Research conclusion
Event: on April 11, the central bank released the latest financial data. In March, social finance increased by 4.65 trillion yuan, an increase of 1273.8 billion yuan over the same period last year; The stock of social finance was 325.64 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 10.6% (the previous value was 10.2%).
In March, the new social finance and credit exceeded market expectations, partially eliminating the market's doubts about credit easing. In March, the new social finance increased by 1.27 trillion year-on-year, with a total increase of 1.7 trillion year-on-year in the first quarter. The driving forces driving the growth of new social finance are RMB loans, trust loans and government bonds: (1) 705.2 billion new government bonds increased by 392.1 billion year-on-year. The forward development of finance will support social finance in the first half of the year. The national standing committee made it clear that the amount of special bonds issued in advance should be issued before the end of May, The quota issued this year will be issued before the end of September; (2) RMB loans increased by 3.2 trillion, an increase of 481.7 billion year-on-year; (3) The three off balance sheet items totaled 13.3 billion, of which trust loans improved significantly, with a year-on-year decrease of 153.2 billion, or it indicates that the regulatory pressure has been reduced after the transition period of the new asset management regulations. In addition, some of the trust investments have been invested in real estate, and the demand for infrastructure financing under the background of steady growth will also drive trust financing; (4) The performance of direct financing was stable, with bond financing and stock financing slightly increased by 8.7 billion and 17.5 billion respectively year-on-year.
Credit continues the previous characteristics - strong in the short term, weak in the medium and long term, strong in enterprises and weak in residents. (1) Strong short-term and weak medium and long-term: medium and long-term loans decreased by 2356 trillion (previous value - 1 trillion), while short-term loans and bill financing increased by 765.9 billion (previous value 630.1 billion), of which bill financing increased by 471.2 billion (previous value 490.7 billion), indicating that when the financing demand is not strong, banks continue to offset the amount with bill financing; (2) Strong enterprises and weak residents: both short-term loans and medium - and long-term loans for residents increased less year-on-year, with a year-on-year increase of 139.4 billion (former value - 22 billion) and 250.4 billion (- 457.2 billion) respectively. The epidemic fermentation suppressed some consumption and house purchase demand. In the first quarter, the proportion of residents who tended to save more reached 54.7%, the highest since the data was released; The short-term and medium and long-term loans of enterprises increased by 434.1 billion (former value of 161.4 billion) and 14.8 billion (former value of - 594.8 billion) respectively year-on-year. The medium and long-term loans of enterprises reversed the situation of significantly less increase year-on-year in February, or were boosted by the improvement of financing demand in the infrastructure field. In the first quarter, the demand index of infrastructure loans increased to 67.3%, an increase of 6.5 percentage points over the previous quarter, but the total medium and long-term loans of enterprises still increased by 520 billion year-on-year in the first quarter, On the one hand, due to the high base in the first quarter of last year, on the other hand, it may be dragged down by real estate financing.
M1 was flat year-on-year, while M2 was higher year-on-year. M1 in March was 4.7% year-on-year, unchanged from the previous month; M2 was 9.7% year-on-year, an increase of 0.5 percentage points over the previous month. Specifically, the newly added fiscal deposits were - 842.5 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 357.1 billion, corresponding to the acceleration of fiscal expenditure and the increase of funds invested in infrastructure construction; Residents' deposits increased by 762.3 billion year-on-year, which may be related to the recent increase in financial redemption and the improvement of residents' willingness to save; Non financial enterprises and non banking financial institutions increased by 922.1 billion and decreased by 304 billion respectively year-on-year.
While the total amount of social finance rebounded, structural defects remained. Looking forward to the follow-up, the accelerated issuance of special bonds and infrastructure related financing needs brought by fiscal expansion will continue to support social finance. However, although the new social finance exceeds expectations, there are still some defects in the structure, reflecting the weak consumption of residents and the limited effect of real estate repair. The fermentation of the epidemic has further amplified this problem and affected the medium and long-term financing needs of enterprises. The total monetary policy is still expected.
Risk tips
The local spread of the epidemic affects the stability of the supply chain, and then inhibits the investment and financing needs of enterprises;
The Fed's monetary policy is tightening more than expected.
