists expect that China's economic recovery lasting for several months may be interrupted. They expect that the overall economic operation pressure will increase in April 2022, and more active policies are needed to support the bottom.
In this survey, the average forecast of 17 chief economists for GDP growth in 2022 is 5.19%, of which more than 40% of economists believe that with the support of policies, 5.5% of economic growth can be achieved this year, while other economists believe that it is difficult to achieve the GDP growth target set by the two sessions under the current economic environment. They all believed that China's economy recovered significantly in the first quarter, with a correction compared with the fourth quarter of last year. The average GDP growth forecast in the first quarter was 4.49%.
In terms of prices, the average year-on-year growth rate of CPI predicted by economists is 1.31%, and the average year-on-year growth rate of PPI is 8.11%. The data on investment and consumption will be lower than the level of the previous two months. The predicted average cumulative growth rate of fixed asset investment in March is 8.55%, and the predicted average year-on-year growth rate of total retail sales of social consumer goods is 0.03%. The average forecast of trade surplus in March is US $32.708 billion, and the year-on-year data of import and export will be lower than that of the previous two months.
According to the survey, economists expect China's monetary policy to remain loose. The predicted average value of new loans in March is 2715.2 billion yuan, the predicted average value of total social financing is 3.4 trillion yuan, and the predicted average year-on-year growth rate of M2 is 9.16%.
Economists' average forecast for the exchange rate of RMB against the US dollar at the end of April is 6.38. At the same time, they will lower their expectation for the exchange rate of RMB against the US dollar at the end of the year from the forecast average of 6.43 at the end of last month to 6.46, which means that the RMB exchange rate will appreciate by 1.76% compared with the level at the end of March.
