Core view:
The growth rate of infrastructure investment picked up. From January to February 2022, the national fixed asset investment (excluding farmers) was 5076.3 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 12.2%. Among them, the investment in fixed assets (excluding farmers) increased by 0.66% in February. From January to February, the growth rate of broad infrastructure investment was 8.61%, and the growth rate of broad infrastructure remained at a high level below the high base of 34.95% in the same period last year. At present, the international situation is grim and complex, the epidemic has repeatedly impacted, and the downward pressure on the economy is great. As one of the “troikas” driving economic growth, the current supporting role of fixed asset investment is prominent.
The issuance of special bonds was accelerated, and the growth rate of infrastructure investment in the whole year can be expected. On March 29, the executive meeting of the State Council was held. The meeting deployed to make good use of government bonds to expand effective investment. The meeting proposed that we should pay close attention to issuing the amount of remaining special bonds and give preference to regions with strong solvency and sufficient project reserves. The quota issued in advance last year will be issued before the end of May, and the quota issued this year will be issued before the end of September. This is the third time that the executive meeting of the State Council has strengthened the management of the use of local bonds since November 24 last year and January 10 this year. From January to February this year, local governments added 877.5 billion yuan of special bonds, and 26.4 billion yuan of special bonds were added in the first three months of last year. The issuance of special bonds has accelerated significantly this year, and the growth rate of infrastructure investment is expected to rebound.
Photovoltaic building integration welcomes opportunities. On October 31, 2021, the Ministry of housing and urban rural development issued the national standard general code for building energy conservation and renewable energy utilization, which will be implemented from April 1, 2022. According to the document, the Cecep Solar Energy Co.Ltd(000591) system shall be installed in new buildings, and the addition or transformation of Cecep Solar Energy Co.Ltd(000591) system on existing buildings must be subject to the safety review of building structure to meet the safety requirements of building structure Cecep Solar Energy Co.Ltd(000591) building integrated application system design shall be completed simultaneously with the architectural design. The integrated development of photovoltaic buildings has entered the fast lane.
Industry concentration has increased, and the allocation value of leading enterprises has become prominent. The development of the construction industry has entered a stable period. The market share of newly signed orders of the eight central construction enterprises increased from 24.38% in 2013 to 37.88% in 2021. The concentration of the construction industry is expected to continue to improve. The construction index PE is 10.95 times, and the 10-year historical quantile is 41.41%, with a high safety margin. It is suggested to pay attention to investment opportunities in infrastructure, assembly building, green building, carbon neutralization and other fields. 8 ( China State Construction Engineering Corporation Limited(601668) . SH), Shandong Hi-Speed Road&Bridge Co.Ltd(000498) ( Shandong Hi-Speed Road&Bridge Co.Ltd(000498) . SZ), etc. It is suggested to pay attention to Anhui Honglu Steel Construction(Group) Co.Ltd(002541) ( Anhui Honglu Steel Construction(Group) Co.Ltd(002541) . SZ), Shanghai Construction Group Co.Ltd(600170) ( Shanghai Construction Group Co.Ltd(600170) . SH), Shanghai Tunnel Engineering Co.Ltd(600820) ( Shanghai Tunnel Engineering Co.Ltd(600820) . SH), Sichuan Road & Bridge Co.Ltd(600039) ( Sichuan Road & Bridge Co.Ltd(600039) . SH), etc.
Risk warning: the risk of decline in fixed asset investment; The risk that the recovery of accounts receivable is less than expected; Risk of new orders falling short of expectations.
