The series of special reports on the rebalancing of coal trade in the post Russian Ukrainian era attempts to explore and prospect the global coal trade pattern in the post Russian Ukrainian era. This paper mainly combs and deduces the flow of coal in Russia after the war.
The global coal trade pattern under the conflict between Russia and Ukraine is changeable: the geographical contradiction between Russia and Ukraine is escalating. Countries have imposed sanctions on Russian energy, and Russia has also given anti sanctions. At this stage, Indonesia dominates the global power coal trade, Australia dominates the global coking coal trade, and Russia has a certain influence in the coal trade pattern. After the escalation of geographical friction, the trend of reconstruction of global coal trade pattern is almost irreversible. At this stage, after the change of local trade pattern, the increase of overseas coal price is significantly higher than that of China. On the one hand, it is due to the impact of structural demand on the supply and demand of producing areas, on the other hand, it is due to the increase of transportation costs under the new pattern.
The coal industry in Russia has a certain influence in the global energy industry. Under the current situation, the flow direction of Russian coal trade will continue to change.
Conjecture 1 on the whereabouts of Russian coal: increasing exports to China? It may be feasible for Russia to increase exports of coal to China. The increase of Russian coal exports to China may come from the reduction of exports to Japan and South Korea. For a long time, the export of Russian coking coal to China has the advantage of price comparison. Russia’s coal transportation distance is long and the cost is high. Considering the limited transportation capacity under sea land intermodal transportation, the proportion of land transportation of exports to China is expected to increase.
Conjecture 2 on the whereabouts of Russian coal: will India increase its procurement scale? Although India Russia trade relations are expected to upgrade, the economy of Russian coal exports to India is poor, and the future trade scale may be limited. India’s energy endowment is similar to that of China, and coal is the main energy. India’s coal import demand has existed for a long time. Due to the poor quality of Indian coking coal, it is necessary to import coking coal from overseas. The transportation cost of Russian coking coal exported to India is higher than that exported to China, and the export to China has more comparative advantages. At present, Australia is the first source country of India’s coking coal imports. The cost of Russian coking coal is better than Australian coking coal, but India Australia trade policy is more friendly.
Investment suggestion: in the process of reshaping the global coal trade pattern or under the new pattern, overseas trade coal prices are easy to rise but difficult to fall. Based on this logic, Yankuang energy, which accounts for a relatively high proportion of overseas production capacity, benefits the most. Under the prospect that overseas coal prices will remain high for a long time, it can form a more powerful support for China’s coal prices, and China’s coal enterprises are expected to maintain a high boom. Relatively optimistic about Shaanxi Coal Industry Company Limited(601225) , China Shenhua Energy Company Limited(601088) .
Risk tip: Western countries stop sanctions; Russia made compromises and concessions; The transport capacity of the new trade line is quickly matched, and the freight rate is greatly reduced; Countries accelerate the elimination of coal.
