Key investment points
As a clean, efficient and sustainable energy carrier, hydrogen is one of the key to deal with climate change. The world is experiencing the third energy revolution from fossil energy to renewable energy. Governments have formed a high consensus on addressing climate change and “carbon neutrality”. With the accelerating process of global energy structure transformation, more and more countries have actively introduced various policies to promote the development of renewable energy. More than 120 countries around the world have announced carbon neutralization schedules. The green hydrogen produced by electrolyzing water with renewable electricity can truly achieve zero generation and emission of carbon dioxide in the process of production and consumption. As a renewable energy with abundant reserves and easy access, hydrogen energy has attracted the attention of governments over the years. Hydrogen energy has clean and low-carbon properties and potential for cross-border applications. It can be widely used in transportation, industry and other fields, such as fuel cell vehicles and hydrogen metallurgy. At the same time, it is also a high-quality alternative energy in high energy consumption and high emission industries.
Hydrogen energy has won the support of governments. United States: promote the development of hydrogen energy through tax cuts. California alone plans to achieve 1000 + hydrogen stations and 1 million + fuel cell vehicles by 2030; Germany: announced to invest 1.4 billion euros in public hydrogen stations, hydrogen energy vehicles and other fields to establish funds; With 2 billion euros of private investment; Japan: intended to create a “hydrogen society”; South Korea: release the development roadmap of hydrogen energy application fields such as fuel cell vehicles and hydrogen refueling stations in 2022 and 2040, and provide financial subsidies for hydrogen refueling stations. On March 23, the national development and Reform Commission and the Energy Administration jointly issued the medium and long term plan for the development of hydrogen energy industry (20212035). The medium and long term plan for hydrogen energy defines the important role of hydrogen energy in the transformation. The development of hydrogen energy has changed from fuel cell vehicles to the whole industrial sector. At the same time, it also highlights the important position of hydrogen production from renewable energy, and proposes that green hydrogen will reach 1 China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) 00000 tons / year in 2025, which is the first medium and long-term plan for hydrogen energy industry, The hydrogen energy subsidy policy is expected to continue in 2022.
The fuel cell vehicle industry chain covers upstream hydrogen production, hydrogen storage and hydrogenation supporting manufacturers, fuel cell power system manufacturers and downstream vehicle manufacturers. The core of the industrial chain is the fuel cell power system. Fuel cell power system mainly includes fuel cell system, drive motor and control system, vehicle control system, auxiliary power supply and hydrogen storage device. Hydrogen fuel cell is the core part of the hydrogen energy industry chain, accounting for 40% of the value of the whole vehicle. The catalyst, bipolar sector and proton exchange membrane in the stack are important components in the industry chain, dominated by overseas supply, with large domestic substitution space.
Investment suggestion: since 2015, auto enterprises represented by Yutong and Futian have started the R & D and sales of fuel cell vehicles. At present, the cumulative sales volume of hydrogen energy vehicles in China is nearly 9000. With the continuous development of hydrogen energy subsidy policy in 2022, it is expected to drive the industrial chain to continue to increase its volume. Pay attention to three main investment lines: 1) driven by the large amount of hydrogen energy heavy trucks in China, it is suggested to pay attention to Shanxi Meijin Energy Co.Ltd(000723) , Beijing Sinohytec Co.Ltd(688339) , etc; 2) It is expected to accelerate the localization of core technologies and materials, and pay attention to Dongyue Group, Sino-Platinum Metals Co.Ltd(600459) etc; 3) It is suggested to pay attention to Zhongshan Broad-Ocean Motor Co.Ltd(002249) , Weichai Power Co.Ltd(000338) , etc.
Risk factors: the sales volume of hydrogen fuel vehicles does not meet expectations; Industry competition intensifies; The price of raw materials continues to rise; The fuel cell industry policy did not meet expectations; Safety risks.
